درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

Iran attempts to expand the non-oil exportsfor diminishing the dependency on oil export income. This research tries to examine the export and trade balance of Iran's agricultural sector. Accordingly, the gravity model was used for export, applying panel data from 1997 to 2017. Also, the trade balance of Iran's total agricultural and the related sectors’commodities was examined. It should be noted that for the trade balance, time series data from 1978 to 2018 were used. The results of the gravity model show a negative effect for the variable of distance. The coefficients of Iran’s per capita GDP and also the GDP of trading partners are positive, as expected. It was found that a one percent increase in the per capita GDP of Iran causes a rise of 3.42 percent in the export of agricultural products; however,that of importing countries haslow statistical significance. Based on the coefficient obtained for the population, an increase in the population of the importing countries raises the demand for Iran's agricultural products.The degree of trade openness revealed a positive and significant effect on the export of agricultural products. The coefficient for the real exchange rate was found to be around 0.9 percent. It was also found that the volatility of the exchange rate is related directly to the export of agricultural products. Comprehensive sanctions have a negative and significant effect, while less restricting sanctions have an insignificant effect on the export of agricultural products. The global economic crisis has also had a dampening effect on exports. For trade balance, the results show that the value added of the agriculture has a positive effect on the trade balance of entire agriculture and sectors. The real exchange rate has a negative effect on the trade balance of agricultural commodities as a whole and livestock and agronomy sectors, confirming the J-Curve theory while it was not supported for the horticultural sector. Also, the variable of exchange rate volatility was included in the model using two measures of positive and negative series of exchange rate changes and the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) effect, but their effect on the trade balance was not the same in terms of both the direction and statistical significance. The trade openness for the agricultural and horticultural sector was found with a positive coefficient, indicating that their production is based on comparative advantage. However, for the sectors of agronomy and livestock, it illustrated a negative effect. Sanctions have also harmed the trade balance.

In addition to imposing a negative impact on public health, Covid-19 has made the world face a huge financial-economic crisis. The worldwide spread of the coronavirus has also affected the volume of transactions and the value of stocks. Since the food market is more affected under crisis conditions, this relationship has been investigated in the stock exchange in the present study. In order to investigate the effect of Covid-19 patients on the stock index value of food industry companies as well as the relationship between risk and stock index value, the official daily data of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education and the Financial Information Processing Center of Iran were collected from March 3, 2021 when the first report was announced, to June 2, 2021. Mean Conditional heteroscedasticityvariance regression models were used in the current study. The statistical model specification tests showed that, first, the assumption of heteroscedasticitywas rejected and the needto useheteroscedasticitymodels was proved. Secondly, the asymmetry assumption was accepted. Model estimation results showed a relationship between the numbers of Covid-19 patients with the stock value of the food industry that was an increase in the number of infected people causes a decrease in the stock value of the food industry. Therefore, like other economic sectors, the capital market was affected by the Covid-19 crisis, and increasing exchange rate as a competing market had a negative effect on the stock price index. Also, considering the relationship between risk and stock value of food industries, as expected, there was an inverse and significant relationship between risk and stock value of food industry companies. In other words, an increase in risk leads to a decrease in the stock price of food industries.