اثر تحریم های اقتصادی بر عرضه و تقاضای مسکن از کانال نرخ ارز (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
تحریم های اقتصادی با ایجاد مانع برای بخش خارجی، فضای نابسامان و آشفته در اقتصاد، موجب تغییر در نرخ ارز و در پی آن تغییر در متغیرهای دیگر ازجمله عرضه و تقاضای مسکن می شوند. از این رو هدف این پژوهش، بررسی اثرگذاری تحریم های اقتصادی بر عرضه و تقاضای مسکن از کانال نرخ ارز می باشد. برای این منظور از داده های فصلی استانی دوره 1390-1400 و برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از مدل رگرسیون به ظاهر نامرتبط (SUR) استفاده شده است. یافته های این پژوهش نشان می دهد تولید ناخالص داخلی استانی، قیمت مسکن و تورم بر تقاضا اثر مثبت و متغیرهای شاخص بورس، نرخ ارز و تحریم، بر تقاضای مسکن اثر منفی داشته اند. در طرف عرضه نیز متغیرهای قیمت مسکن، تعداد پروانه های ساختمانی صادر شده و تورم بر عرضه مسکن اثر مثبت و نرخ ارز، تحریم و قیمت مصالح ساختمانی بر عرضه مسکن اثر منفی داشته اند. واردات و تحریم، نرخ ارز را افزایش و صادرات، نرخ ارز را کاهش داده است. بر این پایه تحریم هم اثر مستقیم و هم از مسیر نرخ ارز اثر غیر مستقیم بر کاهش عرضه و تقاضای مسکن داشته است.Economic Sanctions, Exchange Rate and Housing Supply and Demand
Introduction
The occurrence of various shocks affects economic variables and change their course over time. Knowing the effecst of such shocks on economic variables is necessary for proper policy making in the economy. Therefore, many researches are conducted in this field in the world. Policy-making without recognizing these effects can result into tremendous challenges. One of the most effective shocks in the Iranian economy is the sanctions, especially the nuclear ones, which have had extensive effects on the behavior of brokers and consequently on the country's economic variables.
Economic sanctions cause a change in the exchange rate by creating a chaotic atmosphere and confusion in the economy, followed by a change in the supply and demand of housing. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of economic sanctions on the supply and demand of housing through the exchange rate channel. For this purpose, provincial seasonal data for the period of 2011-2021 have been used and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model has been used to analyze the data.
Methodology
Different methods can be used to estimate the model of the equations of this study, such as single equation methods or methods of solving simultaneous equations, whose estimates are different. The most common methods of solving simultaneous equations are the two-stage and three-stage least squares regression methods, as well as Seemingly Unrelated Regression, which is used when there is a relationship between the error part of the equations or there is a simultaneous correlation. The method discussed in this research is Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model or Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE), which was proposed in 1962 in econometrics.
Findings
The findings show that provincial gross domestic product, housing prices, and inflation have a positive effect on demand. The variables of stock market index, exchange rate and sanctions have had a negative effect on housing demand. On the supply side, housing price variables, the number of building permits issued, and inflation have a positive effect on the housing supply, while the exchange rate, sanctions, and the price of construction materials have a negative effect on the housing supply. Imports and embargoes have increased the exchange rate and exports have decreased the exchange rate. On this basis, the embargo has both a direct effect and an indirect effect through the exchange rate on the reduction of housing supply and demand.
Discussion and Conclusion
The estimation results for the first equation show that the variables are significant. It can also be said that provincial GDP, housing prices and general price level index have a positive effect on housing demand and with the increase of these variables, housing demand increases. According to the findings of the research and the analysis of the available data, the inverse relationship between the stock market index, the sanctions index and the exchange rate with housing demand is confirmed. So, with the growth of the stock market index, sanctions index and exchange rate, the demand for housing decreases.
In the preliminary results, the estimate for the second equation of the average effect of labor wages as a part of the production cost was not significant. But in estimates, the effect of the price of construction materials is significant. This variable was removed from the model. It can be said that one of the reasons for the non-significance of the wage variable is its low relative growth compared to the growth of housing prices and the growth of construction materials. On the other hand, the share of wages in housing construction costs is much lower than the costs of materials and other costs. This causes the wage rate in Iran to be less effective in housing supply. It can also be said that an increase in the provincial GDP, housing prices and the number of building permits issued increases housing supply.
The results of the third equation show that exports, imports, sanctions index, liquidity volume and provincial GDP explain 99% of exchange rate changes. It is worth mentioning that any increase in exports and sanctions index increases the exchange rate, but with the increase in imports, the exchange rate decreases, which shows the negative relationship between the exchange rate and imports. Since the exchange rate increases under the influence of the sanctions and the exchange rate has a negative effect on the housing demand, it can be said that sanctions have a direct effect on the economic activities of supply and demand due to the disruption of security, certainty and economic stability. Housing has an effect on the supply and demand of housing due to the change in the exchange rate
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