رتبه بندی پروژه های سرمایه گذاری ساخت وساز شهر مشهد و بررسی مشکلات آنان به ویژه بافت فرسوده اطراف حرم مطهر (به کمک روش خاکستری) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
بازسازی بافت پیرامونی حرم مطهر، در شهر مشهد، سال هاست که به علت حضور میلیونی زائران در این شهر، به یکی از موضوعات اصلی شهر مشهد، تبدیل شده است. یکی از مشکلات مهم در این زمینه، جذب سرمایه گذار برای اجرای پروژه های تعریف شده در این طرح است. این پژوهش به دنبال ارائه تحلیلی از رفتار سرمایه گذار در سطح اقتصاد خرد است و علل عدم تمایل سرمایه گذاران به مشارکت در این پروژه ها و مشکلات سرمایه گذاری در این بافت، بررسی می شود. انتخاب شاخص ترین مشکلات سرمایه گذاران در پروژه های اطراف حرم، با مصاحبه با کارشناسان طرح نوسازی، انجام شده و سپس طی پرسشنامه ای که از حدود 60 سرمایه گذار این منطقه تکمیل گردید، به واکاوی این علل پرداخته شد و سعی گردید تا اولویت سرمایه گذاران جهت سرمایه گذاری، مشخص شود. برای تجزیه وتحلیل داده های حاصل از پرسشنامه از روش «رتبه بندی خاکستری» استفاده گردید. نتایج نشان داد که سرمایه گذاران، انتخاب گزینه های ساخت وساز در پروژه های «مسکونی» و سپس «تجاری» را در سایر نقاط شهر مشهد، به پروژه های «تجاری-اقامتی اطراف حرم»، ترجیح داده اند؛ و ترتیب انتخاب آنان عبارت است از: (1) پروژه های مسکونی؛ (2) پروژه های تجاری؛ (3) پروژه های تجاری-اقامتی اطراف حرم و (4) پروژه های گردشگری و تفریحی. براساس فراوانی، مهم ترین مشکلات در پروژه های مسکونی؛ جابه جایی مدیران و کارکنان مسئول و عدم ثبات در پُست های واگذار شده به افراد در ادارات، در پروژه های تجاری؛ طولانی بودن فرایند قضایی و عدم تعامل کارآمد دستگاه های اجرایی، در پروژه های اطراف حرم؛ اخذ عوارض بالای شهرداری برای پروانه و عدم همکاری مالکین برای تملک و در پروژه های گردشگری؛ مشکلات مربوط به تغییر کاربری، می باشد.Ranking of investment projects in construction of Mashhad and studying their problems, especially the worn texture around the holy shrine (using gray method)
Aim: The reconstruction of urban context in the around of holy shrine in Mashhad has become to one of the main problems of Mashhad City for many years, due to the presence of millions of pilgrims in this city. Attracting investors is one of the important problems to implement the defined investment projects in this reconstruction plan. This research seeks to provide an analysis of the investor's behavior at the microeconomic level, and the reasons for investors' reluctance to participate in these projects and investment problems in this context are examined.
Method: Interviewing to the experts of the renovation project and inventors has used for selection of the most significant problems of investors in the investment projects around the holy shrine, and the causes has looked at through a questionnaire completed by about 60 investors of this region, and attempted to prioritize capital-investors. To analyze the data from questionnaires and interviews has used the Gray Ranking method.
In researches, the black is represented, as lack of information, but the white is full of information. Therefore, the information that is either incomplete or undetermined is called Grey. Grey system is a system having incomplete information. The Grey number in Grey system shows a number with less complete information. The Grey element represents an element with incomplete information. The Grey relation is the relation with incomplete information. Three terms are the typical symbols and features for Grey system and Grey phenomenon. There are six styles for the theory of Grey system.
(1) Grey generation: in method is data processing to supplement information. It is aimed to process those complicate and tedious data to gain a clear rule that is the whitening of a sequence of numbers. (2) Grey modeling: in style done by step 1 to establish a set of Grey variation equations and Grey differential equations. (3) Grey prediction: By using the Grey model to conduct a qualitative prediction, it is called the whitening of development. (4) Grey decision: A decision is made under imperfect countermeasure and unclear situation that is called the whitening of status. (5) Grey relational analysis: quantify all influences of different factors and their relation; it is called the whitening of factor relation. (6) Grey control: Work on the data of system behavior and search any rules of behavior development to foretaste future’s behavior, the prediction value can be fed back into the system in order to control the system.
This study use fourth method on Grey relational analysis, and apply to project evaluation and selection.
Finding: The results showed that investors preferred investment in the construction options in "residential" projects and then investment in "commercial" projects in other urban regions to investment in "commercial-residential buildings the around of holy shrine". The order of their choice is investment in: (1) Residential building, (2) Commercial Projects, (3) projects of commercial-residential the around of holy shrine, (4) Tourism and leisure projects.
It can be analyzed the external factors and macroeconomic policies of the country, such as monetary policy of the Central Bank, which are effective on economic stability and inflation, can be effective in making investment decisions. For example, controlling the rate of credit growth in the private sector is a monetary policy in line with the financial stability of the economy, which it effective on the investor's decision.
Conclusion: The most important problems of investing projects in the worn-out texture surrounding the shrine that has caused lack of attractiveness for investment are: "The shift of managers and responsible staff and the lack of stability in the posts assigned to individuals in the offices, long judicial process and the lack of efficient interaction of executive agencies, get high fees for licenses by municipality, and lack cooperation ownerships for owned of land and problems associated with the user change".
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