نرخ بیکاری بهینه در ایران: رویکرد بهینه یابی پویا (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
در ادبیات اقتصادی، نرخ بیکاری و نرخ تورم دو متغیر مهم و دو شاخص کلیدی در ارتباط با چگونگی وضعیت اقتصاد است. اهمیت این دو شاخص به حدی است که دولت ها در جریان بده- بستان رأی، به این دو متغیر استناد می کنند و تغییرات آنها به عنوان شاخصی از موفقیت یا عدم موفقیت دولت هاست. لذا دست یابی یک نرخ بیکاری بهینه برای اقتصاد هر کشور از اهمیت بسزایی برخوردار است. البته پرواضح است که تعیین نرخ بیکاری بهینه بدون توجه به نرخ تورم و سایر متغیرهای تعیین کننده خطایی است که نباید صورت بگیرد. در این تحقیق با استفاده از رابطه بده بستان تورم –بیکاری، همراه با انتظارات فیلیپس و با رویکرد کنترل بهینه پویا و روش حساب تغییرات از طریق حداقل سازی تابع زیان اجتماعی نسبت به محاسبه نرخ بهینه بیکاری اقدام شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد یک نرخ بیکاری بهینه در ایران باید در حدود 8 درصد باشد و میزان انحراف نرخ بیکاری بالفعل از نرخ بیکاری بهینه باید کاهش یابد. استفاده از سیاست های مالی و درآمدی به طور همزمان و توجه به اثرات موازی بر تورم ازجمله روش هایی است که می تواند دولت را برای دستیابی به این هدف کمک نماید.Optimal rate of unemployment in Iran: Dynamic Optimization Approach
Labor market issues as one of the four economic market in terms of dealing with HR always has special attention is Basic role for economic and social politicians, in targeted desighning is compilation in labor market , to provide appropriate background is context foe operation at full employment is in the center of authorities. Policymakers is politicians in every countries. Reducing unemployment level is one of the governmental target that they try a lot to achieve it. Since acheuing desirable development depends on employing Human Resources. In the other hard lack of using HR appropriately lead to lack of societies financial facilities utilization. As a result growth is development will not occure and following that, the rate of unemployment increase more re more to cause poverty a deprivation extend in the society. Economic development witheat effective government support is not possible. So the government has to direct the society and economic to a level to economic and social development. In economic literature, unemployment and inflation rate are two important variable and two key indicator in relation with the way of economic condition. The significance tow indicator are so high that, government in the way of rote give – take, refer to these variable, and their changed are as the government success or fail . So achieve optimum unemployment for every countries economic has on essential place. Of course, it is clear that determining the optimal unemployment rate, without paying attention to inflation rate and other important variable is a fault that we have to pay attention to it.Philips, reveal that there is a negative relation between increase the wage rate and unemployment rate, by England data that were in his important survey Philips curve. Immediately by economic and political makers and one of the reasons was its compatibility with the inflation changes theory such as: inflation theory caused by demand and cost pressure. Also the policymaker can use the Philips curve slope to reach the intended and unemployment rate, target the corresponding inflation. In addition social loses against social welfare is one of the issues in economic literature with a lot of partisan. Economists take a look at the social welfare or losses welfare while they are recognizing variable. In this respect some of variables have more effect on the social welfare is some of the variables have more effect on the social losses. Since the time that unemployment is inflation increases the social losses is decrease the social welfare minimizing social losses function means to maximization welfare. So function tar set is to minimize the social losses. In this study with using give—take in inflation are unemployment along with Philips expectation are with the dynamic optimized control approach are the account method change has been calculated thrush minimizing social losses according to unemployment optimized rate the resin mohcate that optimized unemployment rate in Iran should be nearly %8 and the deviation of unemployment rate have to decrease the optimized unemployment rate. Using financed are income polices simultaneously is consider to parallel effect on inflation. Are the methods that have this ability to help government to achieve this targest. Inflation is unemployment rate in Iran's economic are more the optimized rate is this lead to increase the social losses in economics. In order to reduce the unemployment is inflation its necessary to precise is be aware of the country's economic atmosphere because effort for reducing inflation is unemployment with various economic policy is not possible.
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