نگاهی دوباره به تورم در ایران: رویکرد VARX (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
پدیده تورم به عنوان یکی از مهم ترین مشکلات اقتصاد ایران همواره در مرکز توجه محققین بوده است. در این بین، عوامل مسبب این پدیده و راه های کنترل آن، از جمله حوزه های مورد مطالعه در مباحث تورم است. تحقیق حاضر با تکیه بر داده های دوره زمانی (1352 تا 1394) به بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر تورم، به عنوان یکی از مهم ترین چالش های حال حاضر اقتصاد ایران، پرداخته است. در این راستا با توجه به اینکه حداقل دو متغیر صادرات نفت و متغیر نهادی به عنوان متغیرهای برون زای الگو هستند؛ لذا از الگوهای VARX استفاده شده و با استفاده از مدل کلان برآورد شده، به پیش بینی تورم تحت دو سناریو (سناریو رشد 30 درصدی پایه پولی و سناریوی رشد 10 درصدی پایه پولی) برای پایه پولی پرداخته شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد، اختلاف تورم تحت این دو سناریو در سال های 97-1395 به ترتیب برابر 3/6، 4/7 و 9 درصد خواهد بود؛ یعنی با کنترل رشد پایه پولی می توان قسمتی از تورم را کنترل نمود. البته سیاست های پولی انقباضی شدید نیز می تواند رشد اقتصادی را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. لذا بایستی کنترل پایه پولی، همگام با تثبیت هم زمان تولید و تورم باشد.Take a look at inflation in Iran: Varx approach
High inflation, along with challenges such as low economic growth (compared to other countries and compared to target values in the fifth development plan), demographic shocks and high unemployment rates, especially in youth, monetary and fiscal discrepancies, exchange rate fluctuations, lack of planning Correct, policy making, government economy, unhealthy competition, widespread political rents, sanctions, budget dependency on oil, mismanagement and weakness of institutions, privatization, implementation of the second phase of targeting subsidies and lack of political stability, One of the most important challenges facing the Iranian economy. In macroeconomic variables, inflation seems to be the most important and chronic challenge facing the Iranian economy over the last few decades. Due to the destructive effects of inflation on the economy, its control as one of the goals of macroeconomic policies has always been a matter for economists. The persistent and chronic inflation of these days of the Iranian economy is a phenomenon whose causes have been rooted in many years. This article seeks to study the factors influencing inflation as the main challenge of the present Iranian economy, based on theoretical literature of macroeconomics in the field of inflation and the revealed facts of the Iranian economy. For this purpose, considering that at least two variables of oil exports and institutional variables are as external variables of the model, so, in this study, the specific patterns of VARX have been used. The VARX has this feature, In addition to the exogenous consideration of a variable in VAR, enables us to examine the effect of this variable's impact on other variables of the pattern using the shake reaction function. In the end, using the estimated macroeconomic model, we will predict inflation under different scenarios for the money base growth rate. According to the review period (1352-1944), forecasts for the three years of 2012-2013 will be based on two scenarios (the growth scenario of 30% of the monetary base and the growth scenario of 10% of the monetary base). The results showed that monetary base variables, exchange rate and oil exports have a positive effect on inflation. Also, the variable of economic freedom is negative, which indicates a negative relationship between prices and economic freedom. The results of the impulse response functions also showed that due to a monetary shock, exchange rate and oil exports, the level of prices would increase, but with a decreasing rate. The results of the Bootstrap method show that the above-mentioned shocks increase the level of prices and remain at the same level. Also, for the shock caused by two variables of production and economic freedom, it is also seen that the level of prices has fallen. Using estimated macroeconomic model, we predicted inflation under two different scenarios for liquidity. In the first scenario (the current situation), oil exports are stable at the same level in 1394, the economic freedom index is fixed at the same level in 1394 and the annual growth money base is 30%. In the second scenario, the same assumptions exist, except that the base money growth is 10% annually. According to the reviewed period (1352-1394), the predictions were made for three years, 1395-1397. The results show that the difference in inflation under these two scenarios will be 3.6, 7.4 and 9 percent, respectively, during the years 2012-2013. That is, controlling the growth of the monetary base can control inflation in part. Of course, this should not be forgotten that severe monetary contraction policies could affect economic growth.
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