تحلیل تأثیر ادراک از خطر بر میزان تاب آوری جوامع محلی در برابر سیلاب (منطقۀ موردمطالعه: روستاهای شهرستان بینالود) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
همواره ادراک مخاطرات و آگاهی از اثرهای آنها براساس ماهیت عقلایی زیستی بشر و تمایل وی برای بقا، موجب تلاش برای کاهش احتمال وقوع مخاطرات و ارت ق ای آم ادگ ی در برابر اثرهای احتمالی می شود. در این راستا، در پژوهش حاضر، تأثیر ادراک از خطر سیلاب بر میزان تاب آوری جوامع محلی در خانواده های روستایی شهرستان بینالود بررسی و تحلیل می شود. این پژوهش ازنظر روش، توصیفی تحلیلی و از حیث هدف، کاربردی است. واحد تحلیل در این پژوهش، 190 خانوارهای روستایی منطقه با استفاده از فرمول کوکران و با خطای 07/0 تعیین شده است. نتایج تحلیل آزمون های آماری نشان دهنده این است که شاخص های بعد ادراک احساسی و شناختی به ترتیب با میانگین 5/3 و 1/3 بیشترین تأثیر و سپس عملکردی با میانگین 5/2 کمترین مقدار را در سطح نمونه ها دارد؛ همچنین نتایج ارزیابی میزان اثرگذاری ابعاد ادراک خطر بر میزان تاب آوری با استفاده از آزمون رگرسیون نشان دهنده این است که از بین ابعاد ادراک خطر، بعد شناختی بیشترین اثر را در تاب آوری روستاهای مطالعه شده داشته است. از سویی، براساس نتایج به دست آمده از آزمون تحلیل واریانس، اختلاف معناداری بین تاب آوری گروه های با سطح ادراک خطر متفاوت در جوامع محلی وجود دارد و گروه های با سطح ادراک متوسط بیشترین میزان تاب آوری را بین سایر گروه ها دارد؛ همچنین زنان روستایی درک بیشتری از سیلاب و احتمال وقوع آن داشته و درنتیجه تاب آوری آنها بیشتر است. از طرفی، مقایسه ادراک و تاب آوری بین افراد بیمه شده و نشده نشان دهنده آن بود که افراد بیمه شده ادراک و تاب آوری بیشتری نسبت به افراد بیمه نشده دارند.Analysis the Effect of Perception of flood Risk on the Resilience of Local Communities to Disasters (Study Area: Villages of Binalood County)
Abstract: Perception of risks and awareness of their effects based on the rational nature of human biology and his desire for survival always reduce the likelihood of hazards and improve preparedness for possible effects. In this regard, the present study sought to investigate and analyze the effects of perception of flood risk on the resilience of local communities in the rural families of Binalood County. This study was a descriptive-analytical research in terms of method and an applied research in terms of purpose. The unit of analysis in this study included 190 rural households in the area, which was determined by using the Cochran's formula with an error of 0.07. The results of the statistical analysis indicated that the indicators of emotional and cognitive dimensions of perception with the average values of 3.5 and 3.1 had the highest impacts and functional dimension with an average value of 2.5 had the lowest impact at the sample level. Also, the results of evaluating the effects of risk perception on the resilience by using the regression test indicated that among the dimensions of risk perception, cognitive dimension had the greatest effect on the resilience of the studied villages. On the other hand, based on the results of the analysis of variance, there was a significant difference between the resilience levels of groups with different levels of risk perception in the local communities. Moreover, the groups with moderate level of perception had the highest resilience among the other groups. Rural women also had a greater understanding of flooding and its probability of occurrence. As a result, they were more resilient. On the other hand, comparison of the levels of perception and resilience between the insured and uninsured people showed that the insured people had more perception and resilience than the uninsured people. Introduction: Findings of the effects of risk perception on resilience can be used to identify systems of resilience and adopt policies tailored to the levels of perception and resilience in local communities. Resilience of rural communities has become one of the most important issues in recent decades in such a way that many studies have been written about natural hazards and resilience of local communities. In recent years, disaster management in the programs of natural hazard reduction has tried to create and strengthen the characteristics of resilient communities. The aim of this study was to investigate and analyze the effects of flood risk perception on the resilience of local communities in rural families in Binalood, Mashhad. The results of comparing the villagers’ average opinions based on one-sample t-test showed that the values of T-statistic in all the indicators except the performance index were higher than the average value (3). All dimensions of the independent variable of risk perception and the dependent variable of resilience of communities to risks indicated their significant effects on measuring and evaluating the variable purpose. The results showed that the villagers were at a moderate level in terms of perception and resilience. Therefore, paying attention to increasing understanding of the local community in terms of their ability and resistance to dangers, such as floods, was one of the most important factors for realizing their confrontation with dangers. Thus, an important source of information, cognition, and awareness can determine the outcome of a general behavior like resilience. This study also showed that there was a relationship between the perception of local communities and resilience to disasters by 0.616%, which indicated the importance of the relationship between these two variables and their coordinated changes. On the other hand, the difference in the structures of perception of risks between the two groups of men and women (women’s higher perception of the risks) indicated the importance of the women’s role in such events. Their greater understanding of risks could lead to increased resilience and consequently less vulnerability. The results of perception and resilience between the insured and uninsured people showed inequality of the structures of perception of risks and resilience among these people, indicating a higher perception and resilience among the insured people. Multivariate regression was used to measure the effects of the different dimensions of risk perception on resilience. The results obtained from the villagers showed that the perception of the studied local community with the resilience index of 0.715 had a positive relationship with its strong intensity in terms of the coefficient of impact of variables on resilience. The cognitive dimension with an impact factor of 0.696 had the highest positive effect on resilience. In fact, perception of risks by more people increases their readiness to face natural hazards, thus accelerating resilience and consequently helping them cope with the risks and more quickly recover after them. Methodology: This research was based on a descriptive-analytical method and the research type was applied and quantitative. Thus, the field survey data were used to explain the research objectives. The main tool for data collection was a researcher-made questionnaire based on the indicators and variables extracted from theoretical topics. The study was performed in the two dimensions of the independent variable of risk perception and dependent variable of local community resilience. The unit of analysis in this study included the rural households. Professors and experts in this field were employed to assess validities of the indicators and variables. Also, 12 rural points, which could be exposed to floods and riverbanks, were selected as the study area. The sample size was determined by using Cochran's formula with an error of 0.07%. Of the total number of 4780 households in the statistical population, 190 households were evaluated with at least 10 questionnaires by dividing the proportion of the remaining samples between the studied villages. Cronbach's alpha test was used to calculate the questionnaire reliability. The alpha coefficient of the questionnaire was 0.76, which indicated its reliability with acceptable internal consistency. In the next step, the quantitative data obtained from the descriptive and inferential tests were analyzed by using SPSS software. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was utilized to evaluate normality of the data distribution. Then, the tests of mean comparison, Pearson correlation and regression, and analysis of variance were applied to measure the perception level of the local community to flood risk and its resilience, as well as the relationship and impacts of these two variables according to the type of data. Discussion: The results of the present study showed that being aware of the causes of these crises and recognizing their real effects were effective in resilience and preparedness for these disasters and could reduce the number of casualties and the people affected. Based on the results of the correlation test, the strong effects of the indicators of local community perception on its resilience to natural hazards, especially in the cognitive and emotional dimensions, confirmed this fact. Among the various dimensions, the most desirable dimension was the cognitive dimension, which involved the highest proportion of the subjects. The role of the emotional dimension in the indicators (probability of occurrence, fear of occurrence, feeling of fear, security of life, perception of security during sleep, and a sense of dominance and control) was found to be more desirable in resilience. The analysis of variance test also made a statistically significant difference between at least one of the groups and the others assuming that the people's resilience was partly a function of their understanding, awareness, and knowledge about risks. Based on the results, most of the subjects had a moderate level of risk perception. Conclusion: According to the results of the present study, it couls be said that it was not possible to completely control hazards, including floods, but the damage could be minimized by following proper management and strategies, such as raising awareness of the local community through training programs, which could increase its resilience though most accidents do not give people enough opportunity to even use the most essential facilities. For this reason, it is necessary to plan and prepare the exposed population to deal with such conditions. In fact, the areas with knowledge and perception are less exposed to risks and people will be more resilient to disasters. Therefore, knowledge and awareness as the important components of resilience and adaptation to risks are vital for the society. Various educational interventions at the individual and social levels are crucial to increase people’s levels of cognition and awareness, as well as their behaviors and responses to risks. People with a high and sufficient understanding of risks insure their assets in addition to showing better preparedness and response to disasters, which affect their resilience after the occurrence of risks. Another important point is that the functional dimension can be considered to be parallel with operationalization of the perception of risks and a kind of desire for prevention, which is the third step after perception. Keywords<em>:</em> risk perception, resilience, local communities, disaster management English References - Aboagye, D. Dari, Th. Koomson, J., (2013). Risk Perception and Disaster Management in the Savannah Region of Ghana. <em>International Journal of Humanities and Social Science</em>, Vol. 3, No.3, pp. 85-96. - Agrawal, N., Elliott, M., P Simonovic, S., (2020). Risk and Resilience: A Case of Perception versus Reality in Flood Management, <em>Water</em>,Vol. 12, No. 1254, pp. 1-18. - Antronico, L., De Pascale, F., Coscarelli, R., Gullà, G., (2020). 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Figures and Tables - Fig. 1: Conceptual model of research: analysis of the level of perception of flood risk by the local community and its impact on disaster resilience (authors, 2021) - Fig. 2: Map of the political situation of the studied villages - Table 4: Assessment of the importance of the dimensions of perception and resilience to disasters for villagers (authors‚ 2021) -Table 5: Relationship between risk perception and resilience variable based on Pearson correlation coefficient (authors‚ 2021) - Table 6: Relationship between perception and resilience indicators (authors‚ 2021) - Table 7: Perception of risks between the two groups of respondents (male and female) by using the t-test of the two independent samples (authors‚ 2021) - Table 8: Comparison of the effects of perception between the two groups of men and women using the t-test of the two independent groups (authors‚ 2021) - Table 9: The means and standard deviation related to the comparison of perception and resilience between the insured and uninsured groups (authors‚ 2021) - Table 10: Comparison of the difference between the two insured and uninsured groups in terms of their perception and resilience to risks by using the t-test of the two independent groups (authors‚ 2021) - Table 11: Correlation value, adjusted coefficient of determination, and standard error of the effect of perception on resilience (authors‚ 2021) - Table 12: Multiple correlation coefficients of the effects of perception indicators on resilience (authors‚ 2021) - Table 13: Standard and non-standard regression coefficients for predicting the resilience of the local community (authors‚ 2021) - Table 16: The last stage of clustering the risk perception variable (authors‚ 2021) - Table 17: Comparison of mean resilience between the different groups (authors‚ 2021) - Table 18: Leven test (homogeneity of variances) (authors‚ 2021) - Table 19: Resilience at the different levels of risk perception (authors‚ 2021) - Table 20: Homogeneous groups in terms of risk perception (authors, 2021)
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