مطالب مرتبط با کلیدواژه

Credit risk


۱.

Fair Value Accounting for Liabilities and Own Credit Risk(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Advances in Mathematical Finance and Application, Volume ۲, Issue ۱, Winter ۲۰۱۷ 55 - 68

کلیدواژه‌ها: Fair Value Credit risk Default risk Solvency

حوزه‌های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۵۶۵ تعداد دانلود : ۳۹۲
Changes in credit risk may arise when either the value or the risk of corporate assets changes. Changes in the equity value associated with the changes in the asset value and changes in asset risk can be characterized into potentially countervailing direct and indirect effects. The indirect effect of risk on equity value is a function of factors that affect the debt value of including leverage, asset value, and asset risk. This study examines whether the equity value reflects the profits and losses associated with the changes in the debt value consistent with the predictions of Merton [21]. The insurance companies listed in the Stock Exchange during 2010-2015 were selected to test the desired hypotheses. It has been found that the stock returns are negatively related to the increase in credit risk as reflected in the changes of estimated bond ratings. More importantly for the research question, it has been realized that the relationship between risk changes and equity returns is negative when the leverage is higher.
۲.

The Effect of Liquidity and Credit Risk on the Relationship be-tween Business Activities and Fluctuations in the Price of all Com-panies Listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Advances in Mathematical Finance and Application, Volume ۲, Issue ۱, Winter ۲۰۱۷ 69 - 81

کلیدواژه‌ها: Business Liquidity Credit risk

حوزه‌های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۴۵۲ تعداد دانلود : ۳۶۲
In this study business operations and liquidity and credit risk on price fluctuations on the stock exchange since 2010 to 2013 has been Tehran distance. The sample consisted of 76 company The systematic elimination method is selected. The company had a total of 304 years, in this study, the hypothesis of linear regression and correlation to analyse the data and test hypotheses Eviews software is used. The results show a direct linear relationship between the number of business deal with price volatility as a factor in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange respectively. In addition, liquidity and credit risks and price fluctuations affect the relationship between business activities
۳.

Designing an Expert System for Credit Rating of Real Customers of Banks Using Fuzzy Neural Networks(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Advances in Mathematical Finance and Application, Volume ۴, Issue ۱, Winter ۲۰۱۹ 89 - 102

کلیدواژه‌ها: Expert systems Fuzzy mathematics Credit rating Credit risk

حوزه‌های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۴۲۴ تعداد دانلود : ۳۹۰
Currently, in Iran's banking system, non-repayment of facilities has become one of the biggest issues, and due to the lack of a proper system for proper allocation of facilities, they face a number of problems, including the problem of allocation of loans, the problem of failure to repay loans Of the central bank, or the amount of facilities increased from the amount of reimbursement. The solution of this problem is the credit rating of the customers, which is based on a model based on the theory of fuzzy sets for validation of real customers of the Maskan bank of the East Azer-baijan in Iran in 2016. In this research a structured model was obtained for deter-mination and categorization of input variables for application in the system by factorial analysis then a expert fuzzy system was modelled that consist of six steps. In the first step a fuzzy system is designed that its inputs are financial capacity, support, reliability, repayment record and its outputs is customer credit. In the second step input and outputs are partitioned, in the third step thee partitioned inputs and outputs are converted into fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy inference is compiled in step four. In step five the defuzzifier is conducted. Finally the designed model is tested in step six. These results indicate research model efficiency compared to bank credit measuring experts that they predicate applicants performance according their judgment and intuition.
۴.

Credit Risk Measurement of Trusted Customers Using Logistic Regression and Neural Networks(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Journal of System Management, Volume ۵, Issue ۳, Summer ۲۰۱۹ 91 - 104

کلیدواژه‌ها: Credit risk Logistic regression Neural Networks Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC)

حوزه‌های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۵۹۲ تعداد دانلود : ۴۳۶
The issue of credit risk and deferred bank claims is one of the sensitive issues of banking industry, which can be considered as the main cause of bank failures. In recent years, the economic slowdown accompanied by inflation in Iran has led to an increase in deferred bank claims that could put the country's banking system in serious trouble. Accordingly, the current paper presents a prediction model for credit risk of real customers of Qavamin Bank Branch in Shiraz, using a combined approach of logistic regression and neural network. Therefore, the necessary examinations were carried out on a sample of 351 individuals from the real customers of the bank in the period 2011-2012. According to the information available, 17 variables were extracted including financial and non-financial variables for classifying customers into well-balanced s and ill-balanced s. Among the variables, five effective variables on credit risk were selected using the parent forward stepwise selection technique, which was used to train neural networks with three neurons in the hidden layer. the optimum cutting point was selected based on the performance curve of the system and the results of the neural network output on the test data show that the accuracy of the combined model in the classifier of well-balanced customers is .89 and in the category of ill-balanced customers is .83 that is better than the results of logistic regression and in general, it is possible to estimate the accuracy of prediction.
۵.

The Comparison of Applying a Designed Model to Measure Credit Risk Between Melli and Mellat Banks(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Journal of System Management, Volume ۵, Issue ۴, Autumn ۲۰۱۹ 149 - 160

کلیدواژه‌ها: Credit risk Real and Legal Clients Multilayer Feed-Forward Neural Network

حوزه‌های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۳۴۶ تعداد دانلود : ۳۷۸
The main purpose of this paper is providing a model to calculate the credit risk of Melli bank clients and implement it at Mellat Bank. Therefore, the present study uses a multi-layered neural network method. The statistical population of this research is all real and legal clients of Melli and Mellat banks. Sampling method used in this research is a simple random sampling method. Friedman test was used to calculate the required number of samples in a random sampling method from Cochran formula (1977) and Friedman test was used to rank the factors affecting the credit risk. Friedman test was also performed using data from a completed questionnaire of active experts at the Melli Bank. Based on the results obtained from Friedman test, five important factors in the credit risk of real clients of the Melli Bank of Iran, type of occupation, guarantee value, loan amount, having return checks, the balance average, and the value of the guarantee, the amount of the loan, the average of the balance, having returned checks and deferred loans are the most important factors affecting the credit risk of legal clients, which have been used as inputs in the neural network model. The results of credit risk prediction using the neural network showed that the designed model has a high ability to predict the credit risk of real and legal clients of the Melli bank, while it did not have this ability for the Mellat bank.
۶.

The effect of the politically connected CEO on credit risk in Iranian commercial banks(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Iranian Journal of Finance, Volume ۴, Issue ۳, Summer ۲۰۲۰ 1 - 17

کلیدواژه‌ها: Credit risk Politically Connected CEO Iranian Commercial Banks SGMM

حوزه‌های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۵۱۹ تعداد دانلود : ۳۳۴
It has been widely stated in the theoretical literature that political connections increase the value of organizations. Political connections may have both a positive and negative effect on the performance of the bank. Politically connected banks may have better access to financing, timely liquidity support from the central bank or banks which are connected with other political organizations and reduction in the pressure of legal authorities if such a reduction is possible, such as the easy passage of legal inspection. A politically connected bank can also use communications to exchange assistance to achieve the organization's goals. Therefore, answering the question of whether banks' political connections have a positive or negative impact on their financial performance cannot be answered with certainty. This study attempts to investigate the effects of interactions between politically connected CEO (PCCEO), independent directors, and credit risk of banks in an emerging country context where corporate governance systems appear weak. In this study, to collect the required data, we use the information database of Codal publishers for the listed banks in the Tehran Stock Exchange and the information existing in the performance report of the Iranian banks for public banks that collected by the Iran Banking Institute. For the investigation of this issue, we employ the SGMM method (System Generalized Method of Moments) or in other words, dynamic GMM approach, and we find politically connected boards to exert significant influence on credit risk.
۷.

Asymmetric Reaction of Investors to Market Risk, Illiquidity Risk, and Credit Risk: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE)(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Iranian Journal of Finance, Volume ۴, Issue ۴, Autumn ۲۰۲۰ 44 - 65

کلیدواژه‌ها: Market risk Illiquidity Risk Credit risk Asymmetric Reaction

حوزه‌های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۲۶۱ تعداد دانلود : ۲۶۴
The relationship between risk and return is not symmetric under different circumstances. As the prospect theory describes, the value function which passes through the reference point is steeper for losses than gains (asymmetric risk appetite). But such an asymmetrical risk aversion could be traced in different periods of investment and market boom and bust cycles behind the reference point. Moreover, investors’ asymmetric behavior is different regarding various risks, such as market risk, illiquidity risk, and credit risk. This paper examines the asymmetric investors' reaction to various risks in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) both in recession and growth from 2011 through 2016. Evidence reveals that although all three kinds of risks are relevant, especially illiquidity risk, risk factors’ explanation power in the bullish market is less than the bearish one. This indicates that investors tend to show an asymmetric reaction to risk in up and downswing markets. The asymmetric behavior is also predominant due to investors’ weak attention to the market risk in a growing market in opposition to a recessive market condition that turns out to be an important risk consideration. The results of this study can help investors to consider asymmetrical behavior effect when they are making their minds on investment decisions.
۸.

A New Credit Risk System Using Hybrid ELECTRE TRI and NSGA-II Methods(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Journal of System Management, Volume ۶, Issue ۴, Winter ۲۰۲۰ 1 - 25

کلیدواژه‌ها: ELECTRE TRI NSGA-ΙΙ Credit risk NRGA

حوزه‌های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۴۱۱ تعداد دانلود : ۲۰۸
ELECTRE TRI is the most applicable and developed outranking based classification method in the field of MCDA. By including a large number of parameters, it provides a huge amount of information on criteria which enriches decision making process, although calculation of these large number of parameters is very time consuming and difficult task. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a new method called NSGA-ELECTRE, by which the NSGA-  algorithm learns ELECTRE TRI and elicits its parameters through an evolutionary process. The proposed method contributes to the literature by utilizing a pair of conflicting objective functions including Type I errors and Type II errors instead of using a single criterion named “classification accuracy” which used frequently in the related works. The proposed bi-objective method is applied to six known credit risk datasets. The NRGA model is used as a benchmark for validation. Computational results indicate outstanding performance of the NSGA-ELECTRE method.
۹.

Impact of Basel II Capital Accord on Small and Medium Size Enterprises (SME): An Empirical Study on a Group of Export Oriented SMEs(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Journal of Money and Economy, Vol. ۹, No. ۱, Winter ۲۰۱۴ 117-146

کلیدواژه‌ها: Exporter SMEs Basel II Capital Requirements Probit Model Credit risk

حوزه‌های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۳۲۷ تعداد دانلود : ۲۰۰
The purpose of this study is to find the relationship between lending to Small and Medium-size Exporter Enterprises (E-SMEs) and the use of Basel II Capital Accord for the first time in the banking system of Iran. Results showed that 96.69 percent of small firms were in the very low risk category of credit portfolio. This proof explains a consistent and balanced relationship between risk- weighted assets distribution system (RWA) in Basel II Capital Accord and firms’ size. In other words, the smaller the size of the firm, the smaller their risk-share in the credit portfolio would be. Furthermore, according to the results found by Probit regression with an endogenous covariate, the higher ratings the firm recovers, the less risk-share in bank’s portfolio the firm will enjoy. Thus, it is indispensable that banks, chiefly specialized banks, should take action towards the allocation of parts of the credit portfolio to SME exporter financing. Accordingly, it is essential to design particular credit scoring models for these firms. JEL Classification: G28, G21
۱۰.

Corporate Governance and Credit Risk in the Iranian Banking Industry(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Journal of Money and Economy, Vol. ۱۴, No. ۱, Winter ۲۰۱۹ 85-100

کلیدواژه‌ها: Banking Industry Credit risk Corporate Governance Tehran Stock Exchange

حوزه‌های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۳۰۱ تعداد دانلود : ۲۷۱
The primary purpose of this research is to investigate the impacts of corporate governance on credit risk in the Iranian banking industry. The sample consists of 20 banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2011-2016, using panel data. In this research, credit risk and corporate governance are the dependent and independent variables, respectively. The meta-synthesis method was used for compiling a checklist of corporate governance indicators. Then, the content analysis method was applied for measuring the corporate governance index; i.e., the number of dimensions disclosed on the total number of disclosable dimensions. The results indicate that after adjusting the control variables namely the size, the financial leverage, the ratio of capital adequacy, the GDP and inflation, there is a significant negative relationship between corporate governance quality and the credit risk, which means more effective corporate governance will reduce information asymmetry, increases the clarity and stakeholder confidence, and finally reduces banks’ credit risk. Accordingly, the final recommendation is to reduce credit risk by improving the mechanisms of corporate governance in the Iranian banking industry.
۱۱.

Stress Testing of Credit Risk in Iran’s Banking System(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Journal of Money and Economy, Vol. ۱۶, No. ۱, Winter ۲۰۲۱ 93-114

کلیدواژه‌ها: Credit risk stress test banking system

حوزه‌های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۳۲۷ تعداد دانلود : ۱۵۶
Economic crisis imposes extensive losses on banks and credit institutions, thereby increasing their credit risk and dissolution. In fact, the economic conditions of countries are the major cause of financial stress, the destructive effects of which can greatly be reduced by accurate risk management in the banking system. This study aims to examine stress testing in the Iranian banking system by using the data of Iranian banks from 2008 to 2017. The results in the panel VAR framework and Monte Carlo simulation by using macroeconomic variables and credit risk show that the Iranian banking system is mostly affected by the scenarios of long-term shock in the macroeconomic factors of the country. In other words, changes in one period of the variables have a minimum effect on credit risk. However, a three-period horizon of interest rate and the inflation rate has the maximum effect, while economic growth has the minimum effect on the degree of default in Iranian banks.
۱۲.

Presenting a Conceptual Framework to Increase the Return and Reduce Risk (A case study: customers of Mellat Bank of Arak)(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Advances in Mathematical Finance and Application, Volume ۸, Issue ۱, Winter ۲۰۲۳ 203 - 218

کلیدواژه‌ها: Profitability Credit risk Customer RFM Model

حوزه‌های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۲۴۷ تعداد دانلود : ۲۱۳
The objective of this study is to present a framework to increase the return and profitability and reduce credit risk of Mellat Bank customers by developing the RFM model. In this study, which was conducted as a case study in Mellat Bank of Iran, first the variables of RFM model were identified. In the next step, relevant weights of RFM variables were calculated using AHP technique. In the next step, using the K-means algorithm, customers were clustered based on weighted RFM and extended RFM. The result included customer clusters. The results indicated that the three clusters 5, 1, and 7 obtained the highest scores for receiving facilities and the coefficients for receiving facilities were equal to 0.271, 0.173, and 0.556, respectively. By determining the facility coefficient for the cluster and consequently for the customers presented in these top groups, granting facility becomes more transparent and more purposeful, and therefore, it will help the company increase profitability, reduce the churn among high-efficiency customers, and create value for customers. This research demonstrates a systematic method for granting facilities to recognize the true value based on the capability and prevention of arbitrary acts
۱۳.

The Resilience of the Iranian Banking System to Macro Shocks with an Emphasis on Credit Risk(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Journal of Money and Economy, Vol. ۱۷, No. ۲, Spring ۲۰۲۲ 197-218
تعداد بازدید : ۲۱۷ تعداد دانلود : ۱۶۰
In this paper, we present the macro stress test with a credit risk approach for banking system of Iran during the period 2004Q1-2019Q4. The goal is to evaluate the vulnerability of the banking system through credit risk to the country economic shocks. In this regard , the developed method of Wilson (1997) Credit Portfolio View model including macroeconomic variables and default rate has been used. The results of the applied analysis show that the nominal exchange rate has a significant and positive effect on default rate or credit risk and the variables of the inflation rate, economic growth, loan growth, and liquidity rate have a less negative effect and considering that the economic recession during the studied period, the unemployment rate has had the most positive and destructive effect on the credit risk. Using Mont Carlo simulation and calculating the risk value and expected losses for each of the economic variables, the capital required by banks to cover losses is obtained. The results of the credit risk stress test show that an adverse scenario due to nominal exchange rate shock with a standard deviation has the greatest impact on the amount of capital required to cover unexpected losses compared to the baseline scenario and banks need less capital to cover their losses. But to cover the losses caused by the shocks of other variables, it is necessary to increase their capital. In general, according to the obtained results from the simulation and checking the distribution of credit losses, the banking system except for the nominal exchange rate variable is not resilient to cover losses due to shocks from other variables.
۱۴.

Presenting the smart pattern of credit risk of the real banks’ customers using machine learning algorithm(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Advances in Mathematical Finance and Application, Volume ۸, Issue ۴, Autumn ۲۰۲۳

کلیدواژه‌ها: Smart pattern bank customers’ risk Credit risk Machine Learning Random forest algorithm

حوزه‌های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۱۹۰ تعداد دانلود : ۱۵۷
In the past, deciding over granting loans to bank customers in Iran would be made traditionally and based on personal judgments over the risk of repayment. However, increase in demands on banking facilities by economic enterprises and families on the one side, and increased as well as extended commercial competitions among banks and financial and credit institutions in the country for reduction of facility repayment risk on the other side, have caused application of novel methods such as some statistical ones in this context. Now to predict the risk of negligence in banking facility repayment and classification of the candidates, bankers use their customers’ credit ranking. Time efficiency, cost effectiveness, avoidance from personal judgments, and further accuracy in examining the candidates who apply for various funds are of its salient merits of this new combined method. Various statistical methods including biased analysis, logistic regression, non-parametric parallelism, and also some others such as neural networks have been employed for credit ranking. In this research, given the random forest metaheuristic algorithm-based smart pattern of real bank customers’ credit risk (case study: Bank Tejarat) was presented. According to the value of skewness, the data could be stated to have a normal distribution. Based on the observed results, the lowest mean was related to the variable of type of facility and its maximum value, to the amount of facility.
۱۵.

Presenting financial and non-financial indices model affecting the credit risk on the Maskan Bank(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Advances in Mathematical Finance and Application, Volume ۸, Issue ۳, Summer ۲۰۲۳ 1057 - 1070

کلیدواژه‌ها: Financial and non-financial indicators Credit risk Maskan Bank

حوزه‌های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۱۲۷ تعداد دانلود : ۱۲۳
Providing credit facilities to clients can be regarded as one of the most important tasks of banks. As a result, the current research is carried out with the aim of developing a model of financial and non-financial factors that influence credit risk in the Maskan Bank. This study was divided into two sections: qualitative and quantitative. In the qualitative portion, the Delphi technique was used to identify financial and non-financial variables impacting credit risk in the Maskan Bank by interviewing 18 experts. In the quantitative section, the selected components of the questionnaire were initially created in a 5-point Likert scale. The questionnaire was then presented to 361 legal clients of Maskan Bank from the statistical sam-ple of the quantitative section. The quantitative component was completed using LISREL software and modeling the structural equations of SEM. Three primary components (financial, market, and management) and 33 sub-components were identified as financial and non-financial indicators impacting credit risk based on the results of the qualitative section. The quantitative findings also revealed that the indicators of guarantee status in the financial component, price level in the market component, and manpower motivation and productivity, as well as man-agement continuity and trade in the management component, had the largest factor loads.
۱۶.

Measuring the Credit Risk of Bank Based on Z-Score And KMV- Merton Models: Evidence from Iran(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Advances in Mathematical Finance and Application, Volume ۹, Issue ۱, Winter ۲۰۲۴ 241 - 260

کلیدواژه‌ها: Bank Credit risk Z score KMV-Merton

حوزه‌های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۲۰۹ تعداد دانلود : ۲۵۲
This paper examines the credit risk in the Iranian banks during 2008 to 2018 through the Z-score (Accounting based data) and the KMV-Merton (Market based information) models. In the Merton model, equity is equal to call option on underlying value of the bank’s asset. The market value of assets is estimated by share price. The value of assets is then compared to the value of liabilities. Therefore, default when occurs that the market value of assets is less than the book value of debts. so, value of equity becomes negative. In the Z-score model, Return on Assets and Equity to Assets as the numerator and standard deviation of ROA as the denominator are applied. If the mentioned ratios of numerator increase and the denominator decrease, the probability of default decline. As well as, Independent variables are divided into five groups: leverage, management efficiency, profitability quality, financial health, and liquidity. As a result, capital adequacy and profitability have a greater impact on both models. Also, the ANOVA table proves the validity of two models. The value of ROC test in both models is above average (0.5) which are efficient and their efficiency is 99.48% and 92.68%, respectively. Also, in terms of Voung’s test, the KMV is more efficient than the Z-score.
۱۷.

تحدید وتصنیف أنواع المخاطر فی صناعه المصارف فی إیران(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: دراسات فی العلوم الانسانیه دوره ۳۱ سال ۱۴۴۶ شماره ۱ 123 - 144
تعداد بازدید : ۶۱ تعداد دانلود : ۵۱
إنّ التغییر فی أشکال وطرق عمل المصارف والدخول إلی أسواق جدیده وتغییر طبیعه الأنظمه المصرفیه من التقلیدیه والکلاسیکیه إلی المصارف الإلکترونیه، وکذلک ظهور التکنولوجیا المالیه والشرکات المبتدئه فی صناعه المصارف من جانب، وفقدان رؤیه شامله وجامعه فی مجال تحدید والسیطره علی المخاطر من جانب آخر زادت من قلق البنوک ومخاوفها من الأزمات الاقتصادیه وما قد ینجم عن فقدان الرؤیه الواضحه من المستقبل. وما هو واضح وجلی إن حجم التغییرات والتطورات فی هذا المجال لا تنم عن مستقبل هادئ ومطمئن بالنسبه للمصارف والبنوک، علی هذا الأساس فإن البنوک یجب أن تزید جهودها ومساعیها من أجل مواجهه هذا المستقبل غیر الهادئ. یحاول البحث الراهن تقدیم تصنیف جامع من أنواع المخاطر فی صناعه المصارف فی إیران. عینه البحث تتکون من مراجعه 30 شخصا من الخبراء والمتخصصین فی مجال صناعه المصارف فی إیران وفق طریقه أخذ العینات علی أساس الاستبعاد المنهجی. تم الحصول علی عشرین مؤشرًا نهائیًا لتصنیف المخاطر فی الصناعه المصرفیه من 68 مکونًا مستخرجًا من مراجعه الأدب النظری للبحث، عن طریق تکرار طریقه دلفی ثلاث مرات فی الفتره 1399-1400. ووفق النتائج التی توصلنا إلیها فإن التصنیف المقترح شمل المخاطر المالیه، والمخاطر التشغیلیه، والمخاطر الاقتصادیه، والمخاطر السیاسیه – الاجتماعیه، والمخاطر التطبیقیه، والمخاطر المعرفیه والتکنولوجیه. أظهرت نتائج التحقق من الصدق وفق طریق دلفی أن معامل ألفا کرونباخ للمرحله الثالثه کان یساوی 0.899 ودل ذلک علی أن جمیع المؤشرات کانت داله وصحیحه، کما دل علی وجود مستوی عالٍ من الإجماع بین خبراء الصناعه المصرفیه حول هذه المخاطر.
۱۸.

A Two-step Model to Evaluate the Efficiency and Rating of Banks and Explain the Role of Credit Risk (Case Study of Commercial Banks Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange)(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Journal of Money and Economy, Vol. ۱۸, No. ۱, Winter ۲۰۲۳ 1-32

کلیدواژه‌ها: Banking Efficiency Credit risk Performance Evaluation Data Envelopment Analysis Tobit Regression Logistic regression

حوزه‌های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۲۷ تعداد دانلود : ۳۱
In economies where banks play a key role in aggregating savings and allocating credit to various sectors, it is crucial to evaluate the performance of the banking system using appropriate methods. This research paper presents a model for evaluating the efficiency of commercial banks listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period from 2015 to 2020, with a focus on the impact of credit risk. The study employs a two-step descriptive-correlation retrospective method to rank the banks and explain the role of credit risk in their efficiency. Specifically, the efficiency of the banks is determined using inputs and outputs based on DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) models. The calculation of efficiency using ideal SBM (Slacks-Based Measure) and DEA methods reveals that Mellat, Saderat, and Tejaret banks were the most efficient during the study period. Furthermore, Tobit and logistic regression models are used to investigate the relationship between the main determinants of credit risk and the efficiency of commercial banks. The findings indicate a statistically significant relationship between the two factors. Overall, this paper highlights the importance of evaluating the efficiency of the banking system in bank-oriented economies and provides a useful model for doing so. The research paper highlights the significant impact of credit risk on bank efficiency, emphasizing its role in shaping effective risk management strategies within the banking sector. It suggests that banks should prioritize these factors to enhance their operational efficiency.
۱۹.

Credit Benefit of Reverse Factoring in Iran: An Agent-Based Approach(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:
منبع: Journal of Money and Economy, Vol. ۱۸ No. ۲, Spring ۲۰۲۳ 239-262

کلیدواژه‌ها: Supply Chain Finance Reverse Factoring Credit risk Agent-Based Simulation

حوزه‌های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۳۳ تعداد دانلود : ۲۸
We investigate the effects of the implementation of reverse factoring on the credit risk level of financially constrained suppliers within a supply chain. To simulate the desired supply chain finance environment, an agent-based framework is developed. Short-term bank financing and reverse factoring are available financial instruments for suppliers. The estimations regarding the default probability of agents are calculated using formulations of the KMV (Kealhofer Merton Vasicek) model. It incorporates market-based information and company-specific financial data to estimate the likelihood of default and potential losses based on the estimation of the market value and volatility of the firm’s asset and calculation of the distance to default. Results suggest that the adoption of reverse factoring significantly alleviates the credit risk levels of financially constrained members of a certain layer within a supply chain.