بهینه سازی الگوی کشت محصولات زراعی شهرستان صحنه بر اساس محدودیت منابع (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
رشد روز افزون تقاضا برای منابع محدود به ویژه منابع آب یکی از اساسی ترین مسائل بخش کشاورزی است به طوری که برداشت بی رویه از منابع آبی به ویژه منابع آب زیرزمینی سبب کاهش سطح منابع آب زیرزمینی شده است. در همین راستا، برنامه ریزی در راستای استفاده بهینه از این منابع محدود با در نظر گرفتن هدف های متضاد ضروری است؛ بنابراین باید توجه داشت که تصمیم گیری در چنین شرایطی با پیچیدگی های بسیاری همراه است. در پژوهش حاضر بهینه سازی تولید محصولات زراعی با در نظر گرفتن همزمان تولید آرمان های حداکثرسازی سود، افزایش عملکرد و کمینه سازی مصرف آب، کود و سموم شیمیایی با استفاده از روش برنامه ریزی آرمانی فازی در دشت صحنه برای 7 محصول گندم، چغندر قند، یونجه، گشنیز، آفتابگردان، ذرت دانه ای و برنج بررسی می شود. بهره برداران از چاه های عمیق و نیمه عمیق این دشت به عنوان جامعه آماری مطالعه شده انتخاب شد. مقایسه الگوی کشت موجود و سطح تولید بهینه شده، بهینه نبودن وضعیت موجود به ویژه در بُعد زیست محیطی را نشان می دهد؛ به گونه ای که میزان مصرف آب در بالاترین حد از وضعیت موجود در دشت صحنه قرار دارد. این موضوع اقتصادی بودن سیستم کشت موجود را تأیید می کند. نتایج نشان می دهد در مدل بهینه سناریوی نهایی بررسی شده علاوه بر آنکه سطح کشت در وضعیت مناسب و کمتر از وضعیت موجود قرار دارد، سود اقتصادی، هدف های زیست محیطی و افزایش عملکرد نیز تأمین شده است؛ در نتیجه پیشنهاد می شود که برای حصول نتایج بهتر در جامعه مطالعه شده به تدریج به اصلاح وضعیت موجود اقدام و سپس برای اطمینان از بروز نتایج مورد انتظار با توجه به شرایط موجود، مدل بهینه به روز رسانی شود.Optimizing the Crop Cultivation Pattern of Sahne Township Based on Limited Water Resources
The increasing demand for limited resources, especially water resources, is one of the most fundamental problems of the agricultural sector. The excessive extraction of water resources, especially underground water resources, has caused the level of underground water resources to decrease. In this regard, planning for the optimal use of these limited resources, taking into account the conflicting goals of increasing profit, increasing performance, and environmental goals, including reducing the consumption of water, fertilizers, and chemical poisons seems necessary. It should be noted that decision-making in such conditions is associated with many complications. The present study aims at optimizing the production of agricultural products by simultaneously considering the goals of profit maximization, yield increase, and minimization of water, fertilizer, and chemical pesticide consumption by using the fuzzy goal programming in the Sanheh Plain for 7 products including wheat, sugar beet, alfalfa, coriander, sunflower, grain corn, and rice. Exploitation of deep and semi-deep wells of this plain was selected as the statistical population of the study. The results show that in the optimal model in the final scenario, in addition to the fact that the cultivated area is in a good condition and less than the existing condition, the economic benefit environmental goals and increased yield have also been provided. As a result, it is suggested that to obtain better results in the studied society, the current situation should be gradually improved and the model should be updated to ensure the expected results according to the existing conditions.Keywords: Agricultural Development, Optimization, Multi-criteria Decision Making, Fuzzy Goal, Resource limitation, Programming. IntroductionDue to agricultural activities that depend heavily on water resources, a shortage of water poses a significant challenge to maintaining income-generating production activities and making efficient use of resources, necessitating the use of a complementary water source (Muditha Perera, 2009). A thorough analysis of Iran's water resource situation reveals significant issues. The country’s water situation has gotten to a critical point due to frequent droughts and excessive surface and subsurface water harvesting (Madani et al., 2016). This has led to the country moving toward the escalation of long-term water tensions. Furthermore, there should be a rise in the number of forbidden plains, which hold over 95% of the nation's subsurface water potential (Ministry of Energy, 2019). However, under the current agricultural system, farmers view maximizing profit as their primary objective and constantly raise input costs to increase profit. An imbalance between agriculture and the environment has resulted from excessive use, which has lowered agricultural product quality standards and even contaminated the environment (Suying, 2017). All of the plains in the agricultural hub province of Kermanshah are in poor condition. The 3% decrease in rainfall over the same long-term period has also led to an increase in the amount of subsurface water resources being extracted. This sum suggests a nine percent reduction in the Sahneh Plain (Regional Water Company of Kermanshah Province, 2023). We see the cultivation of water-intensive crops like rice, the use of traditional irrigation methods, the illegal drilling of wells and the deepening of underground wells, the negligent harvesting of these resources, and the negligent application of chemical fertilizers despite these issues. The result of the country’s trustees for water resources’ efforts to protect and replenish existing resources and use water as efficiently as possible has been undermined by the pursuit of economic profit maximization, despite the deplorable state of the environment and water resources, which farmers are concerned about. In such a situation, implementing tactics to maximize product output while maximizing the utilization of available resources can be considered a suitable course of action. Materials and MethodsThis applied research was carried out using the survey method. For the data analysis, descriptive-analytical data processing was employed. In order to maximize profit, increase yield, and minimize the use of water, chemical fertilizers, and chemical poisons in the Sahneh Plain, this research was conducted to optimize agricultural product production. Users of deep and semi-deep wells (421 users) comprised the investigated community. The Cochran formula, which has 201 users, was used to calculate the sample size. The Agricultural Organization, the Regional Water Organization of Kermanshah Province, the Water Resources Management of Iran, and the Statistics Organization were used to gather secondary data. A researcher-made questionnaire was used to gather the necessary data for the field section. After collecting the data according to the scenarios, the information related to the decision variables for each decision variable is extracted separately and replaced in the objective function. To verify the intended scenarios, a fuzzy goal-planning technique was employed. Research FindingsSeven irrigated crops with the greatest area under cultivation have been studied as decision factors in this study: Wheat, sugar beet, coriander, sunflower, alfalfa, grain corn, and rice are some of these products. Results of the first objective: profit maximizationThis scenario defines 7 decision variables, 1 fuzzy constraint, and 45 definite constraints in total. The model's results indicate that, if maximizing profit is the sole objective, then cultivating wheat, sugar beet, and alfalfa crops, which yield the highest scenario profit, should be taken into consideration. The results of the second objective: increasing performanceIn this scenario, a total of 45 definite constraints, 2 fuzzy constraints, and 7 decision variables are defined. The most optimal possible state, in which the sum of deviations in the objective function is zero, is an increase of 77.7% in the area under wheat cultivation and 34.52% in the area under sugar beet cultivation. In the above scenario, increasing the yield of two crops, wheat and sugar beet, is more strategically important. Therefore, it is possible to use the above function in situations where only increasing performance is of interest. The results of the third objective: minimizing the consumption of water, fertilizers, and chemical poisonsIn this scenario, a total of 45 deterministic constraints, 3 fuzzy constraints, and 7 decision variables are defined. In this function, three ideas of minimizing the consumption of water, fertilizer, and chemical poisons are simultaneously included in the model. According to the obtained results, it can be concluded that the goal of minimizing the consumption of water, fertilizer, and chemical toxins will be achieved by considering the cultivation of crops such as sunflower, coriander, and wheat. In addition, the production of crops such as rice and alfalfa should be avoided. The results of the fourth objective: Optimizing the production of agricultural products by simultaneously considering the goals of maximizing profit-increasing yield and minimizing the consumption of water, fertilizers, and chemical pesticidesIn this scenario, a total of 45 definite constraints, 6 fuzzy constraints, and 7 decision variables are defined. The above goal seeks to cover as many beneficiaries as possible. The results obtained from the analysis of the obtained model show that the highest rate of achieving the result is related to the sunflower crop. Therefore, the cultivation of the above crop can provide favorable economic benefits for farmers. In addition, from an environmental point of view, it has met the goal of minimizing the use of fertilizers and chemical poisons due to the use of less water and less use of fertilizers and chemical poisons than other products. In general, to achieve the above goal, the cultivation of crops such as sunflower, sugar beet, and alfalfa should be on the agenda, and on the other hand, corn cultivation, which has the lowest rate of achieving the goal, should be avoided. Water ConsumptionExamining the amount of water consumption in all the investigated scenarios shows a reduction in consumption compared to the current situation. In the high-level profit maximization scenario allocated to the alfalfa product, which is caused by the high economic value of this product, it has caused the lowest amount of water reduction compared to the existing situation. In the second scenario, however, due to the consideration of two crops, wheat and sugar beet, and not considering other crops in the water consumption model, it may be placed in the lowest state compared to other scenarios. In the third scenario, based on the aim of minimizing the consumption of water, fertilizers, and chemical pesticides, the cultivation of sunflower, coriander, and wheat should be considered. On the other hand, crops such as rice and corn should be avoided. In the fourth goal, the three goals of profit maximization, efficiency increase, and minimization of water, chemical fertilizer, and chemical poison consumption are taken into consideration at the same time. In the above function, the amount of water consumption has decreased significantly compared to the existing conditions, which can be caused by the decrease in the area under rice cultivation. In general, the obtained results show that if the optimized model is used, the amount of water consumption will decrease by 1023/15compared to the existing state Discussion of Results and ConclusionsIt is necessary to employ strategies that enable the simultaneous consideration of these competing objectives in order to arrive at this model. As the seven crops with the largest cultivated area in the community under study (i.e. wheat, sugar beet, alfalfa, coriander, sunflower, seed corn, and rice), the present study was conducted to maximize crop productivity in the Sahneh Plain. Farmers' cultivation practices are not optimal, according to a comparison of the results from the optimized proposed model regarding all of the study area's limitations. Optimizing this model appears to be essential for providing farmers with the expected profit while also allocating scarce resources in the best possible way. The suggested model has accomplished all the intended objectives of raising profit, yield, and decreasing water, fertilizer, and chemical toxicity. The model's optimization results demonstrate that, despite a rise in profit, the above model's application has resulted in a notable reduction in water consumption. It recommended taking action to encourage farmers to use this model by putting in place support programs and policies from the government and pertinent institutions, as a new model might be difficult for the society to accept.
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