شناسایی و تحلیل بازیگران مؤثر در تبدیل شهر ایرانی به جهانشهر اسلامی با رویکرد آینده پژوهی (نمونه موردی: شهر اصفهان) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
با جهانی شدن اقتصاد، نقش دولت ها درمقایسه با گذشته در تبادلات اقتصادی و اجتماعی کشورها کم فروغ تر و به دنبال آن نقش شرکت های بین المللی و شهرهای جهانی چشمگیرتر شده است. در این خصوص سازمان ها و نهادهای داخلی به عنوان عوامل و بازیگران اصلی در ارتقا شهرها از بُعد منطقه ای به جهانی تأثیر گذار هستند. در پژوهش حاضر کوشش شده است تا با رویکرد آینده پژوهی نهاد ها و سازمان های مؤثر در ارتقا شهر اصفهان به جهانشر اسلامی شناسایی و رتبه بندی شود. نوع پژوهش از لحاظ هدف، کاربردی و رویکرد حاکم بر آن روش توصیفی-تحلیلی است. در پژوهش حاضر برای شناسایی متغیر ها و شاخص ها از تکنیک پویش محیطی و دلفی و برای تحلیل داده ها نیز از تحلیل ساختاری در نرم افزار میک مک و مدل مکتور استفاده شده است. طبق یافته های اولیه، بازیگران داخلی مؤثر شامل وزارت اقتصاد، سازمان بورس، وزارت علوم، وزارت راه و شهرسازی، سازمان میراث فرهنگی و وزارت نیروست. با توجه به ارزیابی های انجام شده در نرم افزار مکتور، بیشترین نقش در میان نهادهای تأثیر گذار، وزارت راه و شهرسازی به میزان 29 درصد و وزارت اقتصاد و وزارت علوم هر کدام به میزان 15 درصد بوده است. در مقابل، کمترین مقدار اثرگذاری مربوط به سازمان بورس و وزارت نیرو به میزان 34- درصد بوده است که گویای توانایی این دو نهاد در اثرگذاری بر دیگر بازیگران است.Identification and Analysis of Effective Actors in Transforming the Iranian City into an Islamic Global City with a Future Studies Approach (Case Study: Isfahan City)
Global cities are emerging phenomena that act as connecting places of the global economic network in the context of the global economy and have caused the formation of the space of currents and the emergence of new power centers in the political geography map of the world. In this regard, domestic organizations and institutions are effective as factors (actors) in the promotion of cities from regional to global dimensions. This study aims to identify and rank institutions and organizations that are effective in promoting the city of Isfahan to an Islamic Global City. The current research, with a future studies approach, identifies the most important factors affecting the transformation of Isfahan into an Islamic Global City and identifies key players in this field. This research is practical in terms of its purpose and the dominant approach is the descriptive-analytical method. Environmental scanning and Delphi techniques were used to identify variables and indicators, and structural analysis was used in Mic Mac software and the Mector model for data analysis. According to the findings of the research, the most important domestic players include the Ministry of Economy, the Stock Exchange Organization, the Ministry of Science, Research, and Technology, the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development, the Cultural Heritage Organization, and the Ministry of Energy. According to the evaluations carried out in Mector software, the most influential institutions of the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development, the Ministry of Economy, and the Ministry of Science, Research, and Technology were 29 and 15 percent. On the other hand, the lowest amount of influence is related to the Stock Exchange Organization and the Ministry of Energy (-34%), which shows the ability of these two institutions to influence other actors.Keywords: Islamic Global City, Global City, Isfahan, Future Studies, Actors. IntroductionIn the third decade of 2020, the Middle East region and even the world are undergoing major structural changes. These developments have intensified with the war in Ukraine and the conflict between East and West, and a new order is being formed. In this regard, the leader of Iran has explained three indicators and their outlines (isolation of the United States of America, transfer of power to Asia, and expansion of the ideology of resistance) that can be theorized from the point of view of urban planning. As an example, the North-South corridor passes through Iran, which denotes the increasing power of Asian international organizations such as the Shanghai Organization, ASEAN, etc., and expanding the international communication lines between Asia and the Middle East, such as China's Belt and Road initiative (New Silk Road). It raises the need to pay attention to the metropolises of the Middle East from the point of view of globalization and global communication. The theory of the Islamic World is a new concept that is related to the state of the world economy based on three theories of the world (Saskia Sassen's theory), Islamic City Theory (Najmuddin Bamat's theory), and Umm al-Qora theory of the Islamic World (Mohammed Javad Larijani's theory). The current research, with a future studies approach, investigates the most important factors affecting the transformation of Isfahan into an Islamic Global City and identifies key players in this field. MethodologyMaterials and MethodsThis research is practical in terms of purpose, and according to the investigated components, the governing approach is the descriptive-analytical method. Environmental scanning and Delphi techniques have been used to identify variables and indicators, and structural analysis has been used in Micmac software and the Mector model for data analysis. In scenario-based studies, the expertise and knowledge of experts have been preferred over the general quantity. In addition, the desired sample size should not be less than 25 people (Godet, 2008, p. 18). In this research, in order to consciously select the participants, the purposeful sampling method has been used. The basis of using the purposeful sampling method is to select a group of experts who have a deep investigation or general understanding of the nature of the research questionnaire (Neuman, 2007, p. 1). Based on the above explanations, the statistical population of this research is 50 experts in the field of urban issues, including municipal experts, doctoral students and university professors, cultural heritage and tourism experts, stock exchange experts, and consulting engineers. In this study, in order to maintain the validity of the questionnaire, all the items that measure the research variables (the same factors that are effective in transforming Isfahan into an Islamic Global City) were used from the previous research items conducted under the supervision of experienced professors. Moreover, the opinions of professors and experts on this subject were also used during the interviews to compile the appropriate items for the research topic. Also, the reliability coefficient was obtained through Cronbach's alpha test and SPSS software. The reliabilities of all of them were confirmed. In the last stage of this research, 8 key players have been identified through Mector software. Research FindingsThe Islamic city actors have been identified using the Mector model. The level of competitiveness and competence of these actors has also been investigated. For this purpose, in order to identify the factors influencing Isfahan City as a global-Islamic city, two techniques of environmental scanning and Delphi have been used. The results of this stage led to the identification of 51 primary indicators. The 51 factors in 8 influential indicators have been extracted and entered into the Mic Mac software by forming a matrix of 51 x 51. After identifying the key factors, the key players who play a role in transforming the city of Isfahan into an Islamic Global City, as well as their influence and effectiveness, are evaluated. After identifying the 16 key effective factors, in order to analyze them, we needed to evaluate the stakeholder groups in the city of Isfahan. So, we first identified the key players and then by evaluating the key factors by 6 key players, the final influential factors in the transformation of the city Isfahan to an Islamic Global City were extracted using the Mactor model. These actors include the Ministry of Economy, the Stock Exchange Organization, the Ministry of Science, Research, and Technology, the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development, the Cultural Heritage Organization, and the Ministry of Energy. ConclusionAccording to the findings of the research, the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development has the highest competitiveness with 1.67% and the Ministry of Economy is next with 1.30%. The competitiveness index and qualification index are aligned for all actors. In this way, actors with high competitiveness also have high competence. The amount of positive influence of the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development, the Ministry of Economy, and the Ministry of Science, Research, and Technology was 29 and 15 percent, which indicates their distance from other actors, while the lowest amount of influence was related to the Stock Exchange Organization and the Ministry of Energy (34%). It is indicative of the ability of the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development and the Ministry of Economy to influence other actors. Therefore, among the 6 main actors, the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development and the Ministry of Economy are the most contributors to the foundation of transforming Iranian cities into Islamic cities.
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