رتبه بندی آسیب پذیری شهری در برابر مخاطرۀ زلزله با مدلELECTRE FUZZY (مطالعۀ موردی: شهر کرمان) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
به دلیل قرارگیری شهر کرمان در مرز کوه و دشت، گسل های متعددی در محدوده و مناطق مجاور این شهر وجود دارد که بعضی از آنها موجب بروز زلزله های بسیار مخرب می شود. این شهر ازنظر معماری دارای یک هسته مرکزی بسیار قدیمی و اغلب از ساختمان های خشتی و گلی است که میزان آسیب پذیری زیادی دارد. بر این اساس، بررسی های دقیق و علمی آسیب پذیری لرز ه ای از ضروریات مدیریت شهری کرمان و دلیل اصلی انتخاب این شهر به عنوان منطقه موردمطالعه است. روش پژوهش و تجزیه وتحلیل اطلاعات، مبتنی بر پایگاه داده و مدل Electre Fuzzyاست که در این پژوهش معیارهای: کیﻔی ﺖ اﺑﻨی ﻪ (ساختمان ها)، ﺗ ﺮاکﻢ خانوار در هر واحد مسکونی، عرض معابر، فاصله از گسل، فاصله از مراکز درمانی، دسترسی به ایستگاه آتش نشانی، دسترسی به فضای سبز، دسترسی به مراکز اسکان موقت و کاربری اراضی اﺳ ﺘﻔﺎده شد. نتایج حاصل حاکی از آن است که منطقه 4 و5 شهری کرمان، آسیب پذیرترین مناطق در برابر وقوع زلزله است. در پهنه بندی آسیب پذیری خطر زلزله در شهر کرمان مساحت آسیب پذیری زیاد در منطقه 4/28 درصد و در منطقه 5/23 درصد است. بیش از 50 درصد مساحت با رتبه بندی آسیب پذیری زیاد در این مناطق واقع شده است. همچنین مناطق شهری 1، 3 و 2 به ترتیب در رتبه های بعدی پهنه آسیب پذیری زیاد قرار دارد.Urban Vulnerability Rating against Earthquake Hazard Using ELECTRE FUZZY Model: A Case Study of Kerman City
Due to the location of Kerman city on the border of mountains and plains, there are several faults in its vicinity, some of which can cause very destructive earthquakes. The city has a very old central core in terms of architecture and is mainly made of brick and mud buildings that have a high level of vulnerability. Based on this, detailed and scientific studies of seismic vulnerability are among the necessities of Kerman urban management. Therefore, this city was chosen as the study area in this study. The information research and analysis methods were database-based methods and ELECTRE FUZZY model. In this study, quality of buildings, household density in a residential unit, width of passages, distance from the faults, distance from medical centers, access to the fire-fighting station, access to green space, access to temporary accommodation centers, and land use were examined. The results indicated that the 4 th and 5 th urban areas of Kerman City were the most vulnerable areas against earthquakes. The vulnerability zoning of earthquake risk in this city revealed that the areas of high vulnerability were 28 and 23% in Zones 4 and 5, respectively. More than 50% of the area with high vulnerability rating was located in these areas. Also, Urban Areas 1, 3, and 2 were in the next ranks of high vulnerability zone, respectively. Introduction Due to the location of Iran on one of the two seismic belts in the world and existence of many faults in this country, occurrence of earthquakes in the Iranian plateau is normal. Due to the location of Kerman City on the border of mountains and plains, there are several faults in its vicinity, some of which can cause very destructive earthquakes. The city has a very old central core in terms of architecture and is mainly made of brick and mud buildings that have a high level of vulnerability. Considering the importance of the issue of assessing vulnerability of cities to earthquakes, as well as the issues of geography and urban planning, GIS method and spatial and descriptive data of the main components and behavioral elements were utilized to make an appropriate estimate of the risk of earthquake and determine the effect of each vulnerability factor in the mentioned city. Methodology A descriptive-analytical research was done through data analysis method according to database-based methods and by using GIS-based software. The physical factors of urban planning in this study were as follows: 1) quality of building, 2) household density in a residential unit, 3) width of passage, 4) distance from fault, 5) distance from medical center, 6) access to the fire-fighting station, 7) access to green space, 8) access to temporary accommodation center, and 9) land use. Fuzzy model was used for weighting the factors and the weighting factors were placed in a function to identify vulnerability of the city fabric using GIS. Discussion Fuzzyization could be done directly by using algorithms or logic expressions. The method of number Fuzzyization used in this research included the two methods of direct and expert calculations. In the expert calculation method, after determining the amplitude of changes in each parameter, the domains were classified based on the previous studies and then, they were manually calculated according to reality and weighted according to the experts’ opinions. After matching the areas specified in the detailed plan of the city with the comprehensive urban plan map, the boundaries of urban areas were carefully determined and then, each parameter was given tabular information in Arc Map. After assigning the data to each layer, weighting was performed according to the vulnerability spectrum of each parameter. The classifications were based on the previous studies and research. After obtaining the fuzzy data, the ELECTRE method was used to integrate the fuzzy layers with each other and deduce the final map that showed the effect of each parameter in vulnerability against the different real risks of earthquake. Conclusion By investigating and evaluating the seismic vulnerability of Kerman City, analyzing the information collected based on database-based methods, and using the ELECTRE FUZZY model and the mentioned criteria, the high vulnerability of Kerman Regions 4 and 5 were determined. In general, based on the vulnerability zoning of earthquake risk in Kerman, the areas of high vulnerability were obtained to be 28 and 23% in Zones 4 and 5, respectively. In fact, more than 50% of the area with high vulnerability rating was located in these areas. Also, Urban Areas 1, 3, and 2 were in the next ranks of high vulnerability zone, respectively. The percentages of medium vulnerability areas were 13 and 15% in Regions 4 and 5, respectively. Moreover, the percentages of low vulnerability areas were 59 and 62% in Regions 4 and 5, respectively. Keyword: earthquake, fault, old texture of Kerman, Vulnerability References - Antonioni Gigliola, G., &Cozzani, Valerio. (2007). A Methodology for the Quantitative Risk , Triggered by Seismic Events. Journal of Hazardous Materials, As sessment of Major Accidents. - Bazazanlotfi, S., & Rahimi, M. (2017). A Study on Vulnerability of UrbanNeighborhoods to Earthquake (Case Study: Farahzad Neighborhood, Tehran) . Journal of Civil Engineering and Materials Application,1(1):1-7. https://doi: 10.15412/J.JCEMA.12010101. - Estrada, M., Zavala, C.,Lazares, F., & Morales, J. (2012). GIS Tool for Calculating Repair Cost of Buldings Due to Earthquakes Effects (CCRE - CISMID) . 9th International Conference on Urban Earthquake Engineering/ 4th Asia Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan, pp 1695- 1698. - Sadrykia, M.,Delavar, M.,&Zare, M. (2017). A GIS-Based Fuzzy Decision Making Model for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment in Areas with Incomplete Data , ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2017, 6(4): 119, doi: 10.3390/ijgi6040119. - Saafizadeh, M., &Bagheripour, M. H. (2019). Evaluation of peak ground acceleration for the city of Kerman through seismic hazard analysis . Scientia Iranica A (2019) 26(1), 257-272. - Shamsipour, A. A., &Shekhi, M. (2010). Zoning of Sensitive Area and Environment Vulnerable in West of Fars Province using Fazzy and AHP Classification, Physical Geography Research Quarterly , 73(73):53-68. - Wang, X., & Triantaphyllou, E. (2008). Ranking irregularities when evaluating alternatives by using some ELECTRE methods . 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