Futures Study

Every year, crises cause extensive and occasionally irreversible damage to countries and human societies affecting communities, economies, and environments. Identifying, proper planning, and optimum managing of crises are among the priorities of government programs and procedures. With the expansion and complexity of the societies and variety and innumerability of crisis-making factors, mere use of traditional methods of reinforcement and crisis management would not be efficient. One of the most important ideas brought about in the present decade for crisis management and urban planning is creating resilient cities in the face of various crises by increasing their capacity in all aspects. The significance of this standpoint is the comprehensive look at crisis-making factors, controlling crises, and reduction of vulnerability, particularly in human resources, which speeds the resilience process. Although all infrastructural or environmental, economic, social-cultural, and organizational or institutional aspects have been taken into consideration in resilience, the focus on social and cultural capacitating in each and every citizen would be greatly effectual in a developing country such as Iran. This land endures weak infrastructures and structures, but enjoys a rich cultural and national support from the citizens’ creativity and participation that can help us with achieving the goal of flexibility in crisis management by spending the least amount of time and money. In the present paper, the experiences of other nations and novel concepts such as creative cities, resistant development, principles of futures study and planning, and process-oriented strategic management have been studied along with the current state of Iran. Finally, the method of “Strategic Futures Study and Planning based on GIS” is suggested as a suitable approach in crisis management planning. In the author’s point of view, complete use of this method could help us significantly reduce the losses of disasters and pioneer in the field of crisis management among developing countries.<br /> <strong> </strong>

Purpose - Achieving balanced development and spatial justice with much emphasis on competitive advantages has been constantly the main concern among planners and policy-makers to reduce inefficiency, inequality, polarization, and fragmentation in the spatial structure of different countries. Fulfilling such goals demands the knowledge of local potentials and the way to exploit them in a correct manner. Therefore, this study aimed to identify competitive advantages and levels of living in the study area, and then assess the effective drivers of balanced regional development (BRD) based on local competitiveness using future studies. Design/methodology/approach- An analytical-exploratory applied method was used to reflect on the rural areas and the researchers working on regional planning in Ardabil Township, Iran, were the statistical population. The sample size was thus determined to be 30 individuals using the snowball sampling method (via theoretical saturation). The data were also collected by a Delphi questionnaire, library method, documents, statistics, and initiatives. To analyze the data, Micmac software, the Geographic Information System (GIS software), Microsoft EXCEL, and the Morris method were employed. Finding- Analyzing the research findings associated with the variables as determinants with direct influence showed that among 23 variables in this study, 13 cases were within direct influence-dependence scope or condition but only 12 variables prioritized respectively as policy stability, executive regulations/procedures, price stability and predictability and intervention logic, monopoly prevention, unfair concessions or rents and competitions, removal of administrative barriers to business through delegation approach, effective deterrence of criminal laws and prosecutions in the judicial system, innovation/initiative flow, prevention of biased perceptions of laws by relevant stakeholders, distribution system and marketing status, effective market demand, administrative procedures and business information transparency, willingness to buy foreign goods, as well as auditing and taxing regulations/procedures as determinants had the highest influential power, that is, they constituted the drivers of BRD. Research limitations/implications - Among the most important limitations of the present study was no access to the statistics of all cases and the unwillingness of a number of executive organizations and bodies in Ardabil Township to cooperate. Furthermore, the pivot strategies in this research were established based on local development and BRD strategies. Practical implications - To meet the objectives of BRD planning in the rural areas of Ardabil Township, the key role of the 12 main variables mentioned here should be taken into account. Such variables have high influence and low dependence on BRD improvements in the study area and they are of top priority in planning for BRD based on local competitiveness in the rural areas of Ardabil County, Iran. Originality/Value - Little research has thus far assessed the effective drivers of BRD based on local competitiveness using future studies. Amongst the advantages of the present study, the comprehensiveness and impediment of its research criteria stand out.

This study aimed to investigate the resilience of sports clubs as business enterprises in the crisis caused by the Coronavirus epidemic. Thirty-five experts in the field of sports club management were interviewed in three rounds of interviewing. In the first round, the main questions for the interview was determined, and then two series of interviews were carried out with experts. Basis of the analysis in the second one was content analysis approache. A summary of the answers given to the sample and interviewing were conducted again. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and one-sample t-tests were used to measure the resilience. In the next study section, the propulsive forces identified with the Delphi technique and prioritized based on the degree of importance and uncertainty, and Micmac was used to write possible scenarios. Results indicated that resilience of sports clubs was not in a good condition in the presence of crises and challenges. The findings showed that poor management of sports clubs and low income were the most influential critical factors in resilience. A low partnership index with a total of 201619 had the highest impact. Organizations that responded quickly and actively and were user-friendly under adverse economic conditions were more likely to succeed.