مطالب مرتبط با کلیدواژه

Decision Making


۱.

Forecasting the Profitability in the Firms Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange Using Data Envelopment Analysis and Artificial Neural Network(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلیدواژه‌ها: Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Fuzzy DEA Earnin predicting Decision Making

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۵۵۶ تعداد دانلود : ۴۴۵
Profitability as the most important factor in decision-making, has always been considered by stake­holders in the company's profitability. Also can be a basis for evaluating the performance of the managers. The ability to predict the profitability can be very useful to help decision-makers. That's why one of the most important issues is the expected profitability. The importance of these forecasts depends on the amount of misalignment with reality. The amount of deviation is less than the forecast of higher accuracy. Although there are various methods for predicting but the use of artificial intelligence techniques is increasing due to fewer restriction. The aim of this study is to evaluate the predictive power of profitability using DEA and neutral network, to enhance the decision-making users of 2012 to 2015of 7 premier financial ratios were used as independent variables. Test results show that both of ANN and DEA have ability to forecast profitability and given that neutral network prediction accuracy is higher than the DEA, the model predict better the profitability of companies.
۲.

Considering the Coefficient of Relationship between the Students’ Attitude toward Social Networks Policy making with Social Security Feeling(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلیدواژه‌ها: attitude Policy Making Social Networks planning Decision Making Law-orientation Execution Social Security

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۵۱۱ تعداد دانلود : ۳۵۲
Abstract: This study aims at measuring the relationship between students‟ attitude toward govern-ment‟s virtual social network policy making with social security feeling, in another word, to which extent social security feeling emphasizing on social networks is determined via users‟ attitude toward government‟s media policy making? Analytical-descriptive method including survey is used in this paper; the method used for data collection is the design of the question-naire. The statistical community was “all the students in Azad University of East Tehran Branch”; the sample included “363 persons” and the sampling method was proportional sort-ing probable. Findings show that, the most correlation is related to the legitimacy index with a correlation coefficient of 85%, planning with correlation coefficient n of 45%, and decision making of government with correlation coefficient n of 41% and government policy making execution index with correlation coefficient n of 44% has the least correlation coefficient. Thus, it can be said that, by increasing legitimacy, planning, and decision making of the gov-ernment, students‟ attitude toward policy making is accelerated and amount of social security of students increase intermediately, that is, a direct and an intermediate correlation relation between three mentioned indices of government‟s media policy making with variable of stu-dents‟ social security. However, there is a weak correlation relation in another index, i.e. poli-cy execution, in another word; there is a direct and weak correlation relation between the re-lated index and social security of students. It means that, students have a negative attitude to-ward non-significant execution of policies and a weak feel of social security.
۳.

Congressional Foreign Policy Actors on the Two Iran Banking Sanction Laws during the Obama Administration(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلیدواژه‌ها: actors Congress Decision Making Iran Sanctions

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۳۲۲ تعداد دانلود : ۳۱۵
The United States and Iran as former allies turned into adversaries after the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Since then the United States has tried to contain Iran as a state considered to be a threat to the U.S. national security. The U.S. Congress has also acted in line with the administrations’ policies and in some cases directed the administration to take a tougher stance toward Iran. A review of the literature on congressional studies indicates that the power of individual actors in legislative policymaking has increased since the 1970s. Using the Bounded Rational Model in foreign policy decision making, the present paper attempts to explain the decision making behavior of congressional sanction bill sponsors for the two financial/banking sanction laws against Iran during the Obama administration. These two laws are the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act of 2010 and Section 1245 of the National Defense Authorization Act of 2012. The method of qualitative content analysis is employed to explain the context of the bills and the sanction triggers and goals are identified through the remarks of bill sponsors. The analysis of these sanction laws using the four elements of actor, preference, structure, and decision criteria indicates that the Bounded Rational Model as it takes into account the decision makers’ cognitive limitations and the limitations imposed on them by the environment of decision making is a good model to explain the decision making behavior of banking sanction bill sponsors.
۴.

Designing a Specific Model for Technology Transfer in the Oil, Gas & Petrochemical Sectors(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:

کلیدواژه‌ها: strategy Decision Making Technology Package Technology Transfer Catching up

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۳۱۰ تعداد دانلود : ۳۷۵
Technology Transfer is a process which technology supplier can transfer technology to receiver through it by numerous activities. Now in Iran, lots of companies are facing difficulties in correct implementation of technology transfer. Varying complexity and specific nature of each of the technologies has been caused many problems to technology transfer process design. In the other hand, the lack of integration between the components of the technology transfer process and the lack of consistency in the way of transferring with the company's strategies has been caused additional difficulties. In this paper, we have attempted to design the model of technology transfer process in the Oil, Gas and Petrochemical industry which includes three stages of " decision making, technology transfer and acquisition the knowledge".The model is derived from the literature survey and is developed based on the experiences with adding necessary elements in order to resolve the problems. In order to validate the model, it is used for DMD technology transfer in RIPI.
۶.

Novice Non-Native English Language Teachers’ Imaginary and Actual Decision Making and Pedagogical Reasoning: Student and Personal Features(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلیدواژه‌ها: Decision Making pedagogical reasoning novice teachers student features personal features

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۳۰۳ تعداد دانلود : ۱۹۴
Two of the central concepts in teaching skills are decision making and pedagogical reasoning. Taking benefit from the dearth of studies on teachers’ actual or real-world decisions, this study aimed to respond to this invitation by keeping track of novice Iranian English as a foreign language (EFL) teachers’ decisions in two different times using six research-oriented teaching scenarios reflecting the student and personal features. Furthermore, their pedagogical reasoning was also attended to once through their responses to imaginary teaching scenarios and once through their actual classroom decisions. The participants comprised of ten novice Iranian EFL (six female and four male) teachers with an age range of 19 to 25 and a male experienced teacher, aged 30, who acted as a researcher-as-participant and was only accountable for the novices’ real-world reasoning. The data were collected through utilizing a total of six teaching scenarios, classroom observation, and video stimulated recalls. The findings, obtained through conversation analysis and pertinent vignettes and excerpts, revealed that the participants underwent a change in their decisions in two of the three scenarios reflecting the student features, while an approximate conformity could be observed in all scenarios mirroring personal features. It was revealed that whenever the teachers’ reasoning changed, their decisions underwent some changes as well. In addition, the findings showed that the flow of conversation in the classroom could be strongly influenced by the teachers’ decisions. A number of implications and recommendations for further research are also pinpointed.
۷.

Identifying and Informing Novice Iranian English Language Teachers’ Classroom Decision Making and Pedagogical Reasoning Regarding Managerial Mode(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلیدواژه‌ها: SETT framework Decision Making pedagogical reasoning managerial mode novice teachers

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۳۲۲ تعداد دانلود : ۱۷۰
Decision making and pedagogical reasoning are regarded as two of the important concepts underlying teaching skills. This study aimed to first identify the novice Iranian English as a Foreign Language (EFL) teachers’ initial decision making and pedagogical reasoning in terms of managerial mode. More importantly, it sought to inform the teachers’ decisions and reasoning through some one-to-one feedback sessions, which were interactively held between every novice teacher and an experienced teacher. The participants were one experienced (male) and five novice (four females and one male) teachers. To collect the data, a number of teaching scenarios, classroom observations, stimulated recalls, and the Self-Evaluation of Teacher Talk (SETT) framework were used. The analysis of the data using conversation analysis showed that the novice teachers benefited from their negotiated interactions with the experienced teacher and applied the points regarding all five pedagogic goals of managerial mode in the framework. After the feedback sessions, the teachers could confidently defend their decisions pedagogically when enquired for reasons. The findings showed that modifying the teachers’ decision would not be successfully ensured until they reached the “aha” of the moment or a new understanding, which is the last stage in reforming one’s pedagogical reasoning. One way to achieve this moment is through raising the teachers’ awareness of the essential metalanguage. It is thus suggested that officials in charge and institute managers provide such learning opportunities for teachers so that they take more serious steps toward their own professional development through such frameworks as SETT
۸.

Optimizing OLAP Cube for Supporting Business Intelligence and Forecasting in Banking Sector(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلیدواژه‌ها: On-Line Analytical Processing Business Intelligence Business Forecasting Data Warehouse Decision Making

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۳۷۷ تعداد دانلود : ۱۵۷
The data stored in data warehouse is used for making strategic decisions by integrating heterogeneous data from multiple sources at a single storage place, where data is used for querying and analysis purposes. With the advancement in the technology, Business Analytics and Business intelligence are being increasingly used in the financial sector for forecasting business decisions. Many On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP) tools are being largely explored that can contribute to business decision making. Banking operation handles a lot of data as they operate daily. Subsequently, preparing of this tremendous volume of information requires instant and quick tools that can process the information at high processing speeds. Through this research paper, we represent the OLAP cube as one of the tools which can be used for business analysis. A case study of a bank and loan approval process is considered as one of the areas for implementation and analysis of business decisions using business intelligence which can serve as a key factor for increasing intelligence in the banking sector to make reliable business decisions. Higher management can forecast and predict various outcomes from the bank data warehouse using On-Line Analytical Processing technology which provided a multidimensional view of the data. Analysts can make business decisions by analyzing the reports and pattern trends in the graphs. Management can modify existing policies and procedures to increase the growth of the bank and can have a healthy competition with their competitors.
۹.

Local Parking Positioning by Using the Linear Assignment Method (Case Study: Qazvin, Iran)(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلیدواژه‌ها: Positioning Parking Linear Assignment Rating (Scoring) Multiple Attributes Decision Making

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۲۱۷ تعداد دانلود : ۸۱
Concerning the population growth and urban development, significant growth in the rate of personal car usage has caused more transportation and thus growth in occupying the street areas for parking vehicles. This has caused much transporting problems and traffic. Hence concerning the parking issue is crucial in traffic and municipal management.The important issue is the suitable place for the parking areas. If there would not be any demand for assessment and evaluation of the traffic and municipal criteria, the constructed parking area would not be much usable and cause some difficulties in transferring lines,thus the expenses paid for building the parking will be wasted.Hence, in this article, the influential indexes for parking place in three different areas of Qazvin are introduced and discussed. Regarding the qualitative municipal criteria, we have used the multi-criteria linear assignment method for comparing and considering the indexes and region, and finally rating these regions for parking.
۱۰.

China's Reaction to External Threats from the Perspective of Foreign Policy and International Politics Theories(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلیدواژه‌ها: China The Level of Analysis Foreign Policy Analyses deterrence Decision Making

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۲۶۱ تعداد دانلود : ۱۳۲
China’s increasing power as one of the most important revisionist powers has received different reactions from its neighbors and the dominant powers of the international system. In fact, China as a rising and revisionist power challenges the regional and hegemonic order. In such a situation, the deterrent actions exerted by the United States, as a hegemon of international system, seems to be natural. The present research is an attempt to study China’s reactions to foreign threats from the perspective of theories of International Politics and Foreign Policy Analysis. The paper enjoys a descriptive-analytical design with the application of the theory on the case. The data collection was made through the study of existing literature and virtual data. The findings of this study show that China's reaction to existing or potential threats can carry very different interpretations and analytical results from the perspective of different theoretical perspectives.
۱۱.

Decline of Auditor's Financial Bias in Decision making by Professionalism in Auditing: Rough Set Analysis(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلیدواژه‌ها: Perceptions Bias Financial Bias Professional Audit Decision Making

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۱۱۵ تعداد دانلود : ۱۰۴
The purpose of the research Decline of Auditors' Financial Bias in Decision making by Professionalism in Auditing: Rough Set Analysis. The research approach is of inductive-deductive type in terms of the data collection meth-od, because it was first determined based on the content analysis of the com-ponents and propositions related to the professional characteristics, then it was tried to confirm or delete the propositions based on the Delphi analysis. This research by participating 14 individuals of the audit partners with the academic degrees over a one-year period, 2018-2019. The results According to the formation of decision making matrix, the results showed that both propositions, the perceptual error of failure to separate the context from con-tent as the Halo bias and the perceptual error of the experience of fraud de-tection in the financial statement as memory bias were determined as the most influential perceptual errors in the audit profession in Iran. In addition, according to gray vikor theory analysis, it was found that the component of the audit's professional maturity was selected as the most important priority and the most effective feature for reducing the audit perceptual bias.
۱۲.

The role of intuition in managerial decision-making: Islamic approach(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلیدواژه‌ها: intuition beliefs Islamic Approach Decision Making Managers

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۸۱ تعداد دانلود : ۶۳
Current theories argue that decision making is largely based on quick and intuitive processes.The results of study on topping organizations show that successful decision-makings are intuitive rather than rational. Therefore in recent years the issue of intuition and intuitive decision making as an effective management has attracted increasing attention in scientific circles and world-class research. Identify the components and designing intuition conceptual model in decision making based on the Islamic approach is the main purpose of this article. In the main stage of article which is Qur'anic approach, concepts and issues related to intuition were identified using data-based grounded theory strategy and Tafsir al-Mizan. The results of the study is emergence of 86 concepts which were categorized in 18 subsidiaries and 7 main concepts using the seminary and academic expert&rsquos perspectives.