درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

Making an agreement between Iran and an integrated countries bloc like Shanghai Cooperation Organization or Eurasian Economic Union to boost energy trade is considered as an efficient factor to improve multilateralism and regionalism of Iranian economy. However, the outbreak of COVID-19 has had caused serious and unprecedented consequences on globalization and regionalization. This research seeks to find out the relationship between COVID19 and regional energy integration for two cases of South Asia and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). To estimate the coefficients of variables, the panel data framework based on quarterly data over 2010Q1-2020Q2 is employed. The major results reveal that the COVID19 pandemic is found to be a serious challenge for regional energy integration in these two unions, particularly the integration of larger economies which are more developed and have a higher level of trade liberalization are disturbed by this pandemic. A policy implication based on the conclusions is that Iran may try to make regional energy integration with its neighbors and trading partners. However, to reduce the long-run negative impacts of pandemic, Iran and its energy trade partners should make a plan to determine types and magnitudes of negative impacts of pandemic, regulating monetary and fiscal policies to encounter with the negative influences. To the best of author’s knowledge, despite some earlier researches, there is not any existing literature focusing on how the Corona affects the economic integration. Therefore, this paper tries to fill in this literature gap.

Nowadays, supply chains are highly vulnerable and prone to various risks due to geographical expansion and the complexity of communication networks. Sustainability in supply chains is increasingly seen as part of supply chain management. Sustainability has become a necessity, and every supply chain needs sustainability. However, the supply chain has a breadth and complexity of indicators. This paper aims to provide a model for evaluating the impact of the sustainable supply chain on organizational performance and efficiency in the National Iranian South Petroleum Company (NISOC). This study consists of two quantitative studies and a qualitative stage by designing several questions and using a mixed research method. The qualitative stage uses grounded theory methods following a systematic review of the literature on sustainable supply chain management and its adaptation to the local needs of the sustainable supply chain in one of the country’s largest oil companies. The statistical population of the research includes all employees of the NISOC with an unlimited number, of which 384 subjects are randomly selected as samples. In this study, a questionnaire is used as the data collection tool. The questionnaire designed in this research is based on a 5-point Likert scale. Options range from strongly agree to disagree strongly. The research hypotheses are tested using SmartPLS software. According to the results, the organizational performance and efficiency in the NISOC are affected by the green supply chain, industry supply chain, macro policies, socioeconomic factors, organizational factors, political factors, technology, manufactured products, customers, and supply chain failures. As shown in this study, using sustainable approaches to the supply chain of the petroleum company improves the situation of this organization and increases its effectiveness and efficiency. Further, the performance of individual components of organizations increases due to the sustainability model in this company

The main objective of this study was to investigate the effect of monetary policy on changes in the price of financial assets (including foreign exchange, gold and stocks) in Iranian economy. In this regard, this paper answers whether monetary policy could lead to regime changes in asset markets. To answer this question, monthly data during the years 1995 to 2017 and a combination of Markov Switching and Probit methods were used. First, using Markov Switching method, each market was divided into two high-volatility and low-volatility regimes with different average returns, and then, by a Probit model, the effect of monetary policy on the probability of markets being exposed to these regimes was studied. The results of this study show that in all three markets, the Markov Switching model offers better fit than the linear model, which indicates the occurrence of regime changes in the markets. The results of the Probit model show that monetary policy in all three markets is effective on their regime changes, and an expansionary monetary policy will strengthen the position of all three markets in the high-volatility regime with a positive average return. Also, inflation is also one of the factors affecting regime changes in all three markets. The market situation in the past period as well as the situation of other markets are among the factors that lead to regime changes in asset markets. The sanctions imposed on Iran's economy in the currency and gold markets are among the factors that have strengthened the likelihood of changing the regime of these two markets to a volatile environment.

Estimates of instrumental rules can be utilized to describe central bank's behavior and monetary policy stance. In the last decade, considerable attention has been given to time-varying parameter (TVP) specification of monetary policy rules. Constant-parameter reaction functions likely ignore the impact of model uncertainty, shifting preferences and nonlinearities of policymaker's choices. This paper examines the evolution of monetary policy reaction function in Iran via estimating a time-varying parameter (TVP) specification in the 1990:2-2014:4 period. We try to find out whether there is a significant time variation in coefficient of CBI (the Central Bank of Iran) reaction function. The main findings are threefold. First, monetary policy rules changed over time, hence making relevant the application of a time-varying estimation framework. Second, the monetary instrument smoothing parameter is much lower than typically reported by previous time-invariant estimates of policy rules. Third, CBI does not systematically follow instrumental rule to fight inflation. During the whole sample, there is no quarter in which the inflation gap coefficient is negative and significant; therefore, monetary policy has not counteracted inflationary pressures. Key words: Monetary policy, Instrumental rule, monetary policy reaction function, Time varying coefficient, Extended Kalman filter. JEL Classification: E4, E5

The paper focuses on regional trade agreements and economic co-operation and develops a new appropriate approach to study their impact on growth and trade. The approach is based on an endogenous trade-growth theory and novelly specified in an economic integration (expenditure) framework which is the conceptual foundation of regional trade agreements. Importantly, it also appropriately takes into account major add- and sub-factors as recommended by Johansen, the computable general equilibrium pioneer, in practical economic planning and policy modelling. Applications of the approach to China, a key member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement group, are also reported to provide useful insights for suitable evidence-based impact analysis. The analysis has relevance to such trading blocs as BRICS and the 21-member Indian Ocean Rim Association where Iran is a key member. Policy implications from the findings are then briefly discussed.