درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

This study aimed to develop Oil approaches affected by effective factors for the success of economy-based entrepreneurship in the Oil Industry. In other words, efforts were made to identify and prioritize the factors affecting the development of Oil approaches under the impact of effective factors for the success of economy-based entrepreneurship in the Oil Industry. A review of the previous studies in this field revealed that the factors affecting the development of Oil approaches affected by factors involved in the success of economy-based entrepreneurship in the Oil Industry were institutional, organizational, environmental, economic, technological and opportunity recognition criteria. The present research was applied in terms of goal and survey, cross-sectional regarding data collection method and time frame. The statistical population consisted of experts in the country’s oil industry system. In total, 16 individuals were selected from the central bank managers by purpose sampling. Data were collected using an expert questionnaire, and the fuzzy Delphi method was applied to ensure the validity of the identified indicators. In addition, the reliability of paired comparisons was assessed by calculating the incompatibility rates via the Gogus and Butcher method. In this regard, reliability was acceptable in all cases of less than 0.1. The ranking of key criteria showed that economic factors had of the highest importance, followed by institutional, environmental, organizational, opportunity recognition process, and technological factors.

This paper aims to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) using GARCH type models with improved return distribution. Value at Risk (VaR) is an essential benchmark for measuring the risk of financial markets quantitatively. The parametric method, historical simulation, and Monte Carlo simulation have been proposed in several financial mathematics and engineering studies to calculate VaR, that each of them has some limitations. Therefore, these methods are not recommended in the case of complications in financial modeling since they require considering a series of assumptions, such as symmetric distributions in return on assets. Because the stock exchange data in the present study are skewed, asymmetric distributions along with symmetric distributions have been used for estimating VaR in this study. In this paper, the performance of fifteen VaR models with a compound of three conditional volatility characteristics including GARCH, APARCH and GJR and five distributional assumptions (normal, Student’s t, skewed Student’s t and two different Lévy distributions, include normal-inverse Gaussian (NIG) and generalized hyperbolic (GHyp)) for return innovations are investigated in the chemical, base metals, automobile, and cement industries. To do so, daily data from of Tehran Stock Exchange are used from 2013 to 2020. The results show that the GJR model with NIG distribution is more accurate than other models. According to the industry index loss function, the highest and lowest risks are related to the automotive and cement industries.

The present article aims to argue indirect expropriation in international petroleum agreements and to analyse the response of international arbitrations. In particular, international arbitral awards by the Iran-US Claims Tribunal, the Yukos case as an Energy Charter Treaty Arbitration and certain North American Free Trade Agreement cases have been examined. The recent trend shows that taking of foreign investors’ property may take place not only through legislation or nationalisation but also by indirect methods that can have the same effect as direct expropriation. Indirect expropriation does not necessarily require transfer of legal title from the international oil company to the host state. Hence, it is difficult to make a distinction between legitimate regulation and measures, which are tantamount to expropriation with the payment of compensation. The identification of an indirect expropriation is complex and depends upon the examination of the legitimate expectations of the investor concerning enjoyment of its investment. Host governments may employ different methods to achieve what amounts to direct taking, but without acknowledging it as such, to avoid legal consequences of expropriation and then payment of compensation.