محمود مدیری

There are many opportunities and threats in the decision-making environment for managers, and an organization must use research and information systems to change, monitor, and anticipate this environment. Futurism reflects how tomorrow reality gives birth to tomorrow's reality is. The purpose of this research; Analyzing the role of futures studies in the existing patterns of critical factors of multi-criteria decision-making techniques in operations research using the philosophical assumptions of the classical and critical paradigms and finally determining the appropriate strategy based on these components, to increase success and life expectancy. The present study intends to formulate exploratory scenarios of this knowledge by using the critical uncertainty approach. To develop credible scenarios of knowledge of decision techniques, the opinions of 15 experts in this field were collected using the fuzzy Delphi approach and through the critical uncertainty questionnaire. After extracting the most important uncertainties, plausible scenarios of decision-making techniques were determined with the help of experts. According to the results obtained from the opinion of experts from the critical uncertainty questionnaire, four research uncertainties were identified, identified and the scenario design criteria were used. Each of the four cases, which includes low attention to social issues versus high attention to social issues, low attention to ethical models versus high attention to ethical models, low attention to soft approaches versus high attention to soft approaches, Low attention to complex issues versus high attention to complex issues indicates a specific dual situation in the future. Each of these dual situations indicates uncertainty about the future of multi-criteria decision making. Based on these uncertainties, three scenarios were identified. These scenarios include Achilles heel, phoenix, and heel. Also, semi-structured interviews with the theme analysis approach were used, and the philosophy of past and future approaches in this field was reviewed and critiqued.

Though financial services outsourcing has been increasing during the last decades, most outsourcing projects have failed due to qualitative criteria used in decision-making as well as being unaware of differences in environmental circumstances. This study aims at designing a model of deciding on outsourcing in state banks. The data of this applied, developmental research was collected, using descriptive-survey method and two instruments, namely, interview and quantitative were used in qualitative and quantitative sections, respectively. The sample of the study comprises of banking experts working in six state banks and the Central Bank of Iran. The initial model was derived, based on an analysis of the aspects of variables as well as the indices obtained from the theoretical principles and previous studies. The final research model, which consists of 6 factors and 22 subfactors was developed, using the Fuzzy Delphi Method and in triple consultation with 20 banking experts. The criteria were weighted, and the relationship between the criteria was examined, using F-DEMATEL method and ANP. The results of the study indicate that the following are the most significant criteria driving the decisions made by state banks on activities outsourcing: reliance on service providers, cost, the rapid delivery of services by the contractors, gaining competitive advantage, the existence of multiple contractors, improved control and overseeing.