نظام تحریم گرایی و اقتصاد سیاسی تحریم در سیاست داخلی و خارجی آمریکا: واکاوی اثربخشی و چالش های تحریم گرایی آمریکا (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
تحریم اقتصادی یک سیاست برنامه ریزی شده با هدف اعمال محدودیت های اقتصادی، تجاری و سیاسی برای دستیابی به اهداف سیاسی از قبیل تغییر در رفتار بازیگران، تغییر رژیم و کنترل تسلیحات است. در طول چند دهه اخیر، آمریکا با استفاده از جهان روایی دلار و نقش کانونی خود در نظام اقتصادی، بانکی و مالی جهانی، کاربست تحریم ها را در سیاست خارجی خود افزایش داده به نحوی که بر اساس برخی برآوردها بیش از سه چهارم کل تحریم های جهان، از جانب این کشور اعمال شده است. با توجه به اهمیت مسئله تحریم ها، پژوهش حاضر، این پرسش های کلیدی را طرح می کند که تحریم های اقتصادی چه روندی را در چهارچوب سیاست خارجی آمریکا تجربه کرده اند؟ آیا تحریم های اقتصادی آمریکا اثرگذار هستند؟ چه چالش هایی پیشِ روی نظام تحریم های اقتصادی آمریکا در ساخت داخلی این کشور و همچنین نظم بین المللی وجود دارد؟ پژوهش حاضر با استفاده از روش موردپژوهی، ضمن ارائه چهارچوب مفهومی «تحریم گرایی» برای تبیین جایگاه تحریم ها در سیاست خارجی آمریکا در دو مقطع زمانی تحریم گرایی محدود (1945 تا 1990) و تحریم گرایی گسترده (1990 به بعد)، به ارزیابی اثرگذاری این تحریم ها در دستیابی به اهداف سیاسی و همچنین چالش های پیشِ روی آن در سطوح تحلیل خرد و کلان پرداخته است. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که سیاست تحریم گرایی ایالات متحده از دهه 1990 تکاملی گسترده در زمینه های کمی، عمق، حوزه جغرافیایی، پیچیدگی، رژیم اجرا و لایه نظارت بر تحریم ها پیدا کرده است. گرچه تحریم های اقتصادی آمریکا اثرات اقتصادی را بر بازیگر تحریم شده تحمیل کرده، اما عموماً در دستیابی به اهداف سیاسی تعیین شده ناموفق عمل کرده اند. تحریم های آمریکا با چالش های مهمی در سطوح داخلی از جمله فرایند دشوار لغو تحریم ها به دلیل اینرسی بوروکراتیک آمریکا، پیچیدگی فزاینده قواعد تحریمی، انباشت درخواست های متعدد شرکت های خصوصی و افراد برای استعلام تراکنش ها، نبود نظام جامع برای ارزیابی اثرگذاری تحریم ها و در سطح خارجی نیز ایجاد ائتلاف های اقتصادی و سیاسی رقیب، گسترش شبکه های پنهان تجاری و مبادلاتی، هزینه های انسانی تحریم ها و به خطر افتادن جهان روایی دلار مواجه است.The System of Sanctionism and the Political Economy of Sanctions in U.S. Domestic and Foreign Policy: An Analysis of the Effectiveness and Challenges of U.S. Sanctionism
Introduction: Economic sanctions are deliberate actions designed to impose economic, trade, and political restrictions with the aim of exerting pressure, altering the behavior of other states, facilitating regime change, controlling armaments, or ending human rights violations. Sanctions have historically been among the most significant tools employed, particularly by superpowers, to pressure other nations and achieve their political objectives (Hufbauer et al., 2007). The implementation of economic sanctions represents a form of political intervention in normal economic relations, often occupying the middle ground between diplomacy and warfare. Historically, sanctions primarily manifested as economic blockades, such as the Continental System imposed by Napoleon I between 1806 and 1814, which sought to prevent European nations from trading with Britain. The framework of sanctions gained further sophistication with its inclusion in the Covenant of the League of Nations in 1919, marking its evolution as a more formalized international mechanism (Financial Crime Academy, 2024). After World War II, the economic sanctions regime underwent significant transformation, becoming enshrined in the United Nations Charter. During the Cold War, economic sanctions were not a pervasive policy tool and were applied only in select cases. However, the widespread use of sanctions emerged after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and particularly following the events of September 11, 2001. During this period, the United States, leveraging its position as the world’s largest economy and the dominance of the US dollar, became the foremost global enforcer of sanctions. Thus, economic, trade, and financial sanctions transitioned from being a rare occurrence during the Cold War to one of the primary instruments of US foreign policy.Research Question: Given the significance of sanctions, this study poses critical questions: What trajectory have US economic sanctions followed within the framework of domestic and foreign policy? Are US economic sanctions effective? What challenges confront the US sanctions regime at the domestic level and in the international order?Research Hypothesis: This research employs a case study approach, introducing the conceptual framework of "sanctionism" to explain the role of sanctions in US foreign policy across two periods: limited sanctionism (1945–1990) and expansive sanctionism (post-1990). It evaluates the effectiveness of these sanctions in achieving political objectives while addressing their challenges at both micro and macro levels. Since the 1990s, US sanctionism has undergone substantial evolution in terms of scope, depth, geographic reach, complexity, implementation regimes, and monitoring layers. While US sanctions have imposed significant economic impacts on targeted actors, they have generally failed to achieve their stated political objectives. Domestically, the US sanctions regime faces challenges such as the bureaucratic inertia complicating the process of lifting sanctions, the increasing complexity of sanctions regulations, the accumulation of numerous private sector requests for transactional clearances, and the absence of a comprehensive system for evaluating sanctions' effectiveness. Internationally, challenges include the emergence of rival economic and political coalitions, the proliferation of covert trade networks, the human costs of sanctions, and the risk to the global dominance of the US dollar.Results and discussion: International economic sanctions are multifaceted instruments of foreign policy that, despite their widespread application, remain subject to extensive debate and criticism. The United States is the dominant sanctioning power in the global economy, with a significant portion of international sanctions, including those imposed by the UN Security Council, initiated under US leadership. This article examines the US's use of sanctions during two periods: limited sanctionism (1945–1990) and expansive sanctionism (post-1990). During the Cold War, US sanctions were limited in scope, simple in design, and primarily applied on a case-by-case basis. Following the Soviet Union's collapse and the expansion of global economic interdependence, the United States increasingly utilized sanctions as a foreign policy tool, capitalizing on its central role in global economic, trade, financial, and banking institutions. Another factor driving this trend is the utility of sanctions in occupying the middle ground between negotiation and military conflict. These developments have positioned the US as the leading power in global economic sanctions over recent decades.Regarding their effectiveness, various economic and political theories assess the success or failure of sanctions based on factors such as economic dependency, achievement of the sanctioning state's political goals, behavioral changes in targeted actors, regime change, and related indicators. While acknowledging the economic damage inflicted on target states, most scholars have deemed sanctions to have limited success in achieving political objectives. A notable divide exists between policymakers, who often assert the effectiveness of sanctions in attaining political goals, and researchers, who tend to argue otherwise.Conclusion: In summary, while the US sanctions regime has evolved significantly in terms of scope, depth, and influence in the global political economy, it faces numerous domestic and international challenges that cast doubt on its future trajectory. At the micro level (US political and legal structures), sanctions have become a one-sided process: their imposition is relatively straightforward, but their revocation is mired in bureaucratic inertia, resulting in an accumulation of active sanctions cases with diverse regulations. This has created situations where the US Treasury is unable to manage thousands of requests from individuals and private companies seeking approval for financial transactions. At the macro level, theexpansive US sanctions regime faces global challenges, including the growth of black-market trade, the erosion of the US dollar's dominance, unintended humanitarian costs, and adverse side effects.Sanctions have become an integral part of both the domestic and foreign policy of the United States, leaving the country with only two options: either fundamentally reconsider and restructure its current sanctions framework, limiting their application to serious cases, or continue on the present path and witness the gradual demise of sanctions as a viable tool of its foreign policy.
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