سید حسین میرجلیلی

After matching a rich micro-level Iranian customs dataset with a macro-level cross-country database on Iranian diaspora stocks, we establish that diaspora matters for dynamics of Iranian exporters. We document the extent to which Iranian emigrants foster exports through both intensive and extensive margins at the micro-level. We show that destinations with more emigrants from Iran attract more Iranian exporters and allow them to survive longer and grow faster. One plausible explanation is that the diaspora channel reduces the fixed cost of exporting that Iranian exporters incur to enter a destination, those related to creating distribution channels, and those associated with learning about market demand. Our results add firm-level insight to the burgeoning literature on the channels through which emigration could impact economic integration. As Iran is now trying to integrate more with the global economy, these results suggest that Iranian embassies across the world have a role to play in bridging the gap between Iranian diaspora and exporters through trade promotion exhibitions and workshops to encourage greater trade between Iran and the rest of the world.

This paper examines potential output with alternative methods for the period 1978-2008 using annual data of the Iranian economy. We applied Hodrick - Prescott Filter, Production Function and SVAR methods for estimation of annually potential output. The results show that the turning points for these methods look similar and almost produce similar results for output gap. Also the estimated potential output and output gap are conformed to economic and political events as output gap has decreased in war period (1980-1989) because of war expenditures, reducing production and therefore decreasing GDP. Also Iranian economy has been faced with negative output gap and therefore a severe recession because of the crisis in South East Asia in late 1990s. Gap trend is uprising after 2005 for the reason that happening oil shock and economic advancement for increasing oil income.

In 2010, the World Bank categorized countries in per capita gross domestic product in terms of purchasing power parity (at constant 1990 prices) in three categories: low, middle (lower and upper) and high income. If a country caught at least 28 years in lower middle income level and at least 14 years caught in upper middle-income level, then they are trapped in lower middle and upper middle income traps respectively. The growth of per capita GDP or economic growth, is a factor in avoiding middle income trap. We examined the effect of total factor productivity, human capital and age dependency ratios on GDP per capita growth and the avoidance of middle income trap during 1991 - 2014 for ten Islamic countries, using panel data and constant effects estimation. The findings indicate that human capital and then total factor productivity have positive and significant relationship with per-capita GDP and have the greatest impact on economic growth and the avoidance from middle income trap. If the ratio of age dependency is high, it has a positive and significant effect on economic growth and can keep the country in the middle income trap.

Sanction is defined as the restrictions over economic activity imposed by one international actor. It is a foreign policy tool in the United States foreign policy. Three key terms discussed throughout the book are sanction, pain, and resolve of sanctioned country. In the nine chapters of the book, the author discussed the design, and implementation of economic sanctions. The main points raised in the review are: a one-sided account of the book. It is an account of the sanction sender’s perspective. The other side of sanctions is the humanitarian problem stemming from sanctions. Moreover, studies on the economic consequences of sanctions on Iran were briefly presented, which are ignored in analyzing the implementation of the sanctions. The literature includes reducing economic growth, increasing income inequality, intergenerational effects of sanctions, effect of sanctions on food security, and impact of sanctions on public health expenditures._x000D_ Sanction is defined as the restrictions over economic activity imposed by one international actor. It is a foreign policy tool in the United States foreign policy. Three key terms discussed throughout the book are sanction, pain, and resolve of sanctioned country. In the nine chapters of the book, the author discussed the design, and implementation of economic sanctions. The main points raised in the review are: a one-sided account of the book. It is an account of the sanction sender’s perspective. The other side of sanctions is the humanitarian problem stemming from sanctions. Moreover, studies on the economic consequences of sanctions on Iran were briefly presented, which are ignored in analyzing the implementation of the sanctions. The literature includes reducing economic growth, increasing income inequality, intergenerational effects of sanctions, effect of sanctions on food security, and impact of sanctions on public health expenditures.

Shadow banking is a term that came out of the financial crisis of 2007-2009. There is a belief that shadow banking was one of the crisis reasons. Because the excessive expansion of shadow banking endangers the financial stability of countries, this paper examines the impact of shadow banking on financial stability using data from 14 countries of the G20 during 2002-2018. We divided countries into four groups according to the level of shadow banking activity; then, we employed the quantile regression method. The results indicated that shadow banking hurts financial stability (positive impact on financial instability) in countries with a high shadow banking index (fourth group countries). One unit of increase in the shadow banking index increases financial instability in the fourth group countries (high shadow banking) by 1.6 units. But in countries where shadow banking is not very strong (other three groups), shadow banking does not significantly affect financial stability.

Islamic banks had demonstrated significant resilience during the global financial crisis, because of relying on real economic activities , avoiding toxic financial derivatives, and keeping higher liquid assets. However, they were vulnerable afterward in economic crisis. Canadian banks as an example of the most successful conventional banks during both the global financial and economic crisis, also had demonstrated significant resilience, because of institutional setting, prudential regulator, high capital-asset ratio, leverage cap, and conservative mortgage market. Islamic banks can learn from this experience and make a reform on liquidity management , corporate governance and consider the experience of resilient conventional banks.

Stock Exchange Investors have paid more attention to the banking group in recent years so that in many cases, the direction of the banking index has changed the general direction of the market. Therefore, exploring the banking index fluctuation is important from the point of view of investors as well as the direction of the market. The purpose is to examine the effectiveness and direction of news, as one of the most important factors in the formation of volatility, on the banking group index in Tehran Stock Exchange by using 1460 daily records during 2018-2019 and the GARCH family's method. The data were collected for four different newsgroups, including economic, political, psychological, and financial. After that, the news that had more relationship with the banking group was separated to underscore in the weighting stage and divided into the positive and negative news, according to the perspectives of capital market experts and economic elites. The results indicated that newsgroups have a significant effect on the group index, and only the negative political model on the banking group has an asymmetric effect. The results indicated that political and economic news has a positive and significant impact on banking index fluctuations.

Banks play an important role in the Iranian economy which has a bank-based financial system. We examined the impact of exchange rate volatility as a determinant of banks' performance. In recent years, the exchange rate has been volatile in the Iranian economy and have an adverse effect on banks' performance. This study, investigate the issue for the period 2007-2017 for 14 Iranian banks. Exchange rate fluctuations are derived by GARCH method and the effect of its fluctuations on bank performance examined using panel data method. In order to evaluate banks' performance, we used two criteria, namely liquidity and profitability. Estimation of econometric model using panel data by random effects indicated that exchange rate volatility has a negative and statistically significant effect on banks' capital return ratio. Exchange rate volatility is also a determinant in increasing the ratio of lending to total bank deposits, as it increases the financial gap and creates the credit risk that the gap entails. JEL: N10, G01, E44, C22.