بررسی زیان رفاهی تورم کالایی در برنامه های چهارم و پنجم توسعه برای استان های منتخب ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
در تمام برنامه های توسعه ی اقتصادی، تامین رفاه اقشار پایین درآمدی مورد تاکید قرار گرفته است و دولت از کل ابزار ها و امکانات در اختیار جهت تحقق این مهم استفاده نموده است. با این حال در تحقق رسالت خود موفق نبوده است. بر این اساس قانون هدفمندی یارانه ها در آذرماه 1389 به تصویب رسید. افزایش قیمت ها در نتیجه ی اجرایی شدن قانون مزبور امری بدیهی است اما همراهی نوسانات پی در پی نرخ ارز و تحریم های اقتصادی طی سال های بعد از هدفمندی یارانه ها مزید بر علت جهت افزایش نرخ تورم و کاهش رفاه خانوار ها می باشد. در مطالعه ی حاضر، زیان رفاهی تورم کالایی خانوار های شهری استان های غرب و شمال غرب کشور طی برنامه های چهارم و پنجم توسعه بررسی می شود. بنابراین، نخست، مقادیر مخارج فرا معیشتی، حداقل معاش و سپس خط فقر با تکیه بر مدل سیستم مخارج خطی و استفاده از روش رگرسیون های به ظاهر نامرتبط محاسبه شده اند. شاخص تغییرات جبرانی نیز به عنوان معیار زیان رفاهی محاسبه شده است. نتایج محاسبه ی خط فقر، بیانگر بالاتر بودن خط فقر کل استان ها در سال پایانی برنامه ی چهارم توسعه در مقایسه با نخستین سال شروع این برنامه است. به گونه ای که، استان های ایلام و زنجان به ترتیب بیشترین و کم ترین رشد خط فقر را داشته اند. در مقابل، آخرین سال برنامه ی پنجم توسعه، نشان دهنده ی کاهش فقر تمام استان ها نسبت به اولین سال برنامه ی مذکور است؛ بیشترین میزان کاهش برای استان ایلام بوده است. اما، خط فقر کاهش یافته ی استان ها در پایان برنامه ی پنجم، هم چنان نسبت به سال های قبل از اجرایی شدن برنامه ی هدفمندی به میزان قابل ملاحظه ای بالا می باشد. با توجه به متفاوت بودن ارزش هر واحد درآمد در استان های مختلف، شاخص متوسط تغییرات جبرانی نسبی در برنا مه های چهارم و پنجم توسعه به ترتیب نشان دهنده ی بیشترین مقدار کاهش رفاه برای مناطق شهری استان های همدان و کردستان می باشد. محاسبه ی تغییرات جبرانی با توجه به افزایش قیمت به تفکیک گروه های کالایی و با فرض ثبات قیمت سایر کالا ها، گویای بیشترین کاهش رفاه برای کالا های ضروری خوراکی ها، آشامیدنی و دخانیات، مسکن و سوخت و بهداشت و درمان برای مناطق شهری استان ایلام در برنامه ی چهارم و آذربایجان غربی در برنامه ی پنجم توسعه است و کم ترین زیان رفاهی را برای گروه های کالایی تفریح و تحصیل و لوازم و اثاثیه ی منزل برای کل استان ها به ترتیب در برنامه های چهارم و پنجم توسعه نشان می دهد. جهت کنترل زیان رفاهی خانوار ها در برنامه های توسعه ی آتی، مدیریت مطلوب اقدامات تورم زا و فراهم نمودن تمهیداتی برای تعدیل قدرت خرید در مقابل بروز هر گونه تورم احتمالی توصیه می گردد.Investigating the welfare losses of commodity inflation in the fourth and fifth development plans for selected provinces of Iran
Extended Abstract
Introduction:
Improving the welfare of citizens is important for governments that are attributed to the welfare state. The Islamic Republic of Iran is no exception to this rule. The first and second paragraphs of Article 43, the twelfth paragraph of Article 3, and Articles 29-31 of the Constitution and all economic development programs fully reflect of this claim. Thus, in order to achieve this, a high percentage of the country’s total revenue sources have been allocated to subsidies for basic goods for many years. However, the inappropriate implementation of support policies has acted in violation of its purpose, i.e. empowerment of the low-income groups. Achieving unexpected results from the implementation of support policies made the country’s officials to decide to pass a law on targeted subsidies. Research conducted on consequences of the implementation of the law on targeted subsidies shows the welfare costs resulting from rising prices, weakening of national production and the spread of unemployment in society. In addition, successive shocks resulting from exchange rate, financial and trade sanctions, and rising liquidity in the years following the implementation of the law on targeted subsidies have prompted researchers to examine the welfare losses incurred by the various income deciles, evaluate the results for proper planning and provide timely information to the country’s officials and planners. Much research has been conducted in this field so far, but there have been few studies that show the difference in the cost of living in different parts of Iran, as influenced by cultural, economic and geographical factors. In addition, the success of economic development programs in providing welfare to the low-income groups has not been studied yet. Failure of planners to attend to the welfare status of citizens by geographical areas of the country will lead to the failure of welfare programs despite spending time and exorbitant costs. The present study examines the welfare losses of commodity inflation for urban households in the western and northwestern provinces of Iran in the fourth and fifth development plans to take a step to address this shortcoming.
Methodology:
In the present study, the data on price, total household expenditures and expenditures spent on the following 7 commodity groups are used: food, beverages and tobacco, housing and fuel, clothing and footwear, transportation and communications, miscellaneous goods and services, home appliances and furniture, entertainment and cultural affairs and education. These data have been extracted from the statistics on expenses and income of urban households during 2004-2015 in the Statistics Center of Iran and the price index chapter of statistical yearbooks of the whole country. The collected data are based on the linear expenditure system/model using the seemingly unrelated regression method. In this model, which consists of several equations, despite the distinction between independent and dependent variables of these equations, using the same data in them violates one of the classical assumptions (zero covariance of random error sentences) and leads to uncertainty in the estimators’ results. In order to solve this problem, sur method is a suitable method for estimating the system of equations.
Findings:
Findings from poverty line calculations in the first year of the Fourth Development Plan show the highest and lowest monthly poverty lines for the provinces of Kurdistan and East Azerbaijan, respectively. At the end of the plan, this situation was for Lorestan and Zanjan provinces, respectively. At the end of the Fifth Development Plan, urban households in East Azerbaijan faced the highest cost to meet essential needs, while Ilam province was in the opposite point. At the beginning of the Fifth Development Plan, however, the situation for the two provinces was quite the opposite. The ranking study shows that the compensatory changes of a few percent of the income of urban households in different provinces on average in development programs indicate the first ranks in both development programs for Kurdistan province compared to other provinces. The increase in the prices of three commodity groups of food, beverages and tobacco, housing and fuel, and health and treatment has had the greatest welfare losses in the fourth and fifth development plans for the urban areas of Ilam and West Azerbaijan provinces, respectively.
Results:
In the present study, the highest welfare losses were due to rising prices of food, beverages and tobacco, housing and fuel, and health and treatment, and the result was contrary to the goals pursued in the Constitution and, in parallel, economic development plans. Thus, it is necessary to reduce the cost of food production by using new technologies with less energy consumption, which are the main input of agricultural production, but, in contrast, have faced a large increase in price after the targeted subsidies. In addition, officials need to be more sensitive to the consequences of policies that increase housing prices. On the other hand, allocating a larger share of government resources to free education and health services with a proper distribution throughout the country will promote human capital and, consequently, improve the welfare of households.
تبلیغات
