درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

The real macroeconomic instability and frequent changes in the monetary and banking regulations with financial contagion to the banks’ financial statements in the banking network of Iran cause intensified instabilities in its financial behaviors. In this paper, using statistical analysis and three-dimensional charts, we have analyzed the behavior of the financial statements of consolidated balance sheets covering the banking network of Iran. The paper also uses a non-linear estimation to calculate the threshold value regarding financial statements such as the nonperforming loan ratio. Results indicate that the banking network financial statements must be restructured due to exogenous shocks. Also, in the recession periods of the year 2011 fourth period and 2012 first period, the recession has reached the banking network with lag and banks have been able to change the return on assets ratio regimes neither in the year 2011 nor in the beginning months of the year 2012. Furthermore, the banks have started a contracting policy in providing loans. As time passes, yields and the performing loans depict the fact that yields on assets as profit indicators are increased unless the interest earning and different periods of time changes are also augmented. Going beyond the critical threshold, generating loans will be likely to drive non-performing loans since these loans are not going to be reimbursed. Banks will have to extend their loans to new loan contracts to consider them as performing which will lead to identification of fake profits in their statements. Key words: Financial Statement restructuring, Nonlinear Estimation, Threshold value JEL Classification: E21, G21, L2

The aim of this study is to examine the nonlinear effects of fiscal and monetary policies on inflation during 1990:3 to 2013:1 based on threshold model. First lag of the liquidity growth is recognized as threshold variable with threshold value estimated at 6.37 percent. In low liquidity growth, the results indicate that inflation expectations and the lagged liquidity growth are the most important determinants of inflation. In high liquidity growth, effects of the variables including liquidity, development and con-current expenditure, exchange rate, budget deficit and inflationary expectations are much stronger than low one. GDP and its lag in both regimes are anti-inflationary as expected. Oil revenues have no inflationary effects in both regimes, so it seems that the effect of oil shocks on inflation is captured by other variables such as exchange rate and money growth. Based on results, it seems that liquidity growth can be considered as the most important factor for regime change in the relationship between inflation and fiscal and monetary policies in the economy. So if economy benefits from the low liquidity regime, it can prevent the inflationary effects of variables like government expenditure or exchange rate and use the opportunity to control inflation expectations. It is recommendable, in low liquidity regime to use fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies to stimulate production and real sector with low inflationary effects. Keywords: Inflation, Inflationary Regimes, Threshold Model, Nonlinear Model JEL Classification: E31, H5, C01