درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

In recent decades, many countries have improved systematic control over monetary policy and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. There is a great literature on how to conduct a monetary policy. A lot of macroeconomists (for example Taylor, McCallum, Woodford and others) proposed specific monetary policy strategies, regimes and rules. This paper considers a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE), and two basic factors have been applied. The first one is a belief that monetary policy has impact on real economic activity in the short run. This effect comes from the presence of rigidities, which give rise to non-neutral effects of a monetary policy. The second factor is a considerable improvement under theoretical frameworks used for monetary policy analysis. The research also presents a sensitivity analysis of the optimal rules to deep structural parameters and investigate properties of an optimal simple rule with respect to prevailing type of shocks. Finally, the study highlights how an optimal policy rule depends on model structure, on the model calibration and nominal rigidities. According to the research findings, based on the theoretical expectations, the effect of a positive shock inflicted on the government investment leads to increase and gradual accumulation of fixed capital formation in the public sector. Among estimated parameters consumption is first affected and reduces, then employment increases consequently, finally production will also be affected. Also with the shock of oil revenues, increased oil revenues results in public investment at first, because the increase in oil revenues, the government increases development expenditure. Though increase in development expenditure is more than Increase in current expenditure. Enhancing development expenditure & construction spending causes total spending increase and as a result of increased production of oil income, consumption and total investment will rise. This increase leads to inflation too. Though by increasing the inflation resulted from oil revenues, the monetary authority will react through reducing the growth rate of the monetary base.

Eliminating poverty and reducing income inequality is the most difficult task of economic policy making when considered with an economic growth. Therefore, the impacts of economic growth and development on income distribution largely depend on the growth model. Thus, determining an effect of economic growth on poverty is uncertain and relies on its country's growth pattern. The basic question of this paper which we are looking for is that have economic growth and income distribution had an impact on the poverty in Iran? To respond the question, we employed fuzzy regression for analyzing the variables relationship. The article also under the fuzzy logic presents an analytical framework at the aim of appraising the relationship between poverty, income distribution and economic growth. The results show that there is a positive relationship between the economic growth and poverty, in other words the economic growth has had negative impacts on the poverty reduction in Iran. Computational results based on fuzzy logic in Iran implies that the most ideal conditions come when the economic growth is 8 percent on overage and Gini coefficient is nearly 38.5 percent.

This paper investigates the responses of Iran’s macroeconomic variables to the oil embargo against Iran. The article applies a Bayesian time-varying parameter SVAR model along the quarterly data of oil export, real exchange rate, inflation, real GDP and money supply of Iran over the period of 1991:Q2-2020:Q2. Applying time varying parameters in this study helps us to consider the economic structural changes and transition mechanism in analyzing the response of macroeconomic variables to oil embargo. The oil embargo against Iran has been intensified since 2012. To consider the effect of the oil embargo on Iranian macro variables, the model has been estimated in two different periods of time, before and after 2012. The results indicate that the escalation of the oil embargo from 2012 has caused a stagflation period and ends in a decline in real GDP and national currency depreciation. In addition, it has intensified money supply and triggers existing inflation. These results have some policy implications to overcome difficulties raises when the economy faces sanction.