درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

In this paper, we use a multi-sector specific factors model with international capital mobility to examine the effects of globalization on the skill premium in U.S. manufacturing industries. This model allows us to identify two channels through which globalization affects relative wages: effects of international capital flows transmitted through changes in interest rates, and effects of international trade in goods and services transmitted through changes in product prices. In addition, we identify two domestic forces which affect relative wages: variations in labor endowment and technological change. Our results reveal that changes in labor endowments had a negative effect on the skill premium, while the effect of technological progress was mixed. The main factors behind the rise in the skill premium were product price changes (for the full sample period) and international capital flows (during 1982-05).   JEL Classification: F16, J31.

Does financial sector develop in line with its nature? Does part of financial development, which is in line with its nature, approve mainstream opinion in regard to finance-growth relationship? By considering financialization phenomenon within an ARDL-Bounds testing approach, this study re-examined the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in the USA during the period 1961–2012. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), indicators of financial sector development (FD) and financialization (FIN) were created. After that, Granger causality test was applied using the ARDL-ECM methodology. According to the results: 1) a bilateral relationship between financial development and economic growth was observed; while financial development had negative and significant impact on economic growth, the influence of economic growth on financial development was not significant although it was positive; 2) financialization significantly affected financial development through efficiency channel. Obtained results can be used by policy makers in different countries, although the study is applied for the USA.

Considering the fact that the main income source of the oil producing countries such as members of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Iran is earned by exporting oil, it is expected that an increase in oil price creates economic convergence. Nevertheless, by considering the low level of intra-regional trade and dissimilarity of their trade cycles, many experts point out the lack of economic convergences in these countries. Hence, the hypothesis considered in this research is that an increase in oil price would not have convergence in per capita income and will not lead to a steady state path. In order to test this hypothesis, we applied Solow-Swan model by using panel data method. The results showed that absolute and conditional convergences have been rejected although the effect of oil price increase on the economic growth is confirmed during the investigated period (1998-2008).  JEL Classification: F43, O47.

Utilizing finance conceptual framework, this paper applies a Frontier-Volatility analysis to illuminate regulatory policies effects on volatility under Iranian Banking Prudential Framework over the period 2003 to 2015 using the raw database collected, classified and compiled by the Rahavard Novin Co. version 3, Securities and Stock Exchange Organization. Findings portray that volatility is affected by the regulatory policies. Tighter regulatory controls will lead to higher volatility that makes it tough for the central bank to regulate the system for culminating financial stability as well as difficulty of entry for the investors. Regulatory policies’ positive variations will also lead to lower share revenues as well as a decrease in the earning per share (EPS) that will make it volatile and also will heighten the liquidity risk causing volatility as well as lower investment and shared revenues fluctuate the performance. Furthermore, economic growth has been ineffective on volatility in the current period although its effect has been positive and significant in the first lag period. Higher assets circulations cause higher and significant volatility. The debt proportion coefficient is positive and significant as expected that financial institutions gain more through higher leverage leading to higher volatilities in earnings. JEL Classification: C51, C58, G58, F82, G21

Accurate Measuring of poverty and its distribution in various areas, in addition to being crucial for cognitive purposes, could have different policy implications and affect policy assessments. The Household expenditures criteria is typically used to measure poverty, and poverty is often assessed using a poverty line and alternative indices. A major difficulty associated with this method is, however, that it fails to take the purchasing power of money in different areas into account. In fact, households with the same amount of expenditures living in areas with higher price levels enjoy lower levels of welfare in comparison with those living in areas with lower price levels. Since the consumer price index cannot reflect the difference between price levels in different areas, this index is not useful for evaluating differences in purchasing power. In this paper, we shall first present an index which reflects price levels in the Iranian year ending in March 2012, and then we shall test the equality of poverty measures hypothesis before and after adjusting expenditures with the proposed price level index using statistical tests and the dominance approach. According to the results, and regardless of the defined poverty line, adjusting expenditures based on all poverty measures characterized by a week monotonicity, will reduce the calculated poverty measures. Furthermore, after adjustment, the ranking of provinces with respect to poverty will drastically change. This could change the share of each province in reducing poverty budgets. JEL Classification: C40, E31, I32

Understanding the dynamics of productivity shocks is instrumental if we are to identify the sources of economic growth. This paper, investigates dynamic effects of positives productivity shocks to agricultural subsectors during the period from 1991-2015, by disaggregating agricultural sector in Iran into four key subsectors (crops, livestock, fishing and forestry) through an estimated DSGE model. Our Bayesian estimation results suggest that positive productivity shocks lead to an increase in output, consumption, capital, employment and real wages and a fall in marginal costs and price indexes in all four subsectors. Comparing the results across the subsectors shows that following the shocks, generally, crops and livestock have the strongest reactions and forestry has the weakest ones. Additionally, among the variables, output indicates the highest responses to the shocks. Variance decomposition analysis reveals that agricultural fluctuations are mainly explained by productivity, monetary, preference and government spending shocks.

This paper examines downward price rigidity in Iranian house market and discusses whether this characteristic would result in an asymmetric relationship between house price and monetary policy. To test the downward house price rigidity the threshold GARCH model is employed. The asymmetric adjustment to monetary policy is examined using the asymmetric cointegration and error correction models. The results indicate the presence of the downward house price rigidity in Iranian house market. Moreover, house price are asymmetrically adjusted to monetary policy such that it is increased to reflect a loose monetary policy whereas displayed a large amount of persistency following a tight monetary policy. The results imply that house price tend to overreact in upturns and underreact in downturns reaffirming the downward house price rigidity in Iran. Hence, the government should consider the asymmetric house price adjustment when implementing relevant policies for the house market to avoid the creation of a bubble or the collapse of the house market.