درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

Improving return forecasting is very important for both investors and researchers in financial markets. In this study we try to aim this object by two new methods. First, instead of using traditional variable, gold prices have been used as predictor and compare the results with Goyal's variables. Second, unlike previous researches new machine learning algorithm called Deep learning (DP) has been used to improve return forecasting and then compare the results with historical average methods as bench mark model and use Diebold and Mariano’s and West’s statistic (DMW) for statistical evaluation. Results indicate that the applied DP model has higher accuracy compared to historical average model. It also indicates that out of sample prediction improvement does not always depend on high input variables numbers. On the other hand when using gold price as input variables, it is possible to improve this forecasting capability. Result also indicate that gold price has better accuracy than Goyal's variable to predicting out of sample return.

Behavioral financial knowledge deals with the behavior of investors and other users in the capital market. According to the financial knowledge, it is no longer expected that only factors such as accounting information and macroeconomic variables will affect decision-making but also a variety of behavioral variables including manager’s optimism, information influence management, patience of major shareholders and other investors' biases can have an impact on the prices and stock returns. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of managers' optimism on the relationship between the patience of major shareholder and information influence management. This study attempts to investigate the relationship between these behaviors and information influence management by measuring the degree of major shareholders patience and managers’ optimism. This is a descriptive post-event research. The study population consisted of the companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (n = 87) between the years 2008 and 2017. Multivariate regression was used to test the hypotheses. The findings showed no significant relationship between the major shareholders patience and the information influence management (high, low, balanced). Further, it was found that managers’ optimism has a significant effect on the relationship between the major shareholders' patience and the information influence management (balanced level) and no significant relationship was observed between two other levels.