مرتضی شکری

Currently, the global community is on the threshold of a transition from fossil fuels as a result of transformations such as climate change, entailing the strict implementation of carbon setoff policies and quick progress in green technologies. A transition to clean, low-carbon energies will not only disrupt the global energy system, it will also impact the global economy and political dynamism within and without all states. Based on these transformations, the present article asks the question of how the energy transition will impact the geopolitical future of the global oil economy. The authors hypothesize the following in answer to this question: Given the superior, more advanced position of economic powers such as China and the US in clean energy technologies, we are likely to witness the weakening of traditional oil powers in a post-carbon world, such as the Middle East and North African countries (MENA) and Russia; in contrast, the balance of power will tilt heavily towards current energy consumers. Technology-savvy countries have the knowledge to reproduce and stabilize their power in the global economy. The traditional countries of the energy sector, however, face shortfalls in their infrastructure and modern technologies and will lose their geopolitical position to a large extent.

Economic sanctions imposed on Heterogeneousstates have played an important role as a tool of pressure in recent decades. Considering that most non-conforming states with the US are important players on the energy market, a large part of this country’s sanctions policy has been focused on the energy sector. With the evolution of the US shale oil industry, using energy as a tool of sanctions against target countries has received increasing attention by US presidents in recent years. The US is using the geopolitical shift as an international strategy to compete with other powers in the energy sector such as Iran, Venezuela, and Russia. The US aims to use its energy embargo policy to curtail the influence of these players on the energy market and prevent their anti-American policies by fermenting economic crises within these countries. The question arises as to the extent of the effectiveness and sustainability of this US foreign policy strategy in a transitional international order. The article hypothesis is that due to inefficient unconventional resources in terms of market crisis, the rise of counter-hegemonic coalitions, and geopolitical tensions in regions such as the Middle East, one cannot be too optimistic about the sustainability of this situation. The authors of the article will endeavor to explain the above hypothesis within the framework of the hegemony theory and by using the trend-analysis technique, while addressing the driving forces.