آثار به کارگیری سیاست تسهیل اعتبار برای تسویه بدهی دولت با پیمانکاران در چارچوب مدل های تطبیق روانه انباره (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
بدهی دولت به پیمانکاران یکی از چالش های جدی نظام اقتصادی کشور است که تبعات مخربی برای نظام پولی و بانکی کشور از جمله افزایش هزینه های جذب سپرده برای بانک ها، افزایش نرخ سود تسهیلات، خلق نقدینگی بی کیفیت وکاهش توان بانک ها برای اعطای تسهیلات را به دنبال داشته است. از میان راهکارهای گوناگون پیشنهاد شده برای این معضل، برخی با تأکید بر درون زایی پول راهکاری مبتنی بر تسهیل اعتبار پیشنهاد می دهند که در آن بدهی دولت به پیمانکاران با ایجاد تغییر در ترکیب دارایی های بانک مرکزی تسویه می شود. بااین حال ازآنجاکه اجرای این سیاست به استفاده از منابع بانک مرکزی متکی است، بیم افزایش سرسام آور نقدینگی و ایجاد اثرات نامطلوب بر دیگر متغیرهای اقتصادی مانند تورم، اجرای آن را با تردید مواجه می سازد. در این پژوهش ضمن بیان مبانی و الزامات اجرای سیاست تسهیل اعتبار در ایران، از مدل تطبیق روانه انباره به منظور ارزیابی اثرات اجرای این سیاست استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد تسویه بدهی دولت با پیمانکاران با استفاده از منابع بانک مرکزی افزایش پایه پولی، نقدینگی و تولید ناخالص داخلی حقیقی را به دنبال داشته و به کاهش تورم و نرخ بهره نسبت به سناریوی پایه منجر می شود.Implementation of Credit Easing Policy to Settle the Government Debt to Contractors: A Stock-Flow Consistent Approach
Iran’s economy has encountered significant challenges in recent years, with the government debt to contractors emerging as one of the most urgent issues. This situation has negatively impacted Iran’s monetary and banking system, leading to several adverse consequences such as increased funding costs for banks, higher loan interest rates, excessive money supply, and a reduced capacity for banks to provide loans. A proposed solution is based on credit easing and endogenous money, which involves settling the government debt to contractors by making adjustments on the asset side of the Central Bank’s balance sheet. However, the practical implementation of this policy depends on the use of Central Bank resources, which raises concerns about a sudden increase in the money supply and potential negative effects on other economic variables, especially inflation. This uncertainty has led to doubts about the feasibility of such a strategy. The present research aimed to examine the fundamental principles and prerequisites for adopting a credit easing policy in Iran. The study also used stock-flow consistent models to evaluate the potential outcomes of implementation of the policy. The findings indicate that settling the government debt to banks by using the Central Bank resources results in an expansion of the monetary base and money supply, an increase in real GDP, and a reduction in both inflation and interest rates compared to the baseline scenario.1.IntroductionIran’s economy has been facing various problems in recent years. One significant issue is the government debt to contractors, which has adversely affected Iran’s economy, particularly the monetary and banking system. The government’s failure to settle its debts with contractors results in contractors being unable to repay loans taken from banks, leading to an increase in the banks’ non-performing loans. This predicament has precipitated several adverse consequences, including higher funding costs for banks, increased interest rates on loans, an uncontrolled surge in the money supply, and a diminished capacity for banks to provide loans. To address this challenge, some economists, emphasizing endogenous money, look to the quantitative policies applied by central banks in advanced countries like Japan and the United States. They have proposed a solution grounded in credit easing, which involves settling the government debt to contractors by making adjustments on the asset side of the Central Bank’s balance sheet.2.Materials and MethodsIn this method, the government issues bonds to settle its debt with contractors and provides these bonds to the contractors. The Central Bank then purchases these bonds by increasing the bank’s reserves. Since the Central Bank does not directly transact with individuals, it uses commercial banks as intermediaries to facilitate the payments. Consequently, the money supply and the monetary base increase immediately. However, if the contractors owe money to the banks, according to the law of reflux, the newly created money will quickly disappear. This method is largely similar to the second type of treasury bonds used by the Iranian government in recent years. Implementing this policy can reduce non-performing loans, curb the growth of the money supply, and prevent the recognition of illusory profits. It can also lower the level of overdue loans and improve banks’ balance sheets. Additionally, it can reduce the banks’ debt to the Central Bank, thereby lowering the cost of money and reducing loan interest rates. Moreover, the reduction in interest rates can lead to increased loan demand and, consequently, future growth in the money supply.It should be noted that this policy leads to a change in the composition of the Central Bank’s assets, but it does not necessarily result in the growth of monetary base and money supply. However, since the policy relies on the use of Central Bank resources, concerns about a sharp increase in the money supply and potential adverse effects on macroeconomic variables, such as inflation, have always hindered its adoption. The present study used Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) models to evaluate the effects of these policies on Iran’s macroeconomy. Having gained prominence since the 2007–2008 financial crisis, SFC models aim to integrate the real and financial sectors of the economy within a single framework. They help predict endogenous crises in the economy and enable modeling of the economy based on endogenous money. Therefore, SFC models were used to determine the effects of policies similar to credit easing to settle the government debt with contractors. The focus is on various economic variables, including the monetary base, money supply, and banks’ balance sheets in the monetary sector, as well as real GDP, economic growth, real consumption, inflation, and interest rates in the real sector of the economy.3.Results and DiscussionThe results indicate that settling the government debt to banks by using the Central Bank resources leads to an expansion in the monetary base and money supply, as well as an increase in real GDP and real consumption compared to the baseline scenario. However, the effect of this policy on economic growth completely dissipates after eight periods following its implementation, with the growth rate difference eventually tending towards zero. The graph below illustrates the difference in economic growth between the baseline scenario and the scenario where the government debt to contractors is settled using the Central Bank resources. Figure 1. Difference in Economic Growth: The Baseline Scenario and the Government Debt Settlement Scenario Source: The research analysisAccording to the model’s results, implementing this policy leads to a long-term decrease in inflation by 0.23 percentage points.Figure 2. Difference in Inflation: The Baseline Scenario and the Government Debt Settlement Scenario Source: The research estimationsAdditionally, the results indicate that the policy can lead to a 0.53 percentage point decrease in the interest rate. Figure 3. Difference in the Interest Rate: The Baseline Scenario and the Government Debt Settlement Scenario Source: The research estimations4.ConclusionThe model’s results indicated that the policy, despite increasing the money supply compared to the base scenario, leads to improved economic growth, reduced inflation and interest rates, enhanced bank balance sheets, and increased household welfare (via higher real consumption) compared to the baseline scenario.However, the method is recommended only to address the current problem in the present situation. The research results showed that the proposed policies guide the economy onto a better path than its current trajectory, but they are not a prescription for the government’s indiscriminate use of the monetary base. To improve conditions in the long term, the government needs a program to control its budget deficit and stop borrowing from banks and the Central Bank. According to the findings, borrowing from the Central Bank to settle outstanding debts with contractors is preferable to leaving these debts unpaid. However, the optimal approach is for the government to avoid needing to borrow from the Central Bank altogether.
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