تأثیر الگوهای پرداخت سود سهام و نسبت قیمت به سود بر ارزش بازار سهام شرکت های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
قیمت سهام یکی از مهم ترین عواملی است که سرمایه گذاران را به خرید یا فروش سهام ترغیب می کند بااین حال زمینه وجود چالش در تبیین رفتار قیمت سهام به دلیل تأثیرگذاری عوامل متعدد داخلی و خارجی، مسئله ناگزیر هر بازار سرمایه ای است. ازجمله مهم ترین ابزارهای تحلیل بنیادی در بحث قیمت گذاری، سود سهام و نسبت قیمت به سود است که این پژوهش، نقش اطلاعاتی آن ها را در قالب الگوهای پرداخت سود سهام و ضریب قیمت به سود تأخیری ارزیابی می کند. برای این منظور، اطلاعات مربوط به ۱۱۳ شرکت سودآور در بورس تهران در طی یک دوره هشت ساله (1393-1400) جمع آوری شده است. در این پژوهش، از یک مدل رگرسیون خطی چندگانه (داده های پنل با اثرات ثابت) استفاده شده و سه متغیر اندازه، رشد و سطح بدهی مالی نیز کنترل شده اند. نتایج نشان می دهند که سود نقدی، به ویژه سود دوگانه با اکثریت نقد، تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر قیمت سهام پایان دوره دارد. بااین حال، سهام جایزه، به تنهایی یا در ترکیب غالب با سود نقدی تحت عنوان سود دوگانه با گرایش جایزه، تأثیر معناداری بر قیمت سهام انتهای دوره ندارند. علاوه بر این، افزایش نسبت قیمت به سود تأخیری با افزایش قیمت سهام در دوره جاری همراه است. این یافته ها حاکی از قوی تر بودن نقش اطلاعاتی سود نقدی نسبت به سهام جایزه است، به حدی که حتی در مورد سود دوگانه، واکنش قوی تری به گرایش نقد مشاهده می شود. علاوه بر این، این پژوهش محتوای اطلاعاتی نسبت قیمت به سود را تأیید کرده و شواهدی درباره قدرت پیش بینی آن برای تغییرات قیمت سهام یک دوره بعد ارائه می کند. به طورکلی، این مطالعه به درک رفتار قیمت سهام در بورس تهران کمک می کند و اهمیت در نظر گرفتن الگوهای پرداخت سود سهام و نسبت قیمت به سود را در تصمیم گیری سرمایه گذاری به وضوح بیان می کند.The Impact of Dividend Payment Patterns and Price-to-Earnings Ratio on the Market Value of Companies Listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange
The stock price is one of the most important factors that motivates investors to buy or sell stocks. However, the presence of challenges in explaining stock price behavior due to the influence of various internal and external factors is an inevitable issue in any capital market. Among the most important fundamental analysis tools in pricing discussions are dividends and the price-to-earnings ratio. This study evaluates their informational role in the form of dividend payout patterns and lagged price-to-earnings ratio. Data from 113 profitable companies listed on the exchange over eight-years (2014-2021) were collected. In this study, a multiple linear regression model (with fixed effects panel data) was used and three variables of size, growth, and financial leverage were also controlled. The findings indicate that cash dividends, particularly dual dividends with a majority cash component, have a significant positive impact on the end-of-period stock price. However, bonus shares, whether individually or combined with cash dividends as dual dividends with a majority bonus component, do not significantly influence the end-of-period stock price. Furthermore, an increase in the lagged price-to-earnings ratio corresponds to a significant rise in the current period's stock price. These results highlight the stronger informative role of cash dividends compared to bonus shares, even in the case of dual dividends where a stronger price reaction to the cash majority is observed. Additionally, the study confirms the informational content of the price-to-earnings ratio and provides evidence for its predictive power in forecasting changes in stock price in subsequent periods. Overall, this research contributes to the understanding of stock price behavior in the Tehran Stock Exchange and highlights the importance of considering dividend payout patterns and the price-to-earnings ratio in investment decision-making.
Introduction
In response to news about profitability and dividends, the stock price may rise owing to future optimism or fall due to market perception. Corporate news serves as an information source for investors and guides them in their investment decisions. This article looked into the role of dividends and the price-to-earnings ratio in providing information. There is no agreement across countries on the impact of these two factors on stock prices, and new issues must be explored and researched. What sets this study apart from other similar studies in this field is the role of dual dividends in dividend distribution methods, which is discussed for the first time as a combination of cash dividends and bonus shares in domestic research and could be of interest to researchers and scholars for filling the existing gap in the impact of combined dividends. The primary goal of this study was to find a suitable answer to the question of what effect payment patterns of cash dividends, bonus shares, dual dividends, and the previous period's P/E ratio to the average of similar companies have on the stock price of the listed company at the end of the period.
Dividends are one of the most efficient methods for management to provide information to the market about the company's ability to achieve future profits and improve performance, which aids investors in accurately determining the true worth of a share. According to Huang et al. (2009), one of the basic features of dual dividends is that both its components, i.e., cash dividends and bonus shares, send separate signals of future profitability to the market. But when both forms are combined, the company's future profitability is conveyed with a stronger signal. The P/E ratio is one of many ratios used in relative valuation. The price-to-earnings ratio shows the relationship between stock price and earnings per share (EPS) and reflects the market's expectations of the stock's profitability and prospects (Sarwar, 2013). The stock price behavior highlights the importance of the price-earnings ratio as a valuation multiple. In this research, the high and low ratio compared to the average of similar companies in each industry was used as an evaluation criterion to provide a more comprehensive perspective for understanding the information content of P/E in the analysis of stock price behavior.
The research hypotheses were set and tested as follows:
H1: Paying cash dividends during the period has a positive and significant effect on the stock price at the end of the period.
H2: Issuing bonus shares during the period has a positive and significant effect on the stock price at the end of the period.
H3: Paying dual interest during the period has a positive and significant effect on the stock price at the end of the period.
H4: The effect of dual dividends on stock price is different in the trend of cash dividends than the trend of bonus shares.
H5: The comparative and delayed P/E ratio from the previous period has a positive and significant effect on the final prices.
Methods &Material
The statistical sample for this study consisted of 113 profitable enterprises. The study used a multiple linear regression technique based on combined data with a generalized least squares approach and a fixed effects model to estimate the model and test the research hypotheses. Following the research of Ifeanyichukwu and Yusuf (2021) and Liu and Chi (2014), research models were developed based on equations (1) and (2):
(1)
(2)
Where:
Mps= The share's market price at the end of the fiscal period.
Cash_div= Cash dividend paid during the period after subtracting 10% of the last period's Eps.
Stock_div= The capital increase amount from the accumulated profit and reserves divided by the number of ordinary shares at the time of the capital increase extraordinary general meeting.
Dual_div= The sum of cash dividends and bonus shares paid per share during a period.
Dual_div cash/stock_inclined= Dual dividend is a non-cash trend until the ratio of cash profit to dual dividends is equal to or greater than 0.5.
Per_compared= Price earnings ratio delayed and compared to the average of its industry peers
Size= The natural logarithm of the company's total assets.
Growth= The difference in sales between the current and prior periods divided by the previous period's sales.
Lev= Total liabilities divided by total assets of the company.
Findings
Table 1: Regression Results
Model B
Model A
Variable
probability
t-value
Coefficient
probability
t-value
Coefficient
0.000
3.735
3.678
0.000
13.460
3.939
Constant
0.000
6.647
0.115
0.000
6.585
0.101
Cash_div
0.354
-0.928
-0.032
0.448
-0.759
-0.028
Stock_div
-
-
-
0.005
2.821
0.047
Dual_div
0.001
3.271
0.068
-
-
-
Dual_div-cash_inclined
0.069
1.815
0.033
-
-
-
Dual_div-stock_inclined
0.000
5.077
0.006
0.000
4.918
0.006
Per_compared (t-1)
0.000
5.219
0.632
0.000
5.684
0.607
Size
0.001
3.437
0.205
0.000
3.678
0.197
Growth
0.000
-7.956
-1.109
0.000
-6.454
-1.099
Lev
487.486
492.231
Sum squared resid
25.241 (0.000)
27.926 (0.000)
F-statistic (prob)
0.569
0.565
R-squared
0.763
0.780
Adjusted R-squared
1.549
1.532
Durbin-Watson stat
Source: Research findings
Conclusion & Results
The result of H1 supports the signaling hypothesis or informational content of stock dividends and the bird theory, which is consistent with the research of Qolipour (1996), Kathirlu (2021), Ifeanyichukwu and Yusuf (2021), Joshi (2012), Liu and Chi (2014), and Sharma (2011). However, it is not consistent with the findings of Saeedi et al. (2017), Akbar and Baig (2010), Kibet et al. (2016) and Mirfakhr-Al-Dini et al. (2011) do not match.
The result of H2 is compatible with the view that bonus shares are only a type of classification change and practically have no value for the shareholder. This result is consistent with the findings of Saeedi et al. (2017), Ifeanyichukwu and Yusuf (2021) and Kibet et al. (2016). On the other hand, this is in contrast with the findings of Jahankhani and Abasi (1991), Qolipour (1996), Akbar and Baig (2010). And Liu and Chi (2014) conflict.
According to the result of H3, strong evidence from the Tehran stock market is provided to support the combination of the two hypotheses of free cash flow and retained earnings or the balanced dividend distribution hypothesis, which is in line with the findings of Liu and Chi (2014) and contrasts with the findings of Akbar and Baig (2010), suggests that the distribution of bonus shares alone does not have an impact on stock prices. However, when combined with cash dividends, it has a positive effect on stock prices.
The results obtained from comparing the cash and non-cash orientations in H4 reaffirm the lack of impact of bonus shares on the end-of-period stock prices, as only in the cash orientation, dual dividends lead to an increase in stock prices and in the bonus orientation, no significant effect on stock prices is observed. This finding is somewhat in contrast with the findings of Huang et al. (2009), who identified balanced dual dividends and dual dividends with non-cash orientation as the factors influencing the growth of future earnings.
According to the result of H5, the P/E ratio from the previous period can explain the prices at the end of the period and provide evidence of the signaling effect and the information content of the P/E ratio to the average of similar companies. This result is consistent with Saeedi et al. (2017), Kathirlu (2021), Yahyazadeh Far and Hijabi (2020), Ifeanyichukwu and Yusuf (2021), Joshi (2012) and is in contrast with the two studies of Mirfakhr-Al-Dini et al. (2011) and Sharma (2011).
Generally, these two internal criteria, in addition to evaluating current or past performance and determining the intrinsic value, have valuable information about the outlook and future performance of the stock.
تبلیغات
