تأثیر احساسات سرمایه گذاران بر احتمال تحریف صورت های مالی و محافظه کاری حسابرسان (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
بازار سرمایه ممکن است در مقاطعی شاهد رفتارهای احساسی و غیرمنطقی از جانب سرمایه گذاران باشد. این واکنش های احساسی ممکن است بر دو گروه تأثیرگذار باشد. در یک سو مدیران شرکت ها هستند که با مشاهده این فضای احساسی ممکن است انگیزه های فرصت طلبانه خود را دنبال کنند و در سوی دیگر، حسابرسان قرار دارند که ممکن است ریسک قضایی خود را کمتر ارزیابی کنند و حجم آزمون های محتوا و حق الزحمه خود را تغییر دهند؛ بنابراین، هدف این پژوهش، بررسی تأثیر احساسات سرمایه گذاران بر احتمال تحریف صورت های مالی و محافظه کاری حسابرسان در شرکت های پذیرفته شده در فرابورس ایران است. برای این منظور، نمونه ای شامل 51 شرکت پذیرفته شده در فرابورس ایران در بازه زمانی 1392 تا 1399 انتخاب و برای آزمون فرضیه های پژوهش از روش رگرسیون چندمتغیره و نیز رگرسیون لاجیت استفاده شد. نتایج نشان دادند احساسات سرمایه گذاران تأثیر معناداری بر احتمال تحریف صورت های مالی و احتمال صدور بند ابهام در تداوم فعالیت در گزارش حسابرسی ندارد؛ اما تأثیر منفی و معناداری بر حق الزحمه حسابرسی دارد. براساس یافته های پژوهش، با افزایش احساسات سرمایه گذاران، حسابرسان با کاهش حق الزحمه های حسابرسی، محافظه کاری خود را کاهش می دهند.The Effect of Investor Sentiment on the Likelihood of Misstatement of Financial Statements and Auditor Conservatism
Investors in the capital market sometimes exhibit emotional and irrational behavior, which can impact two groups of individuals. On one hand, company managers may act on their opportunistic motives when observing this emotional atmosphere. On the other hand, auditors may underestimate their legal risk and reduce the number of content tests they perform, resulting in a decrease in their fees. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of investors' sentiments on the probability of misstatement of financial statements and the conservatism of auditors in companies listed on the Iranian IFB stock exchange. A sample of 51 companies listed on the Iranian IFB stock exchange between 2013 and 2020 was selected, and multivariate regression and logit regression were used to test the research hypotheses. The results of the study indicate that investor sentiment does not significantly impact the likelihood of misstatement of financial statements or the likelihood of issuing a going concern opinion. However, it does have an inverse and significant effect on audit fees. As investor sentiment increases, auditors become less conservative, resulting in a reduction in audit fees. The keywords for this study include investors' sentiment, misstatement, auditors' conservatism, legal risk, and going concern opinion.IntroductionAs investors' sentiment intensifies, they tend to pay less attention to the financial statements and fundamental information of companies, instead relying on exaggerated and sometimes fictitious news and information published in the media and press. These conditions may incentivize managers to take advantage of the situation by misstating information that portrays the company's future growth prospects in a positive light for investors. However, if the image presented to investors is inconsistent with the reality of the company, the likelihood of financial statement fraud may increase. Additionally, auditors who are responsible for validating financial statements are also impacted by the investors' sentiment. On one hand, it is possible that investors' inattention to financial statements due to heightened sentiments may cause auditors to perceive less (or more) legal risk. This could result in a decrease (or increase) in the conservatism of auditors, with less (or more) effort put into obtaining sufficient and appropriate audit evidence. As a result, auditors may charge lower (or higher) fees to the employer or issue a statement of going concern opinion with less (or more) strictness. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the impact of investors' sentiment on the likelihood of financial statement misstatement and the conservatism of auditors. At times, the sentiments of investors have caused irrational fluctuations in the capital market. In such conditions, the media space is used to draw a bright future for various companies, enticing investors who do not trade based on fundamental information. However, with the passage of time and the emergence of actual company performance, the capital market corrects its emotional and inaccurate process through the release of new and confirmed information. Nevertheless, it is the immature investors who have acted under the influence of their emotions that ultimately become the main victims of this situation. Therefore, studying the field of investors' sentiments is crucial. While various experimental researches have dealt with different dimensions of investors' sentiments, the impact of investors' sentiments on the behavior of managers and auditors in the context of the Iranian capital market has not been addressed. This research aims to investigate whether investors' sentiments have an effect on the likelihood of financial statement misstatement and the conservatism of auditors. Methods & Material For the purpose of hypothesis testing, the research covers the time period between 2013 and 2020. The statistical population consists of all companies listed on the Iranian IFB stock exchange. The focus of the study is on the conservatism of auditors, making it appropriate to analyze a market dominated by smaller and riskier companies. The sample selection process involves excluding companies that do not meet certain criteria, such as being present in the Iranian stock market during the research period, not being in the financial industry, banking or financial intermediation, having a fiscal year ending on the Iranian calendar, not changing their fiscal year during the research period, having available information, and not having a trading break of more than one year. Applying these conditions and limitations, the study ultimately selected a sample of 51 companies from the Iranian IFB stock exchange, providing a total of 408 observations (company-years) for analysis. The study considers the "investor sentiment index" as the independent variable, while the "probability of misstatement of financial statements", "audit fee", and "probability of issuing a going concern opinion in the audit report" are the dependent variables. To determine the sentiment index, the researchers used the principal component analysis (PCA) technique. The study employed multivariate least squares regression and logit regression to test the research hypotheses. Findings The study found that the first hypothesis was rejected, meaning that investors' sentiments do not have an impact on the possibility of financial statement misstatement. This result can possibly be explained by the presence of appropriate institutional and structural frameworks. The second hypothesis was not rejected, indicating that investors' sentiments had a significant inverse effect on audit fees. As mentioned earlier, if auditors perceive less risk due to investors' emotional behavior and inattention to financial information, they may reduce audit fees and provide satisfaction to their employer while also fulfilling their economic motivations and maintaining their economic link with the employer. The third hypothesis was rejected, meaning that investors' sentiments did not have a significant effect on the possibility of issuing a going concern opinion in the audit report. It can be argued that the auditor's response to increased judicial risk may be hierarchical, and investors' sentiments may not have been enough during the study period to change the auditor's willingness to issue or not issue an ambiguity clause in the continuity of activity. Conclusion & ResultsThe findings of this study suggest that auditors should exercise caution in reducing their conservatism in response to emotional market conditions, as this behavior poses significant risks such as audit risk, reputation risk, and judicial risk. It is recommended that auditors maintain their professional skepticism and not compromise their auditing standards in response to market sentiment. Additionally, investors are advised to increase their financial literacy and avoid herd behavior in order to make informed decisions based on logic and analysis rather than emotions. This is especially important given the significant losses experienced by investors in the Iranian market in 2020 due to emotional decision-making. Overall, this research highlights the importance of maintaining objectivity and professionalism in auditing and investing, even in the face of market volatility and emotional pressures. * Corresponding author
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