بررسی تغییرات زمانی-مکانی نمایه حدی امواج گرمایشی و سرمایشی در ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
دما یکی از عناصر اقلیمی می باشد که در طول زمان دچار نوسانات زیادی شده است. زمانی که این نوسانات افزایش و کاهش بیش ازحد نرمال داشته باشند و در ناحیه بالا و پایین توزیع آماری قرار گیرند، در صورت تداوم می تواند منجر به ایجاد امواج گرمایشی و سرمایشی شود. هدف از این مطالعه تحلیل تغییرات زمانی و مکانی امواج گرمایشی و سرمایشی ایران طی دوره ای 50 ساله می باشد. بدین منظور دمای 663 ایستگاه همدید از سال 1341 تا 1383 از پایگاه داده ای اسفزاری اخذ گردیده است. به منظور تکمیل این پایگاه دمای روزانه از سال 1383 تا 1390 از سازمان هواشناسی کشور اخذ و به پایگاه داده ای مذکور اضافه گردیده است. به منظور انجام محاسبات و ترسیم نقشه ها از نرم افزارهای Matlab و grads و surfer بهره گرفته شده است. برای تحلیل روند از رگرسیون بهره گرفته شده است. نتایج حاصل از این مطالعه نشان داد که نمایه های حدی امواج سرمایشی و امواج گرمایشی ضمن اینکه تأثیر مستقیمی بر همدیگر داشته اند در اکثر مساحت ایران از روند افزایشی برخوردار بوده است. توزیع آماری نمایه حدی امواج سرمایشی ناهمگن تر از نمایه حدی امواج گرمایشی است. به طوری که ضریب تغییرات مکانی برای امواج سرد 22/84 درصد می باشد. همچنین نمایه حدی امواج سرمایشی تغییرپذیری مکانی بیشتری را داشته است. بالاترین میزان پراش مشترک نمایه حدی امواج گرمایشی و سرمایشی در شمال غرب، شرق و امتداد کوه های زاگرس دیده شده است. تحلیل روند نمایه ها نشان داد که امواج گرم در 65.8% ایران تشدید شده اند و از شدت امواج سرد در 48.5% ایران کاسته شده است.Analyzing Spatio-Temporal Variations of Extreme Index of heating and cooling waves in Iran
Temperature is one of the climate elements that has fluctuated a lot over time. When these fluctuations increase and decrease more than normal and are placed in the upper and lower regions of the statistical distribution, if continued, it can lead to the creation of heating and cooling waves. The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial changes in heating and cooling waves in Iran during a period of 50 years. For this purpose, the temperature of 663 synoptic stations from 1962 to 2004 was obtained from the Esfazari database. Then, in order to complete this database, the daily temperature from 2004 to 2011 was obtained from the Meteorological Organization of the country and added to the aforementioned database. In order to perform calculations and draw maps, Matlab, grads and Surfer software have been used. The results of this study showed that the index of cooling waves and heating waves, while having a direct effect on each other, had an increasing trend in most of the area of Iran. The statistical distribution of the index of cooling waves is more heterogeneous than that of the index of heating waves. So that the spatial variation coefficient for cold waves is 84.22%. Also, the index of cooling waves has more spatial variability. The highest common diffraction of the index of heating and cooling waves has been seen in the northwest, east and along the Zagros mountains. Analysis of the indexes trends show that heat waves have intensified in 65.8% of Iran and the intensity of cold waves has decreased in 48.5% of Iran
Extended
Introduction
Temperature is one of the major climatic variables, which it has a direct impact on different aspects of human life. It plays an essential role in the growth of crops and is considered a key driver of the biological system(Reicosky et al, 1988). It is associated with several types of extremes, for example, heat and cold waves which caused human societies maximum damage. Past occurrences of heat waves hitherto had significant impacts on several aspects of society. Have increased Mortality and morbidity. Ecosystems can be affected, as well as increased pressure on infrastructures that support society, such as water, transportation, and energy(Dewce, 2016). The long-term change of extreme temperatures has a key role in climatic change. The form of statistical distribution and the variability of mean values and also extreme event indicate a change in the region. It can be a small relative change in the mean as a result of a large change in the probability of extreme occurrence. Also, the variation in temperature data variance is significantly more important than the mean, for assessing the extreme occurrence of climate(Toreti and Desiato, 2008). The average surface temperature has increased the world between 0.56 and 0.92 ° C over the past 100 years(IPCC, 2007). Meanwhile, it was in the Middle East, the average daily temperature increased by 0.4-0.5 ° C in decades(Kostopoulou et al, 2014; Tanarhte et al, 2012). Considering that not many studies have been done in the field of spatio-temporal Variations of the heating and cooling waves thresholds in Iran, in this study, the spatio-temporal Variations of the heating and cooling waves thresholds in Iran during 50 years were examined and analyzed.
Methodology
The daily temperature from the beginning of the year 21/03/1967 to 19/05/2005 was obtained from the Esfazari database prepared by Dr. Masoudian at the University of Isfahan. In order to increase the time resolution of the mentioned database, the daily temperature of observations from 05/21/2005 to 05/12/2012 has been added to the mentioned database using the same method, and the exact spatial resolution (15 x 15 km) is used as a database. Threshold indices of heating waves are the average numbers between the 95th and 99th percentiles, that is, the extreme hot threshold to the limit of excessively extreme hot. For extreme cool, from the 5th percentile down to zero is used. Of course, a condition was added to these thresholds, which is that these thresholds must be repeated two days in a row. These thresholds were extracted for each day in the 50 years of the study period and used as the original database. In order to analyze the relationship between cooling and heating waves, Pearson's correlation coefficient was used and regression was used to analyze the trend.
Results and discussion
The average of cold waves was 5.26 ° C and for the heat waves is 30.20° C. Generally, if the temperature is upper or lower than this threshold, it is considered as hot or cold temperatures. A comparison of the median, mode, and average of cold waves with heat waves shows that the distribution is more heterogeneous for cold waves and its CV is 84.22%.
In southern Iran, the average threshold heat waves are higher. This situation can be caused by the effects of subtropical high-pressure radiation, low latitude, and proximity to the sea. Though the threshold is higher in these areas, fewer fluctuations and changes are seen in the area. Heights moderate the temperature so they pose a minimum threshold for heat waves i.e. an iso-threshold of 25 ° C is consistent along the Zagros mountain chains, but in the west and east of Zagros Mountains, the threshold of heat waves is increased.
Heat waves have increased in most areas of the country. So nearly 85 percent of the Iran has been an increasing trend, of which 65.8 percent is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Still, more areas of the country (60 percent) have a trend between 0.00828 and 0.00161. As can be seen, only 15% of the land area (including the southwest and northwest of the Country) had decreased heat waves. Cold waves, in most parts of the country, have a Positive Trend. However, about 25 percent of the study area's cold waves have a negative trend. they are located in areas higher than Latitude 30°. The largest decline of the wave's trend along the country is highlands. Nowadays, most of the country, has a trend between 0.01494 and 0.00828 ° C, respectively.
Conclusion
Common changes and effects of heat and cold waves had a direct relationship in many parts of the country. It is remarkable common variance in the East reached 55 percent, according to statistical significance. In some areas of the northwest and southwest, which have been impressive heights, the common variance is 40 percent. This common variance in mountains area has been high values. Investigation of heat waves trend shows that 65.8% of Iran significant positive trend and 7.1% significant negative trend. Also, the cold waves trend has indicated a 48.5% significant positive trend and a 10.8% significant negative trend. Climate change and global warming have changed the frequency and severity of temperature extremes. The present study, by examining the number of warm waves, concluded that the warm waves have increased in magnitude in 65.8% of the Iran zone. Also, the study of the cold waves trend showed that 48.5 percent of Iran had a positive trend, which means that the amount of temperature in the cold waves increased In other words, the severity of the cold has been reduced And only 10.8 percent of Iran had a negative cold wave trend And it shows the intensity of these waves is reduced.
Funding
There is no funding support.
Authors’ Contribution
The authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approthe contenttent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
Conflict of Interest
The authors declared no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
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