نقش مهاجرت اقلیمی بر کاهش بهره دهی محصولات کشاورزی با به کارگیری GIS و روش IO (مطالعه موردی: سیستان و بلوچستان)
آرشیو
چکیده
کشاورزی از جمله مهمترین بخش هایی است که بسیار زیاد تحت تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی قرار می گیرد.کاهش سطح زیرکشت،کاهش حاصل خیزی خاک، کاهش سطح آب،افزایش مرگ ومیر دام ها، کاهش درآمد کشاورزان ، افزایش قیمت غذا ومحصولات، رشد بیکاری و ... از جمله پیامدهای آن می باشد. با توجه به قرارگیری استان سیستان و بلوچستان در خشک ترین منطقه کشور و افزایش خشکسالی این پژوهش به بررسی نقش مهاجرت اقلیمی در کاهش بهره دهی محصولات کشاورزی با به کارگیریGIS و روش IO در استان سیستان وبلوچستان پرداخته است. ابتدا داده های بارش (میلی متر) دما و میزان آب در دسترس، سال های 1400-1370 مورد مطالعه قرار گرفتند. یافته ها نشان دهنده آن است که بارندگی، دمای فصلی و میزان آب روندی به ترتیب کاهش،افزایش و کاهش دارد که این تغییرات دارای اثر معناداری بر عملکرد محصولات کشاورزی منطقه می باشد. سپس به روش Overlay و تحلیل آماری در محیط GIS با تهیه نقشه های شیب، جهت وارتفاع از طریق روی هم گذاری لایه ها نقشه شکل زمین تهیه سپس با روی-هم گذاری لایه شکل زمین، کاربری اراضی،خاک و پوشش گیاهی نقشه توزیع پراکندگی خشکسالی در منطقه و لایه های اطلاعاتی، بررسی رابطه خشکسالی با محصولات کشاورزی نقشه وضعیت زمین های کشاورزی منطقه تهیه شد. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که سطح زیرکشت مقادیر محصولات مورد مطالعه(گندم، جو، ذرت، سیب زمینی) تغییر یافته است که مقداری منفی نسبت به سال پایه می باشد. تغییرات اقلیمی به همراه وقوع خشکسالی های شدید در این منطقه، اثرات نامطلوب اقتصادی و اجتماعی برجای گذاشته است که با توجه به وابستگی شدید اقتصادی مردم سیستان و بلوچستان به کشاورزی این بحران منجر به پدیده مهاجرت اجباری ساکنان شده است.The role of climatic migration in reducing crop productivity using GIS and IO method (Case study: Sistan and Baluchestan)
Agriculture is one of the most important sectors that are graetly affected by climate change.Reducing the level of agriculture, reducing soil fertility, reducing water level, increasing animal mortality, reducing farmers’ income, increasing food and product prices, growth of unemployment, etc. One of its consequences is. Considering the location of Sistan and Baluchestan province in the driest region of the country and increasing drought, this study aimed to investigate the role of climatic migration in reducing crop productivity by usingGIS and IO method in Sistan and Baluchestan province. -For this purpose, first, precipitation data (mm) of temperature and available water were studied in 1991- 1400. The results show that rainfall, seasonal temperature and trend water rate decrease, increase and decrease respectively, which has a significant effect on agricultural yield in the region.Then, by overlay method and statistical analysis in GIS environment, by preparing slope maps, for elevation through overlapping layers, land shape map was prepared and then by overlapping the land shape layer, land use, soil and vegetation distribution map of drought distribution in the region and information layers, the relationship between drought and agricultural crops of agricultural lands of the region was prepared -. The results indicate that the area under cultivation of the studied crops (wheat, barley, corn, potatoes) has changed, which is a negative value compared to the base year. Considering the position of Sistan and Baluchestan province in the driest region of the country and increasing drought and desertification of this region, economic and social problems such as migration from these regions are among the most important effects of drought. At first, the study of data obtained from SPI index, precipitation data (mm) temperature and available water values, 1991-1400 indicates that rainfall, seasonal temperature and trend water are decreasing, increasing and decreasing, respectively, and drought is increasing. These changes have a significant effect on the yield of the studied crops (wheat, barley, corn, potatoes) in the region. . Then, by overlay method and statistical analysis in GIS environment, drought distribution map in the region and information layers, investigation of the relationship between drought and agricultural crops, agricultural land status map of the region were prepared. The results of statistical analysis indicate that the level of cultivation of the values of the studied products has changed, which is a negative value compared to the base year. According to the results of this study, a considerable percentage of agricultural lands are no longer suitable for cultivation and another percentage is in a sensitive and deteriorating situation. In Sistan and Baluchestan province, the rate of drought years is increasing, and increasing severe and acute droughts can affect agriculture and consequently, employment in related jobs and consequently, migration. Environmental problems such as drought in Sistan and Baluchestan province have also created problems for people’s lives that people have been forced to give up their homes and lives and migrate to other cities of the province. . These migrations certainly have different effects and results such as increasing marginalization, increasing the price of housing and land in migratory provinces, reducing the level of agriculture, reducing soil fertility, reducing water level, increasing animal mortality, reducing farmers’ income, Increasing the price of food and products, lowering the quality of agricultural products, creating problems and cultural encounters, unemployment, etc. Therefore, it is expected that to control the consequences of these migrations with strong planning and management to prevent any crisis and problems in the country.
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