مطالب مرتبط با کلیدواژه
۱.
۲.
۳.
۴.
۵.
۶.
۷.
۸.
۹.
۱۰.
۱۱.
۱۲.
۱۳.
۱۴.
۱۵.
system dynamics
حوزههای تخصصی:
Resource allocation, as the main objective of managerial science, requires analyzing the long- and short-term effects of a policy, although this analysis would be more difficult in dynamic and volatile industries such as financial technology. Moreover, the integration of industries leads to more diverse product categories for a single company and makes it difficult for the implementation of decision making about resource allocation. In this regard, systemic PPM (PPM) models can be applied to balance long- and short-term generated values of the company by adopting policies about resource allocation for different products with respect to risk management concepts. The proposed systemic model should include interrelationships between different products, time relevant, and most importantly the potentials of dynamic analysis of product strategies, which is the main purpose of this research. The research strategy is to conduct a case study on the Iranian financial technology industry, by using systemic PPM modeling. In this research, a dynamic model was used in the payment industry, due to its competitive forces. Thus, system dynamics methodology was the research tool for analyzing data. Further, four cycles of risk management, resource allocation, innovation, and development were identified and then, analyzed in a dynamic approach to evaluating their efficiency for business development. Based on the results, the system dynamics methodology provided great outcomes for this problem. Finally, scenario analysis, focus, deep understandings of the decision-making process with respects to mental models, and stock and flow diagrams were among the most significant findings of this article.
An Integrated Knowledge Management Framework for Sustainable Supply Chain Using a System Dynamics Model for POGC(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
Supply chains have experienced rapid growth in recent years. Focusing purely on economic performance to optimize costs or return on capital can no longer guarantee development or sustainability in the chain. Hence, the concepts of green SCM and SSCM emerged to emphasize the importance of social and environmental concerns along with economic factors in supply chain programming. Using the SD method and considering KM , this study investigates the variables related to this topic and the variables of sustainable supply chain management and it determines the relationships between these variables and their impact on the research purpose. To achieve this, first, previous studies are reviewed, and the relevant variables are extracted and finalized according to the experts. Next, SD modeling is designed and various scenarios are defined by changing the effective values of the system. Eventually, several policies are presented to achieve the optimal situation. The optimal values for the ten main influential variables are extracted according to the expert opinion and the effects shown in the model are determined by these changes.
Modeling Optimal Capital Structure Via System Dynamics Approach(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
Several theories have been presented about the corporate capital structure; some researchers believe that the structure of capital and firm value depend on each other. Moreover, others believe that the firm value is not influenced by any changes in the structure of capital, and with the change in the structure of capital, the value of the firm remains constant. The present research studies the historical theories of capital structure and presents the classification of existing theories in terms of the optimal capital structure. This classification is subdivided into two categories: the presence of an optimal capital structure and the absence of an optimal capital structure. With the historical review of theories of capital structure and the presence of an optimal capital structure or the lack of an optimal capital structure, it seems that none has been a complete model and so far, no one has been able to provide an optimal capital structure. In this research, from the system dynamics approach and using VENSIM software, the capital structure and share price of the company have been studied and the results of model simulation with real data are to ensure the correct performance of the model behavior. And the results show that financing through debt in the capital structure of the company has a significant effect on the debt cost rate and capital cost rate and does not have a significant effect on stock prices. Finally, the share price shows little sensitivity to the company's financial structure.
Dynamic System Analysis of R&D Based on Localization Capabilities in the Commercial Auto Industry(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
منبع:
Journal of System Management, Volume ۷, Issue ۱, Winter ۲۰۲۱
101 - 120
حوزههای تخصصی:
According to published reports on the level of internalization of commercial vehicles, it shows that most carmakers pursue a minimal domestic manufacturing policy and less have a policy of increasing domestic manufacturing on their agenda. The most important research gaps are need to study R&D activities in the form of a dynamic system in the automotive industry based on the three variables of supply network capabilities, product innovation and process. The purpose of this study is to provide a dynamic model to investigate the behavior of a commercial vehicle R&D system. The present study is applied in terms of purpose. The basis of the system analysis is previous research as well as information obtained from interviews with automotive industry experts. For this purpose, first the variables affecting the cycle of R&D activities are studied and modeling is presented using the dynamics approach. Also, various policies on the performance of the development research cycle based on the time of knowledge acquisition and product introduction have been simulated and analyzed. The results of system performance simulation show that the weak share of research and development budget along with low and limited market share and lack of proper investment makes the research and development capability at an unfavorable level during the next 10 years. Therefore, it is suggested that the necessary measures in this regard be taken in the fields of product sales marketing along with appropriate investment in research and development.
Modeling Liquidity Risk Management in Banking Using System Dynamics Approach(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
Banks as one of the most important and crucial economic sectors in each country play a significant role in economic growth and development and they face various risks one of which is liquidity risk. Managing liquidity risk is of great importance and identifying its effective factors is more vital. The present study aims to pre-sent a dynamic model to manage liquidity risk. System dynamics is used to find a risk making structure and present the most effective solution to manage it. In this method, by providing a mathematical model, simu-lating the results of various scenarios is possible. The results of implement-ing four scenarios on the model were simulated and analyzed. The results revealed that reducing legal deposits and nonperforming loans and increasing attraction of deposits is influential in banks liquidity risk.
Simulating the Maintenance Performance on the Attractiveness of Data Center Services: A System Dynamics Approach(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
Nowadays, information-making is growing rapidly due to the developments in technology; thus, it is critical to maintain information and establish integrated systems for storage and office automation in any organization; thereby, the establishment of datacenters has become a requirement for them. Despite offering models related to some parts of the data centers, there are still ambiguities in identifying the influential and key variables. This study aimed at offering a dynamic model for the parts related to the attractiveness of data center services by using Vensim software. Five reinforcing loops and seven balancing loops were extracted through studying the review of literature; then, the relevant stock and flow variables have been defined. Afterwards, the model is presented in the form of cause and effect model and the stock-flow model. Also, various scenarios have been studied, including increasing the training capacity and attractiveness, imposing an overload on the network and switch failure, upgrading the bandwidth carrying capacity, reducing the maximum maintenance. According to the results and sensitivity analysis done in this research, it can be said that the attractiveness of services, the acquired skills, and the maximum feasible maintenance along with the bandwidth carrying capacity, storage, and processing power of the data centers is so vital in determining the performance level of data centers and the attractiveness of services.
The Impact of Provisioning Policies on Non-Performing Loans(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
The Central Bank has specific regulations, including asset classification guidelines and how to perform loan’s loss provisioning to oversee banks and credit institutions. The Central Bank seeks to improve the quality of the loan and reduce the amount of nonperforming loans by reducing the revenues of the bank or credit institution through imposing fine on balance of each of the categories of non-performing loans. In this study, the effectiveness of this policy has been investigated using the system dynamics method. The results of the research indicate that the application of the above policy would at least lead to a 17% reduction in the amount of non-performing loans’ accumulation. Research suggests that, if the coverage factor of a pledge during the provision of loan, increases the effectiveness of the policy in the fight against the accumulation of non-performing loans will be eliminated. This phenomenon suggests that the Central Bank needs to focus more on preventive regulatory approaches than on a priori methods in monitoring the credit institutions in providing a loan.
Modeling of Real Estate Income Tax: System Dynamics Approach(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
منبع:
Journal of Money and Economy, Vol. ۱۵, No. ۴, Fall ۲۰۲۰
463-487
حوزههای تخصصی:
This study aims to design a model to realize real estate income tax in Tabriz city with due attention to the tax collection process. According to the related literature, the variables of "tax payment," "real estate," "tax evasion," "investment incentive," "rent and real estate speculation," and "advertisement in tax collection" are considered as key variables, affecting the conceptual model of real estate tax system. According to the dynamic systems method, the interaction and relationships between variables are shown by state-flow diagrams based on the literature and experts' opinions. These relationships are finally simulated by Vensim software. The results show that advertisement has a significant effect on the amount of taxes paid by taxpayers. Tax transparency has also reduced rents for taxpayers and ultimately reduced tax evasion and timely tax collection in the estimated budget of real estate resources and single-occupancy jobs. Scenarios show that lowering the tax rate in the trading and business market and large corporations and businesses' rental income are strongly influenced by tax revenues.
Trust in Blockchain-Based Advertising: A System Dynamics Approach(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
As an emerging technology, blockchain can be used in all areas of e-commerce, one of which is advertising. The present study has been designed to identify a dynamic model of trust in blockchain-based advertising and acceptance of this type of advertising. In order to achieve the purpose of the research, the required information was collected by literature, background review and experts opinions. In the next step, the research information was analyzed using systems dynamics methodology (Sterman approach) and a dynamic research model was presented. After model validation and examining the causal relationships, simulations and scenario analysis were performed using Vensim software. The results show the positive effect of the audience, advertiser and advertising characteristics on trust in blockchain-based advertising and, consequently, the improvement of the audience loyalty coefficient. Also, the results of scenarios indicate an ascending growth (Pessimistic: about %60, Optimistic: about %80) in audience loyalty. Finally, practical suggestions were presented in accordance with the research results
Modeling Open R&D Ecosystem Via System Dynamics Approach A Case Study: Nanotechnology(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
Today, business environments are fast changing and Nanotechnology-driven firms are opening up their organizational boundaries to tap into an external source for R&D activities. To reform the structure of the R&D activities in order to be successful, firms face challenges in finding a proper place in the R&D ecosystem. Therefore, this research examines the open R&D ecosystem through these key questions. Which components can form an open R&D ecosystem and how do interactions behave in a dynamic model? This research is done in 3 stages; the first stage is data collection based on the Fuzzy questionnaire, then the data analysis through the Fuzzy-DEMATEL method, and finally modeling the dynamics of the open R&D ecosystem.. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive survey information in terms of collecting information. The findings suggest that Nano-tech in Iran relies on two main components that affect each other: technological innovation performance and ecosystems. the result shows that inside the ecosystem, the most share of activities is related to the human resources and governance sub-ecosystems. In addition, scientific works under the concept of technological innovation performance have the greatest impact from sub-ecosystems, and the balance between performance and ecosystem is a possibility for Nano-firms to do more R&D activities. Overall, this study provides a better understanding of open R&D by suggesting that further opening of the R&D ecosystem is necessary for nanotechnology.
Designing the Optimal Model of Banking Assets and Liabilities Management based on System Dynamics Approach(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
Banks as the largest financial intermediaries play a vital role in collecting savings and directing them toward manufacturing activities. Hence, assets and liabilities management is crucial for them and their depositors. In this study, through system dynamics approach, a dynamic model was proposed to manage assets and liabili-ties optimally. After building the model and conducting validation and sensitivity analysis, three scenarios were devised and were simulated and analyzed via the proposed model. The results revealed that taking effective decisions and actions to collect more deposits, especially time deposits as well as increasing the quality of credit assets (if allocated optimally) can be effective in improving the performance of banks. Therefore, using systems thinking and system dynamics can aid banks in managing their assets and liabilities optimally. mary of the significant items in the paper, including the results and conclusions.
Analyzing the Factors Affecting the Efficiency of Iran’s Central Bank: An Application of System Dynamics Modeling(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
The central bank is the most important economic institution of any country, and for this reason, the efficiency of this institution is of particular importance. Study on the efficiency of the Central Bank of Iran is an inevitable necessity due to the instability of prices and significant non-performing loans in the banking system. In this study, first, efficiency of the Central Bank of Iran along with 15 different countries was calculated by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method. The input variables for calculating the efficiency of the central bank contain fixed assets and personnel and administrative cost. The output variables include monetary policy and banking supervision, which banking supervision includes financial and banking freedom and the ratio of non-performing loans. Then factors affecting the efficiency of the Central Bank of Iran between the years 2012 to 2018 were analyzed by using the system dynamics modeling method. In the first step, the causal loop diagrams (CLD) and the stock-flow diagram (SFD) of factors affecting efficiency in Central Bank of Iran were drawn were drawn. Then model validation tests were performed. Finally, different scenarios were investigated. The results of this study showed that the Central Bank of Iran in 2012-2018 is one of the most inefficient central banks among the 16 studied countries and is a long way from the three countries on the efficiency frontier like South Korea, Canada, and Australia. Central bank Independence and the significant amount of non-performing loans of the banking system are the main reasons for the inefficiency of the central bank of Iran. By applying different scenarios to improve the efficiency of the Central Bank, it was concluded that the most important effective factors to improve the efficiency of the Central Bank of Iran are monitoring the banking system along with preventing the increase of government debt with the independence of the Central Bank.
Modelling the effect of monetary policies of central bank on macroeco-nomic indicators in Iran using system dynamics and fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making techniques(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
The most important policymaker entity in the bank-centered economy of Iran is central bank of Islamic Republic of Iran which has always been trying to manage and improve macroeconomic indicators by applying monetary policies. However, investigation of Iran's economy after four decades shows that this country has always suffered from double-digit inflation rates and 15000-fold liquidity throughout this period, while GDP of Iran has grown only by two times during this period. This paper tries to evaluate the effect of monetary policies of central bank on macroeconomic indicators by analytical-descriptive and library method via combining system dynamics and fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making using Vensim and Super Decision software. Monetary policy instruments in this re-search include foreign exchange rate, deposits interest rate, facilities interest rate, required reserve ratio, and open market operations. Further, the macroeconomic indicators include inflation, liquidity, national foreign exchange value, and eco-nomic growth. The results indicated that the most important macroeconomic indi-cators in the country according to economic experts are "national foreign ex-change value" and "inflation". The most important tool for monetary policies of central bank is "foreign exchange rate". Indeed, in order to improve the economic misery index, this bank should take measures to improve the national foreign exchange value, then manage inflation and liquidity, and eventually adjust the banking interest rate
System Dynamics Modeling to Forecast Economic and Financial Market Indicators Using Interrelationship of Shocks Among Global Financial Markets(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
Objective: In today's interconnected global economy, changes in one market can have ripple effects across related markets, making it essential for economic and financial policymakers and experts to accurately predict these mutual impacts. Various methods have been developed to forecast the impact and mutual impressions of financial markets. In this study, a generic framework is proposed for forecasting economic and financial market indicators using the interrelationship of shocks among global financial markets and a system dynamic approach. Methods: To demonstrate the stages of the proposed generic framework and system dynamics modeling, as an example, the study forecasts the Iranian economic and the Tehran Stock Exchange indicators using their interactions with eleven major global financial markets, including London, Tokyo, Shanghai, Frankfurt, Paris, Milan, SIX Swiss, Istanbul, Korea, Bombay Stock Exchanges, and Dubai Financial Market. The New York Stock Exchange index return is used as a stimulant or driver for the other stock exchanges in the model.Results: The results indicate that the proposed forecasting model successfully predicted the Iranian economic and the Tehran Stock Exchange indicators. Furthermore, the study finds that while Iranian exports are sensitive to global financial markets, the sensitivity of imports and production returns to global financial markets is low. Conclusions: The proposed generic framework and system dynamics modeling can provide valuable insights for predicting different economies using their interactions with the global economy and finances.
بررسی اثرات انتشار ارز دیجیتال ملی بر سیاست های پولی ایران با استفاده از روش پویایی سیستم(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
منبع:
پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار) سال ۲۴ بهار ۱۴۰۳ شماره ۱
119 - 134
حوزههای تخصصی:
در حال حاضر در سطح جهان، 87 کشور -که بیش از 90 درصد از تولید ناخالص داخلی جهانی را نمایندگی می کنند- در حال بررسی ارز دیجیتال بانک مرکزی ([1]CBDC) هستند. بنابراین بسیار مهم است که بانک های مرکزی، پیامدهای CBDCها را برای ثبات مالی و سیاست پولی درک کنند. CBDCها نباید آسیبی به اقتصاد کشور وارد کنند؛ به ویژه نباید به منبع اختلال مالی تبدیل شوند که می تواند انتقال سیاست پولی را مختل کند. به تازگی جزئیات پول دیجیتال بانک مرکزی که در ایران «ریال دیجیتال» نام گرفته، توسط بانک مرکزی ایران منتشر شده است. این مطالعه به دنبال بررسی تغییرات سیاست های پولی کشور با ورود ریال دیجیتال توسط بانک مرکزی به سیستم پولی کشور است و با استفاده از روش پویایی سیستم، به تحلیل این موضوع می پردازد. نتایج این مطالعه، نشان می دهد که با انتشار ریال دیجیتال، ضریب فزاینده پول کاهش پیدا کرده و میزان عرضه پول را کاهش می دهد و به دلیل اینکه ریال دیجیتال، ماهیتی مشابه اسکناس و مسکوک دارد، می تواند قدرت خلق نقدینگی را توسط بانک ها کاهش دهد، لذا بانک مرکزی می تواند از این ابزار، به عنوان سیاست پولی انقباضی جهت کنترل تورم در کشور استفاده نماید.
[1].Central Bank Digital Currency