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Tehran Stock Exchange
حوزههای تخصصی:
The current study aims to investigate the relationship between Iran’s Targeted Subsidies Plan and the stock returns of listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). Stock returns is obtained from the indices of three industries: pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and machinery and equipment. Moreover, the present research uses gold price and dollar price as control variables. The Targeted Subsidies Plan is the independent variable that takes the value of zero before implementation and one after implementation. Multivariate regression is used for data analysis over the period 2009-2011. The results indicate that there is no relationship between the Targeted Subsidies Plan and market returns. Moreover, paired t-test is applied to verify the results of regression analysis, which rejects the results of the regression model. This is because of the higher accuracy of regression analysis compared to paired t-test which only examines one variable. Therefore, we rely on the results of regression analysis and reject the existence of a significant relationship between the Targeted Subsidies Plan and the stock returns of the studied industries.
Ranking Stock Exchange Companies With a Combined Approach Based on FAHP-FTOPSIS Financial Ratios and Comparing Them With Tehran Stock Exchange Rankings(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
Ranking of companies listed on the exchange represent their status and considered a criterion for investment. Also, it increases market's competition, development and efficiency. In this study, the fifty superior companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange were ranked based on financial ratios (liquidity, operational, leverage and profitability) using FAHP- FTOPSIS hybrid approach during the years 2013 . Initially, capital markets authorities and universities' financial masters perspectives about effect of ratios were collected by questionnaire and weighting with FAHP technique and then companies were ranked based on ratios using the FTOPSIS technique. The results indicate that there is a weak correlation between two groups of ranking. In fact, results show that the stock exchange’s selected top companies necessarily do not have higher rankings in terms of financial ratios and the firms’ financial Statements are weak approximation for firms’ superiority likelihood in the stock exchange.
Predicting Financial Distress in Tehran Stock Exchange(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
Companies incur significant costs from the financial distress. Predicting financial distress will have an important role in preventing bankruptcy. The aim of the present study is to predict the financial distress costs using the Leland and Toft models, during 1996 and 1998. This study examines data relating to 49 companies listed in the Tehran stock exchange collected over ten years from 2005 to 2014. Leland and Toft model (1996) considers the financial distress costs and benefits from the tax shield in general. However, Leland and Toft model (1998) considers the financial distress costs and benefits from the tax shield in detail by using parameter. According to the research findings, the companies working in automotive industry are bankrupt, but the companies working in food and beverage, pharmaceutical, base metals and cement industries have a good distance from financial default. The results help to improve the decision-making process and to avoid the financial distress.
Impact of Long-term Debt on Overinvestment Problem of Agency(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
Business units are always faced with investment opportunities and need to make logical decisions on an optimal investment. Indeed, the investment of each business unit should be done with regard to the resource constraints and its effectiveness through the criteria for evaluating the projects including the net present value (NPV). The paper aims to investigate the effect of long-term debt on the overinvestment of agency problem. The present research is applied in terms of its purpose and it is descriptive and correlation in terms of nature. The statistical population of the study was the financial information related to the performance of 540 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during 2011 and 2015. 152 companies were selected by the systematic elimination sampling. The data collection was carried out using the Tadbir Pardaz and Rahavard-e-Novin software as well as the Research Management, Islamic Studies and Development of Stock Exchange Organization and Stock Exchange Organization websites. The research data are hybrid. The data were analyzed using the F-Limer and Hausman tests using Eviews9 software. Based on the results, the pre-investment declined by 36% at a significant level less than 0.05% while increasing long-term debt by 1%, and the overinvestment reduces 69% by a one-percent increase in the financial leverage.
The Impacts of Financial Structure on Financial Performance of Banks listed in Tehran Stock Exchange: An Empirical Application(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
Financial structure is a combination of debt and equity and regards as one of the most important issues in banking industry. The purpose of financial structure decision is to create an appropriate combination of financing resources to minimize the cost of capital and thus maximize the company's market value. This study investigates the impacts of banks financial structure on their Returns (ROA and ROE). In addition, it investigates the moderating roles of corporate governance, financial constraints, capital intensity and size. This research is an applied descriptive correlational research. To test the hypotheses, unbalanced panel data is used. The financial data extracted from “Rah Avarde Novin" software and the database of "Tadbir Pardaz" company. The statistical population includes all banks listed on Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2009 to 2016. The results indicate a positive significant impacts of financial structure and the banks’ ROA and ROE. Moreover, the results show that capital intensity and the size significantly moderate the relation between financial structure with ROA and ROE.
Default Risk and Momentum Effect; Some Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between default risk and momentum effect using data from companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange.To calculate default risk,we used Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) option pricing model. To describe momentum effect, by determining the formation period to be 6 months, and the holding period to be 3,6, or 12 months, we firstlyexamined the profitability of short term (3/6), midterm (6/6), and long term (12/6) momentum strategies and found that during 2010-2015 time period, only midterm momentum strategy is profitable.Then,we showedthere is no relationship between default risk andmomentum effect.
Stock Market Returns before and after Brokerage Firms' Fiscal Year-End: The case of Tehran Stock Exchange(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
Market efficiency paradigm and time patterns concerned, as "calendar anomalies" is a contradictory issue for researches. TSE's market participants have a negative understanding of the 6th and 12th month of the fiscal year and this issue is rooted in the obliged credit settlement of the brokerage industry at the year-end. The purpose of this study is to investigate the TSE's total return before and after brokerage firms' year-end. Using GARCH-PQ, and data of market index in periods between 1390 and 1396, we concluded that periods of1st to 22ndof 6thand 12th months,and 22nd to the end of 6th and 12th months, have respectivelynegative and positive effectson TSE's stock index.
Corporate Default Prediction among Tehran Stock Exchange’s Selected Industries(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
This study aims to present a model for predicting corporate default among Tehran Stock Exchange’s selected industries. To do this, corporate default drivers were identified and selected by referring to previous research findings and using experts’ opinions. These drivers were divided into five categories: accounting ratios, market variables, macroeconomic indicators, nonfinancial factors, and earnings quality measures. Structural equation modeling (SEM) technique was used to derive the prediction model. In this technique, corporate default drivers were used as latent independent variables, and their constituent factors were considered as observable indicators of the above variables. In addition, corporate default, as the latent dependent variable, was calculated by a measure based on the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) option pricing model. After implementing structural equation modeling (SEM) technique by use of Smart PLS software, a prediction model that contains influential drivers of corporate default was derived and presented for each of the selected industries.
Comparison of Some Data Mining Models in Forecast of Performance of Banks Accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange Market(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
منبع:
Iranian Journal of Finance, Volume ۳, Issue ۱, Winter ۲۰۱۹
90 - 109
حوزههای تخصصی:
In order to survive in the modern world, organizations must be equipped with the mechanisms that not only maintain their competitive advantage, but also result in their progress and improvement. Prediction of banks’ performances is an important issue, and a poor performance in banks may primarily lead to their bankruptcy, thereby affecting national economics. The bank performance prediction model uses scientific and systematic approaches to diagnose the financial operations of institutes. According to a precise and strict evaluation, the model can detect the weakness of institutions in advance and provide early warning signals to related financial governments. In the present study, we have used three data mining models to predict the future performance of the banks accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) and Iran Fara Bourse. Initially, 53 financial ratios were selected and, consequently, reduced to 28 using the fuzzy Delphi technique. The statistical population included 18 banks listed on TSE and Iran Fara Bourse, which provided their financial statements during the period of 2011 to 2017. Data were collected from the Codal site based on 28 financial ratios using C4.5 decision tree, AdaBoost, and Naïve Bayes algorithm. According to the findings, the Naïve Bayes algorithm was the optimal predictive model with the accuracy of 88.89%.
The effect of Related Parties Transactions on the Firm Value: Moderating Role of Audit Committee(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
In recent financial scandals, related parties transactions (RPTs) have been as one of the major concerns, so that the targeted use of these transactions and lack of their disclosure or insufficient disclosure are some of the factors in the failure of the corporates. In RPTs, there is a risk that the related party may be favoured with terms that could harm the interests of the company’s shareholders. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of different types of related parties transactions on the firm value with the moderating role of the audit committee incorporates listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. The research statistical sample consists of 100 listed firms in the Tehran Stock Exchange in 6 years of 2013-2018. This research, based on the nature and content, is a descriptive/ correlational research. Using Panel data and multiple regression, the results of the research show that there is a negative relationship between RPTs and the firm value. The findings also show that there is a positive relationship between the audit committee and the firm value. Also, the findings show that different types of RPTs have a different effect on the firm value. The results also show that the audit committee does not affect the relationship between RPTs and the firm value.
Analyzing Shareholder Network in the Tehran Stock Exchange(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
منبع:
Iranian Journal of Finance, Volume ۳, Issue ۴, Autumn ۲۰۱۹
113 - 134
حوزههای تخصصی:
The stock market plays an important role in the economic development of countries. Network analysis is one of the latest methods in analyzing the stock market. It is a new concept for a macro view of the whole market in quantitative science literature. Therefore, this research analyzes the available Shareholder network in the Tehran Stock Exchange from 2013 to 2017. This research is based on a type of data collected and analyzed is quantitative research. And, its’ type is network analysis. The research results indicate that many of shareholders are connected to each other, although a class structure governs their relations. Some of the shareholders, in comparison with others, have a better position. Having a better position caused them to encounter fewer mediators in gaining access to other shareholders, and also easier access to available resources. The shareholders’ ability in gaining access to information through the cluster of network members enhances too. Therefore, it is claimed that these shareholders can play the role of key actors in the governing structure. Also, the results of the Pareto distribution indicate that the distribution of power among the Shareholders is approximately 25/75, that is, 75 per cent of the strength in the hands of 25 per cent of the Shareholders.
Network Analysis of Interpersonal Relationships in Tehran Stock Exchange(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
The stock market has an important role in growth and development of countries. Network analysis is one of the latest method in analyzing the stock market. In quantitative science literature, It is a new concept for a macro view to whole market. Therefore, this research analyzes the interpersonal relationships’ network in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). From the type of data collected and analyzed point of view, this study is a quantitative research in network analysis domain. The research period is from 2013 to 2017. Softwares such as PreMap and UCINET used for analyzing data. The research results indicated that some individuals, in comparison with others, have a better position in communicative networks. Having better position has caused these individuals to encounter fewer mediators in gaining access to others, and in turn easier access to available resources. In addition, their ability in gaining access to information enhanced via the cluster of network members. Therefore, it might be concluded that these individuals are key actors in governing structure of the TSE. Furthermore, this network follows a kind of bus morphology i.e. individuals act as a bridge for other units and connect them to the core of the communication network.
The Impact of Official Publication of Information in Tehran Stock Exchange on Shares Prices: A GMM Approach(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
Released information in stock markets plays an important role in making decisions by agents like brokers, investors and other market activists. Rational decision-making in these markets will be possible if relevant and significant information is being released on-time. Otherwise, transparency and equality in the market is compromised. This study aims to respond to the question of whether officially released information about major increase in Predicted Earnings per Share (PEPS) in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) is significant and affects the growth of shares prices. For this purpose, we selected 30 official announcements of significant increases in PEPS for 30 companies from early 2012 to early 2015. This sample gathered from a set of over 2000 announcements. Findings of a Dynamic Panel Data model based on Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation method show that official release of information has no significant effect on shares prices. It means that the information maybe has affected the prices before its official publication, so, it is needed to prepare good conditions for information to be released on time and effectively in TSE. JEL Classification: C23, G14
Corporate Governance and Credit Risk in the Iranian Banking Industry(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
The primary purpose of this research is to investigate the impacts of corporate governance on credit risk in the Iranian banking industry. The sample consists of 20 banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2011-2016, using panel data. In this research, credit risk and corporate governance are the dependent and independent variables, respectively. The meta-synthesis method was used for compiling a checklist of corporate governance indicators. Then, the content analysis method was applied for measuring the corporate governance index; i.e., the number of dimensions disclosed on the total number of disclosable dimensions. The results indicate that after adjusting the control variables namely the size, the financial leverage, the ratio of capital adequacy, the GDP and inflation, there is a significant negative relationship between corporate governance quality and the credit risk, which means more effective corporate governance will reduce information asymmetry, increases the clarity and stakeholder confidence, and finally reduces banks’ credit risk. Accordingly, the final recommendation is to reduce credit risk by improving the mechanisms of corporate governance in the Iranian banking industry.
Accruals Quality and Bankruptcy in Shirata Model (Case Study: Tehran Stock Exchange)(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
منبع:
Journal of Money and Economy, Vol. ۱۵, No. ۴, Fall ۲۰۲۰
381-402
حوزههای تخصصی:
In this research, the relationship between accruals quality and bankruptcy of companies has been studied. According to Dechow et al.'s (1995) model, the quality of accruals was measured, and according to the Shirata model (1998), bankruptcy was examined. Operations were considered as the control variables. The research hypothesis was tested using a multivariate regression model and a combined data method. The study's statistical sample consists of 197 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange from 2011 to 2019. The results showed a significant and negative relationship between the quality of accruals and bankruptcy of the companies. It means that in bankruptcy, the use of earnings management through optional accruals reduces the quality of accruals. The results indicate that size, return on assets, and audit quality all significantly impact the quality of accruals. Besides, the leverage, life, and operating cash flow have a significant and negative effect on accruals' quality. However, the ratio of market value to book value does not significantly affect the quality of accruals.
Investigating the financial crisis of the Tehran Stock Exchange using the entropy method of transfer and comparing it with the US financial market(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
This work aims to analyze the relationship between stocks in the financial market of the Tehran Stock Exchange embedded in their transfer entropy. In this regard, the behavior of the transfer entropy between indices of 180 corporations of the Tehran Stock Exchange has been studied. Then the footprint of crises of the market has been searched in the trends of the transfer entropy. The result has been compared with the result of the analysis imposed on the stocks included in the Dow Jones industrial index in the stock exchanges of the United States. In order to investigate the financial crisis of the Tehran Stock Exchange, the stock price data of 180 companies in this market that were active in the period from 2008 to 2018 are analyzed. It is observed that the average pairwise transfer entropy of indices in the Dow Jones group declines over the financial crises in the United States. In Iran, despite the United States, the financial crises have not left a footprint in the pairwise transfer entropy over the studied period. Such an observation suggests future studies on the pairwise and possibly collective behaviors of indices in Iran and the United States.
Study on Gold as a Hedge or Safe Haven for the Stock Market by a Markov Switching Approach(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
Although gold is no longer a central cornerstone of the international monetary and financial system, it still attracts considerable attention from researchers and investors. Nowadays, many investors manage their risk with valuable assets such as gold. This paper examines the dynamic relationships between gold and stock markets in the Tehran Stock Exchange. We have applied the Markov switching method to study the role of gold as a hedge or safe haven for the Tehran Stock Exchange risk from 1998 to 2018. The high dependence and low dependence regimes used in the Markov switching model are based on empirical results that show two regimes for all markets under investigation: a low volatility regime and a high volatility regime. The study's findings show that gold can act as a strong hedge and cannot act as a safe haven for risk of The Tehran stock exchange.
The Effect of Industry Type on the Relationship between Financial Reporting Transparency and Financial Health in Tehran Stock Exchange(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
This study aimed to evaluate the effect of industry type on the relationship between financial reporting transparency and financial health in companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. The statistical population included companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during 2005 to 2016. By systematic elimination, 79 companies from 5 industries were selected as statistical sample and were tested by composite regression of hypotheses. Results of significant coefficients test based on fitted regression equations indicated a significant positive relationship between financial reporting transparency and financial health. The moderating relationship of industry type was also confirmed on the relationship between financial reporting transparency and financial health. Hence, business continuity and profitability (financial health) will be greater by investing in companies that have greater financial reporting transparency. Thus, the relationship between financial reporting transparency and financial health is high in industries of automobile, auto part, basic metals, chemicals, cement, lime and plaster, and pharmaceuticals, respectively.
Designing an Optimal Model Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Non-Linear Time Series (case study: Tehran Stock Exchange Index)(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
Investing in stocks is fraught with long risks that make it tough to manage and predict the choices out there to the investor. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is a popular method which also incorporates technical analysis for making predictions in financial markets. The purpose of this work is an applied study which is conducted using description based on testing as method. The discussion is established on analytical-computational methods. In this research, the documents and statistics of the Tehran Stock Exchange are used to obtain the desired variables. Descriptive statistics and inferential statistics, as well as Perceptron multi-layer neural networks are utilized to analyze the data of this research. The results of this research show the confirmation of the high prediction accuracy of the Tehran Stock Exchange index compared to other estimation methods by the presented model, which has the ability to predict the total index with less than 1.7% error.
Multiple portfolio optimization in Tehran Stock Exchange(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
حوزههای تخصصی:
Managing a single portfolio is a basic assumption in the most of research. However, in reality, an advisor manages many accounts at the same time; therefore, there is a significant dependency among portfolios and correlation between decisions on one portfolio with the performance of others, so the results of multi portfolio is different with classic models (single portfolio management, that portfolios are optimized independently) due to market impact and the trade dependency of one account to the other accounts. We propose a structural model to optimize accounts simultaneously, considering interdependences, decision’s correlation and mutual behavioral effects of managed portfolios. Moreover, to compare and analyze both single portfolio and multi portfolio approaches, real data from Tehran Stock Exchange in 1398 are used and model is solved with GAMS. Results indicate that multi portfolio optimization excel other approach and consequence notable improvement on the perspective of customer and advisor. Also, for the validation of the proposed model, the selected stocks are considered in pairs to solve the model and the results show the proper performance of the model with different stocks, thus indicating the validity of the model.