risk

The financial potential of agricultural enterprises has important for the development of the domestic economy. Violation of positive dynamics of the development of the country's economic system highlighted the urgent problems and existing prospects for the development of the domestic economy. A special role in this process belongs to the agrarian sector, therefore it is advisable to analyze the state of the financial potential of the agrarian sector enterprises in the context of modern development of the domestic economic system. In the article we have analyzed indicators that characterize the level of enterprises development in the agricultural sector of Ukraine. The article defines the main strategic orientations Increasing the financial potential of an agricultural enterprise should be the effective implementation and use of information technologies, ensuring financial security, financial independence and financial stability. The main sources of financial potential of agricultural enterprises are determined. It has been proven that the use of information technologies allows to speed up and simplify the process of providing financial services to agricultural enterprises, optimize the cost structure and improve their management. It has been proved that such changes are a confirmation of the need to strengthen the financial potential of agricultural enterprises by increasing the shares of additional and reserve capital. It was established that the financial potential of agricultural enterprises is high, but it is characterized with descending dynamics. The financial stability of the enterprise is determined relatively its functioning and possible development prospects. It is considered as the system's ability to maintain planned development despite changes in internal and external factors of influence and their forms of manifestation. Ignoring obstacles and the possibility of overcoming them along with the preservation of internal ones of characteristics is an important property of countering obstacles. A certain set of obstacles and prerequisites for the development of the financial potential of agricultural enterprises allowed to identify the most urgent problem areas, to update and focus attention on the main problems of the potential of enterprises. Definitely problematic the range of questions made it possible to identify the main areas of solution problems of formation and development of the financial potential of enterprises, the formation of a system of its tools, to justify the need to create a concept of support and development of the financial potential of agrarian enterprises.

(1) Background: The article proposes a methodical procedure for assessing the risk of implementing the diversification strategy of an industrial enterprise based on of management information technologies. The result of which was the improvement of the solution of practical tasks of the diversification strategy with the help of economic and statistical modeling; (2) Methods: the article proposes a methodology for assessing the risk of implementing a diversification strategy, which is based on modeling a portfolio of strategies using economic and statistical indicators: mathematical expectation; dispersions; covariances; (3) Results: As a result of the approbation of the methodical approach, the issue of optimization of complex diversification plans of enterprises in the conditions of the implementation of information technologies was considered. This approach is based on achieving such a structure of diversification of the enterprise, when the expected efficiency will be the maximum possible, and the expected risk will be the lowest. The solution to this problem was realized on the example of product diversification, when the enterprise decides to open the production of several heterogeneous goods; (4) Conclusions: It was concluded that combinations of key success factors distinguish one segment from another, then there are always factors that are part of several or many areas. The obtained calculations showed the possibility of using this methodical approach when assessing the risk of implementing a diversification strategy in the conditions of the introduction of information technologies. The possibility of its use in the context of justifying the choice of a variant of a diversified production portfolio of an enterprise organized on the basis of management information technologies is considered.

Objective: A study of the movement of the insurance industry returns shows that the movement of income returns was less than the movement of the insurance industry. The movements of lower income returns than the movements of paid losses of the insurance industry in the economy are due to various variables, including the management of the insurance industry, part of which is due to risk recognition. Which helps managers in the insurance industry, to the extent of tolerable and intolerable risks in the acceptance or non-acceptance of various swimming risks, and by managing them play an important role in marketing and increasing the demand for insurance and in general, In line with the optimal growth of the insurance industry. Methodology: This study, using generalized conditional autoregression models, ARIMA-GARCH / TARCH and beta coefficient, has evaluated the impact of risk on the return of the insurance industry in the Iranian economy during the period 1350-1398. Results: The results showed that there is a significant relationship between the study of the impact of risk on the return of Basma industry. Also in this research, systematic risk has been investigated using the beta coefficient method. Since the result of the impact of risk on the return on income of the insurance industry is 67%. Because the obtained beta coefficient is less than one and greater than zero. This result indicates that the income of the insurance industry is smaller than the general trend of market movement and risk aversion

The article justified the feasibility of an investment project by analysing the performance indicators while taking into account risk and uncertainty of the use of information technologies. The impact of the above calculations of the investment project results is due to the fact that the evaluation of the investment performance depends on the projected cash flows. The purpose of the article is to assess the impact of risks on making investment decisions using information technologies in order to increase the financial security of enterprises. Methodological and practical aspects of risk modelling of the investment project were further developed, using the Monte Carlo method, which allows to construct a model by minimizing data, as well as to maximize the value of data used in the model. This model involves the use of probability theory and random number tables. The results show the distribution of probabilities of the successful project variable and the coefficient of variation of the performance indicator, allowing the investor to take uncertainty into account when making a decision.

With the advent and growth of Islamic banking, various researches have been performed to analyze the performance and mechanisms of regulatory rules of this industry. Due to the special role of banks in the economic systems of countries and the world, significant regulatory and control rules were used. In the meantime, the commitment to implement the rules of the Basel II Capital Accord as the most important international agreement to ensure banking health is of particular importance, and among all the issues raised in this agreement, compliance with the minimum capital adequacy has been considered by many researches. One of the most important questions in this area is whether the Basel method of calculation and the minimum rate (8%) is appropriate for the Islamic banking system? To answer this question, this study has calculated the capital adequacy ratio for Islamic banks of Iran and by modeling its effect on the bank’ profit efficiency, as the most important incentive indicator for banks, has estimated an optimal rate these banks. 

The purpose of the article is to perform stress-testing technologies of the financial stability of an insurance company based on the constructed mathematical model of the insurance company's activity, which would meet the established requirements (adequate reproduction of the main parameters of the insurance company's functioning; taking into account the stochastic nature of insurance processes; flexible management of model parameters describing company's behaviour; the ability to influence the intensity of flows; suitability for algorithmization and construction of computational simulation model. The relevance of this study is due to the need to address the problem of changes and complications, the growing variety of strategies and products implemented by insurance companies. There is a need for innovative methods to assess and monitor the vulnerability of these institutions to various types of risks. One of these methods, which is gaining widespread recognition both among regulators and financial corporations, is stress testing. It has been established that stress testing as a risk management tool is used both to assess the insurance company's readiness for a crisis situation, and to develop a plan of adequate measures to counteract and eliminate its negative impact. The development and application of the proposed mathematical and simulation model of stress testing of the financial stability of the insurance company allows to solve issues of ensuring sufficiency of capital level, control of financial stability and solvency, reliability of efficiency of activities, taking into account the probabilistic nature of insurance activities, various typical insurance risks and time horizons.

The increasing concern of consumers about the quality and safety of agricultural products all over the world has caused organic products to become one of the most popular options for healthy. The increasing trend and consumption of organic agricultural products has led to the increasing growth of the market of these products in the last two decades. Due to the importance of entering and gaining a share of this growing market, this study investigates the factors affecting the international organic products market entry and determines the appropriate strategy for entering it using structural equation modeling. The data of this study was obtained by collecting 90 questionnaires from producers of organic saffron, pistachio, and raisin products in the year 2021 with available sampling method in Khorasan Razavi province. The obtained results indicate that the variables of risk and motivation to enter the international market directly and the production and marketing ownership indirectly and through influencing the motivation to enter the international market, influence the international market entry strategy. Based on this, the appropriate strategy for entering the international market of organic products, indirect, cooperative and non-attendance strategies such as indirect export, contract production and joint investment was obtained. Therefore, it is suggested that the government should remove or reduce the risks caused by sanctions and obstacles to enter the market for the direct presence of organic product producers in international markets.

Volatility and risk measurement are essential parameters in risk management programs that can affect economic activities and public confidence in the stock market. Also, these two are the keys in the studies that connect the stock market, economic growth, and other financial factors. In recent years, due to the instability in the Tehran Stock Exchange, controlling the adverse effects caused by the volatility of stock prices, predicting and modeling price dynamics, and measuring risk have become necessary for the participants in this market. In the present research, the class of hidden Markovian index models of conditional variance Heteroskedasticity (HM-GARCH) is used to predict the volatility of stock prices and accounts of the Tehran Stock Exchange. For a comprehensive review, the models are selected to include the characteristics of volatility clustering, asymmetry in volatility (leverage effect), and heavy tail of stock returns (with t-student distribution). Based on RMSE and AME criteria, the HM-EGARCH-Normal Exponential GARCH model with normal distribution is more effective than other models in predicting stock market volatility. Therefore, leverage is necessary to analyze stock market risks using hidden Markov models, but heavy tail distribution is unnecessary. The results indicate that the HM-EGARCH-Normal model appropriately assesses volatility and improves market transparency and risk management forecasts. Also, the VaR and CVaR market risk assessment post-tests using Kupiec and DQ tests do not show evidence of overestimation or underestimation.

This study aimed to develop an internal control model for the Iranian Social Security Organization with a risk management approach. This exploratory study is applied in terms of objective, and the statistical population comprised 340 employees in the financial department of the Iranian Social Security Organization. The data was collected using interviews and questionnaires, and the hypotheses were tested with inferential statistics and structural equation tests. The results showed that the internal control factors of the Iranian Social Security Organization include the income bank system, the legal obligations system, compensation, the financial bookkeeping system, the movable and immovable property system, the financial management system, and check issuance requirements. The results also showed that the factors affecting internal controls are among the factors influencing risk management. Considering the extent of branches, dimensions, various services including (retirement, disability) and the size and volume of financial operations, as well as the very high budget of the Social Security Organization (for example, in 1401, the budget of the Social Security Organization is 500 thousand billion Rials), there are many factors on the controls Empty and effective risk management. The most important factors affecting the Social Security Organization's internal controls' efficacy are the financial bookkeeping system, Payroll system, And Legal requirements for issuing checks.

With increasing frequency, the developing countries and the people living there are being affected by disasters. More and more often, development efforts are being destroyed. The reason for this trend is their growing vulnerability, which in turn is the result of economic and social development processes, such as the expansion of settlements and agricultural land in risk areas. The economic and social consequences of these disasters for the people in our partner countries last for years. To break and, if possible, reverse this trend, international organizations, governments and NGOs in the developing countries are increasingly upgrading the priority of disaster risk management for policy, and taking concrete preventive measures to reduce the risk to the population. This paper examined the concept of disaster and its management in the light of sustainable development with particular reference to Iran. It enumerated the different human and natural phenomena that could be characterized as disasters. It was discovered that, while hazard and/ or disasters possess anthropogenic origins, their consequences are felt on both human and the physical environments. In all cases, the human tolls have been significant. The paper highlighted the important elements of a typical Disaster Management Information System in Iran. After presenting a typology of disasters in Iran, the paper, advocated for a workable disaster management information system.

A sensitivity analysis of the flood safety of Solaimantangeh dam using a regional climate change simulation is presented. Based on the output of the CCSM (Community Climate Change System Model) general circulation model, the NIRCM (North of Iran Regional Climate Model) computes regional scale output with 50 km spatial resolution and 21 vertical layers. Using the SRES (Special Report Emission Scenario) “B1” Climate Change Scenario when applied to the Tajan river basin, where Solaimantangeh dam is located, NIRCM reduces significantly the bias in Annual Maximum Event total Precipitation (AMEP) & Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation (AMDP) that CCSM shows. The stream flow change scenario is then simulated using SSARR (Stream flow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation) model. A rainfall-runoff model was implemented using precipitation and temperature projected by CCSM and NIRCM. The model demonstrated that average Stream flow would increases 38.7% and the variability would increases 14.3%. This remarkable increase in projected annual maximum flow for the next 20 years (2004-2023) should be a significant negative signal to water resources managers. The results indicate that the number of floods remains almost the same, but that the magnitude of a single flood event and the recovery from it become worse.

Delay is an event that increases the completion time of a part of the project, which is one of the main problems in the executive projects of the country and causes an increase in project costs as well as damages. Project delays pose significant risks to the project that are dangerous for the project to continue. These risks are of particular importance in oil and gas projects. The purpose of this study is to identify and rank the risks related with delays in oil and gas projects. The present study is applied in terms of orientation and quantitative in terms of methodology. The statistical population of the study is managers and experts of risk and delay in oil and gas projects in the country. Among these people,15 people were selected as the sample by judgmental sampling method. For data collection, two questionnaires of expertise and prioritization were used, both of which had validity and reliability. In the first step, the risks associated with project delays were extracted by reviewing project risk and delay articles. In the next step, these risks were screened using the Binominal test.11 risks had a significance coefficient higher than 5% and were excluded from the calculations. The remaining 8 risks were prioritized using the Codas distance technique. According to the data of the relative evaluation matrix and the scores of each risk, the risks of sanctions, inflation, and lawsuits and complaints had the highest priority, respectively. Finally, research proposals were developed based on significant risks.

One of the innovations that has been formed in the insurance industry in recent years is transfer the risk to the capital markets. Today, this possibility is provided by issuing insurance bonds and Catastrophe bonds, which are a most important type of insurance-linked securities (ILS), can redress inefficiency in the insurance industry.Today, more and more Catastrophe (CAT) bonds are being issued worldwide, which is welcomed by investors and insurance companies. On the other hand, traditional insurance solutions to cover the risks of Iran's oil and gas industry is not efficient and sufficient and using CAT bonds to transfer risks of this industry to capital markets is a necessary and inevitable issue.The aim of this research is to identify effective factors for issuing Catastrophe bonds in Iran's oil and gas industry. On this basis and after reviewing the literature through library studies, 33 factors were identified in the form of seven categories, based on the similarities. Then, based on Delphi method, experts were asked to express their opinions through an iterative questionnaire. After take the experts' opinions in every round, the statistics analysis was performed and the Delphi process was stopped in the third round. Based on the results, the number of 32 factors in six categories with the titles Legislation and Amendment of the Rules, Knowledge Management, Process Management, Transparency, Creation and Strengthening of Software Platforms and Cultivation were approved by experts and identified as effective factors for issuance of Cat bonds in Iran's oil and gas industry.