درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

Economic crisis imposes extensive losses on banks and credit institutions, thereby increasing their credit risk and dissolution. In fact, the economic conditions of countries are the major cause of financial stress, the destructive effects of which can greatly be reduced by accurate risk management in the banking system. This study aims to examine stress testing in the Iranian banking system by using the data of Iranian banks from 2008 to 2017. The results in the panel VAR framework and Monte Carlo simulation by using macroeconomic variables and credit risk show that the Iranian banking system is mostly affected by the scenarios of long-term shock in the macroeconomic factors of the country. In other words, changes in one period of the variables have a minimum effect on credit risk. However, a three-period horizon of interest rate and the inflation rate has the maximum effect, while economic growth has the minimum effect on the degree of default in Iranian banks.

 This work was supported by the Academy of Korean Studies of the Republic of Korea in year 2012-2013 (AKS-2010-CAA-2101) Energy security has assumed newfound geopolitical importance at the outset of XXI century (Moran and Russell, 2008). Diminishing fossil fuel supplies have led to fears of energy shortages, while rapid economic and population growth have fuelled the demand for cheap, clean and secure sources of energy. The provision of reliable and affordable energy, once the domain of domestic policy, has emerged as a key concern of policymakers. To ensure energy security, leaders confront a complex set of economic, political, and environmental issues that transcend national boundaries. Should they fail to meet this challenge, energy is one of the few issues in today€™s international system with a distinct possibility to incite conflict between major powers. At the same time, trade in energy resources has the potential to usurp pre-existing economic or cultural ties €“ and overcome deep-seated distrust €“ to create new geopolitical alignments and alliances.      JEL Classification : Q00

As a mechanism to enhance financial system stability and a process that allows banks to change their role from traditional lenders to originators and distributors of loans, securitization reduces the dependence on customer deposits. Also, it expands lending capacity, manages banks credit risk, and transforms illiquid assets into saleable securities. In this research, GMM method in three formats is used for the 16 selected Iranian banks. Results show that real sector growth positively and significantly increase financial stability in the Iranian economy. This is because of the economic scale augmentation and its impact on creating new financial resources. Meanwhile, the non-performing loans ratio significantly diminishes banking stability as well as it lowers banks' capacity to generate revenues from intermediary activities. Moreover, return is affected by the inflationary conditions which heightens revenue making and equity factors in banks' balance sheets. In order to generate higher revenues and gain upper profits, banking resources are occasionally withdrawn to enter other financial markets. Loans to deposits ratio, representing the credit risk in banking systems, denotes that higher risk in credit areas exacerbates financial stability due to the higher probability of risk appetite in generating loans to the general public. Also, security size highlights that although it is expected that securitization augments the financial stability in the banking system, other indicators would also be influential on financial stability. In other words, the higher the security size, the bigger its impact on banking stability. Furthermore, Lending capacity augments as a result of risk management and transforming illiquid assets into saleable securities.