علی سعیدی

The purpose of this study is a new understanding behaviour and net cash flow forecasting. The data of this research contains the daily trial balance for one year, which has been received from 48 bank branches. For this purpose, the optimal model out of 4 models; Geometric Brownie, Arithmetic Brownie, Vasicek and Modified Square Root at three levels of microscopic, mesoscopic and macroscopic have been investigated and the Geometric Brownie model has been approved as the optimal model in microscopic level . The results show that Geometric Brownian Motion model can simulate the net cash flow highly accurate in accordance with the criteria of mean absolute percentage error. also forecasting net cash flow for each under study time series has been done in various forecasting horizons involved 7, 14, 21, 30, 60, 90 and 180 day time period accordance with the criteria of mean absolute percentage error. Also The other results obtained from this study is that according to 8 different prediction accuracy criteria, By increasing the forecast hori-zon, ability of the GBM model in simulation and forecasting the net cash flow de-creases.

Surah At-Tawbah has a variety of subjects and apparently is fragmentary and irregular; but based on the dimension of the situation, which is the same sociological issues and culture of the era of the revelation of the surah; it is understandable and has a coherent meaning with a clear language. Based on the dimension of the situation, it is possible to understand the ignorant styles such as arrogance, breaking the covenant and shifting the forbidden months by the polytheists that result in the revelation of the first part of verses 1 to 38 of this surah, which introduce this culture and its ugliness. For this reason, God and the Prophet (PBUH) acquit this culture. Consequently, it is the duty of Muslims and the Islamic community to seek the acquittal of the polytheists by following the duality (Tawḥīd, Nubuwwah) and not to approach the polytheists under the pretext of kinship. The second part of Surah (120-139) refers to the constant covenant-breaking of the hypocrites and the problems they caused to the Prophet (PBUH) and the Islamic community. Then, in contrast to the ignorant style, by introducing the religious style and its values, God asks the hypocrites and those who have sick hearts to adhere to the style brought by the monotheistic system by the Prophet in order to prepare their guiding grounds for reaching the Hereafter system. Based on the above explanations, the author has studied the role of situation in eliminating the dispersion and semantics of the surah and its relationship with the trinity (Tawḥīd, Nubuwwah and Ma’ād) with a descriptive-analytical method. Among the most important results that this research has achieved is that: The situation in Jacques Berque's order causes the audience to frame the various topics of the verses of the surah and finally to have a coherent mentality towards them and to achieve a deeper understanding.