تحول فناورانه در راهبرد امنیتی و دفاعی کره جنوبی؛ درس گفتارهایی برای ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
مقاله حاضر درصدد بررسی استراتژی دفاعی و امنیتی کره جنوبی بر اساس توان فناورانه باتوجه به تغییر پویایی های امنیتی منطقه به ویژه در شبه جزیره کره و تهدیدات امنیتی نوین به عنوان الگویی برای ایران است. در پژوهش حاضر ضمن بررسی سطح فناورانه ایران، به دنبال پاسخ به این سؤال است که چه مؤلفه هایی بر تحول دفاعی و امنیتی فناورانه کره جنوبی و بازدارندگی فناورانه این کشور در شرق آسیا و ایندوپاسیفیک مؤثر بوده است؟ و تحول فناورانه در پیشبرد بازدارندگی فناورانه در راهبرد دفاعی و امنیتی کره چگونه بوده است؟ بنابر بر فرضیه، به دلیل ظهور فناوری های نوظهور و چالش های فناورانه در حوزه دفاعی - امنیتی و تنش های ژئوپلیتیکی ناشی از تحولات نوین در نظم بین المللی و منطقه ای سبب بازدارندگی فناورانه و تحول دفاعی و امنیتی این کشور شده است. یافته های پژوهش نیز نشان می دهد تغییر الگوهای جنگ و تشدید رقابت برای هژمونی فناوری در میان قدرت های بزرگ، افزایش بی ثباتی در شمال شرق آسیا به دلیل رقابت آمریکا و چین سبب سیالیت نظم بین الملل و موجب تقویت دفاعی فناورانه کره جنوبی شده است. کاهش نیروی انسانی در ارتش، نگرانی در مورد حمله هسته ای و موشکی کره شمالی به همراه افزایش تحرکات چین و روسیه در منطقه امنیتی شبه جزیره کره و ایندوپاسیفیک، باعث شده است تا یون سوک یول در حوزه دفاعی و امنیتی مبتنی بر فناوری (4IR)، بازدارندگی فناورانه چند دامنه ای را ایجاد کند. ماهیت روش پژوهش توصیفی - تحلیلی است و از روش تحلیل داده های کمی و کیفی گردآوری شده از مهم ترین اسناد دفاع ملی و مراکز مطالعاتی امنیتی استفاده شده است.Technological Evolution in South Korea's Security and Defense Strategy; Lessons for Iran
The purpose of this article is to examine South Korea's defense and security strategy based on technological capabilities, taking into account the changing security dynamics of the region, especially the Korean Peninsula, and the new security threats, as a model for Iran. The paper while examining Iran's technological level, using the descriptive-analytical research method, it seeks to answer the following question: what components have been effective in South Korea's technological defense and security development and its technological deterrence in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific? And how has technological development promoted technological deterrence in South Korea's defense and security strategy? According to the hypothesis, the emergence of new technologies and technological challenges in the field of defense and security, as well as geopolitical tensions caused by recent developments in the international order and regional dynamics, have hindered the country's technological deterrence and defense and security development. The results of the research also show that the change in the pattern of warfare and the intensification of competition for technological hegemony, as well as the increase in instability in Northeast Asia, have caused the fluidity of the international order and strengthened South Korea's technological defense. The reduction of military manpower, concerns about North Korea's nuclear and missile attacks, and the increasing movements of China and Russia in the Korean Peninsula and Indo-Pacific security regions have led Yoon Suk Yeol in the field of technology-based defense and security (4IR) to create a multi-domain technological deterrence
Introduction: South Korea is one of the important Asian countries that, over the decades, due to the political-security situation of the Korean Peninsula and its economic and technological advancements, has
experienced significant changes in its defense and security strategy. With the rise of the new Yoon Suk-yeol administration, Seoul's understanding of national interests, the intense security environment, and the shift in military balance caused by complex technological dynamics led to changes in the new president's preferences and ambitions for elevating South Korea's international standing, given the country's immense economic and technological capacities. As a result, South Korea's ambitions to play a more prominent role in regional and global affairs are increasing. Now, looking to the future, Seoul aims to conduct a comprehensive review of national security, including the enhancement of technological expertise in light of emerging threats in the defense sector. Therefore, technological transformation in South Korea's defense and security strategy is a significant issue that is being addressed to understand which factors have influenced South Korea's technological defense and security evolution and its technological deterrence in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific. Subsequently, the requirements and capacities of Iran to adapt to new technological transformations and emerging security threats, especially concerning the regional dynamics surrounding it, will be discussed.
Research Question: what components have been effective in South Korea's technological defense and security development and its technological deterrence in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific? And how has technological development promoted technological deterrence in South Korea's defense and security strategy?
Research Hypothesis: the emergence of new technologies and technological challenges in the field of defense and security, as well as geopolitical tensions caused by recent developments in the international order and regional dynamics, have hindered the country's technological deterrence and defense and security development
Methodology and Theoretical Framework: The concept of deterrence, in a simple definition, means convincing enemies to refrain from certain behaviors by projecting the costs that would outweigh the benefits. Accordingly, the first, second, and third waves of deterrence literature, which emerged during the Cold War, were almost exclusively focused on deterring high-intensity aggression, including the potential use of nuclear weapons alongside large-scale conventional warfare. During the Cold War, deterrence with nuclear weapons, under the shadow of vast arsenals, aimed primarily at preventing a major war and was the main objective of national security and the focal point of superpowers' efforts to manage global or regional security. After the Cold War, the most significant development is that nuclear deterrence has been marginalized. In the 1990s, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of non-traditional threats such as terrorism, the fourth wave of deterrence literature emerged, focusing on the question of whether deterrence would provide an effective response to such new threats (Sweijs and Zilincik, 2020,p. 130; Morgan, 2003, p. 239-247). In this context, strategic focus shifted towards asymmetric deterrence, emphasizing non-state actors and the role of non-
military tools in deterrence. However, with the increasing complexity of the international system and the transformation in the nature and dimensions of warfare, especially with the rise of artificial intelligence, we are witnessing the emergence of the fifth wave of deterrence. The fifth wave encompasses a set of approaches that involve the use of diplomatic, economic, political, and military tools to counter non-kinetic, cyber, terrorist, and hybrid threats (Tsetsos,2020, p.4).
The emergence of commercial technologies in the 2000s, known as the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), has gradually extended these technologies into the military domain, shaping the characteristics of the fifth wave of deterrence in line with these developments. Its core is multi-domain deterrence across cyber, space, air, land, and sea, aligned with the complexity and fluidity of the operational environment. Overall, the fourth wave reflects the nature of asymmetric threats, and fourth- and fifth-generation deterrence is dynamically evolving in response to new technologies and political and social changes. Moreover, these strategies alone cannot guarantee the security of nations and must be accompanied by diplomatic, economic, and cultural policies to help achieve regional and global security and stability.
Results and discussion: Artificial intelligence, big data analysis, and conventional technologies can disrupt nuclear deterrence in various ways. These technologies significantly enhance counterforce capabilities and make the prospect of low-casualty nuclear strikes more plausible, potentially lowering political and normative barriers to nuclear attacks. Tasks performed by artificial intelligence are carried out at superhuman speeds with higher levels of accuracy and reliability, for durations far beyond human endurance. An intelligent command system (such as South Korea's 0.4 program) with functions like reasoning, analysis, prediction, decision-making, and more, can significantly enhance the accuracy and effectiveness of military command activities and enable the effective operationalization of network empowerment and high-speed autonomous weapons for cyber deterrence and electronic warfare (Cuihong, 2019, pp. 66-69). Accordingly, the Yoon administration has designed the Defense 0.4 program in response to security challenges.
The 0.4 program is part of the long-term strategy outlined in the Defense Technology Planning (2023-2037) document, which, by identifying South Korea's weaknesses, establishes a substantial technological upgrade in South Korea's defense and security strategy by 2037, based on competition for technological hegemony (Defense Technology Planning 2023-2037). Currently, South Korea has formulated its Defense 0.4 program, focusing on technological innovation from the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). This program develops in five stages, during which, by actively utilizing South Korea’s strengths in science and 4IR technologies, the South Korean military will be transformed into a massive hub of artificial intelligence science and technology, realizing cross-domain deterrence with advanced technologies (4IR) by integrating cyber, space, air, land, sea, and electromagnetic domains. These stages include: 1- The need for implementation, 2- Concept, 3- Focus and implementation tasks, 4- Implementation strategy, and 5- Expectations.
Technological components influencing the transformation of South Korea's defense and security strategy:
1-5. Shifts in warfare patterns and the intensification of competition for technological hegemony.
2-5. Countering North Korean nuclear and missile attacks.
Conclusion: The emergence of Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies in an era of uncertainty and the design of cross-domain deterrence in line with new technological developments are considered necessities and consequences of the complexity of the international system, which in turn has led to competition for technological hegemony. The technological competition among major powers in the defense and security sectors has compelled South Korea to pursue a mid-term program called "Innovation 0.4" in its defense strategy. The establishment of a strategic deterrence command within this program demonstrates South Korea's determination to create and enhance multi-domain technological deterrence, effectively countering North Korea, Russia's moves, and to a lesser extent, China. South Korea's Indo-Pacific strategy, introduced for the first time during Yoon Suk-yeol’s administration, marks a turning point and long-term vision that reflects a shift in strategic deterrence depth from the Korean Peninsula to the Indo-Pacific. In response to the political and security conditions in the region and the rise of emerging technologies, South Korea has technologically transformed its deterrence to adapt to new complexities. It is recommended that Iran also allocate more budget to research and development and focus more on developing its defense industry based on smart systems such as artificial intelligence and the Fourth Industrial Revolution to better align with the complexities and uncertainties of its regional environment.
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