سید حسین میرجلیلی

Industrial investment in Iran, especially in the wake of sanctions’ intensification in the 2010s, decreased significantly. The government implemented fiscal policy which has been associated with uncertainty. In this paper, using a dynamic panel model and generalized method of moments, we examined the effect of fiscal policy uncertainty on investment in 24 industrial groups in Iran over the period 2002-2020. The results indicated that the growth of fiscal level shock,resulted in a low but positive effect on investment directly. However,the coefficient of cross effect between the growth of fiscal level shock and the fiscal policy uncertainty undermined the positive effect on industrial investment. The government has had two effects on industrial investment indirectly through the demand side shock. By creating demand, it has had a positive effect on industrial investment with the cross effect between the growth of the fiscal level shock and industrial sales. However, on the other hand, the growth of the fiscal level shock has been associated with the creation and growth of fiscal policy uncertainty, so that the cross effect between the growth of fiscal policy uncertainty and the growth of industrial sales on industrial investment shows a high negative coefficient. The results of these two effects suggest that due to high uncertainty,the indirect government effect on investment in 24 industrial groups is negative, which happens through the demand-side shock. Moreover, the growth of fiscal policy uncertainty, sanctions, and interest rates, respectively, have had the most adverse effect on investment in 24 industrial groups in Iran.

By utilizing the new Keynesian stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper examines the effects of credit easing policy on macroeconomic variables with or emphasizing on production. For this purpose, a model has been design including 5 sectors of household, enterprises, banks, government and central bank. Considering the dominance of fiscal policy over monetary policy in the Iranian economy, the integrated constraint of the government and the central bank has been used. The model has been estimated using Bayesian method and quarterly time series data during 1991 to 2017. The results of Impulse Response Function show that implementation of this policy has increased consumption, investment, government spending and ultimately production, which indicates the effectiveness of this unconventional monetary policy to get the economy out of recession. Also, in response to the positive impulse of the central bank’s credit line to banks and the negative impulse of legal reserves, bank facilities increase, which is in line with theoretical expectations. The impact of the negative impulse of interbank market rate has also led to an increase in production credits. 

This paper examines the gap between marginal cost and the price of 22 manufacturing industries in Iran at ISIC 2-digit level and 32 industries at a 3-digit level during 1995-2015 compared to selected countries. It examines the gap by using the Hall-Roeger model. We found that in garments, basic chemicals, non-metallic mining, and refined petroleum products, the price and marginal cost difference are high and in tobacco industries are low. In 3 out of 22 industries at ISIC 2- digit level and in 11 out of 32 industries at 3-digit level, Iranian industries have higher markups and a significant gap between price and marginal cost than Japan, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Also from 32 industries in ISIC 3-digit level and 22 industries in 2-digit level, Iran has the lowest mark-up in the tobacco industry with 1.03 and in chemical products with 2,33, has the highest markup. JEL Classification:   , , 

During the last three decades, financial sanctions have been imposed on Iran by the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations Security Council. This paper aims at estimating the effect of financial sanctions on the import of capital and intermediate goods in Iran, which was carried out for two independent time periods. The first period (2010-2013) includes multilateral financial sanctions, and the second period (2016-2019) includes multilateral sanctions and the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA. We examined the impact using the difference-in-difference (DID) method. The results of the first period indicate that the decrease in the imports of capital and intermediate goods in Iran depends more on the countries that "provided the sanctions plan" than the countries that did not provide the sanctions plan, because the coefficient of dummy variable for implementation in the random effects model is statistically significant. The negative effect of 0.007 on imports shows that the effect is weak, because this group of countries behaved differently. In the second period, the random effects model is statistically significant. In this model, the negetive effect of 0.22 on imports indicates a significant effect. Therefore, the reduction of Iran's imports in this period depends more on the countries that provided the sanctions plan than the countries that did not provide the plan.

In the decade of 1979-1988, there was no development plan in Iran. During 1989-2022, six development plans implemented in Iran’s economy. The assessment of development plans conducted based on the performance and the results of economic indicators over the period. Economic Growth over the course of development plans was volatile. There has been a double-digit inflation rate over the course of the development plans and Productivity and the distribution of income indices were volatile. The challenges of planning in Iran include lack of common understanding on basic concepts of development plans, challenges of comprehensive plan, essential change due to external shocks, time span, parallel initiatives, coordination failure and lack of independent evaluation entity.