شناسایی آینده های محتمل توسعه فرم شهری با رویکرد سناریونویسی (نمونه موردی: حوزه شمال غرب شهر مشهد) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
تلاطم و وقوع رخدادهای شگفتی ساز موجب وارد شدن تکانه های عظیم به شهرها شده است؛ به گونه ای که رشد و توسعه فرم شهری روندی شتابان گرفته است. در چنین فضایی که شهرها همواره در معرض تغییر است، بهره گیری از ابزارهای سناریونویسی برای برنامه ریزان شهری امری ضروری است. حوزه شمال غرب مشهد یکی از حوزه های هفت گانه طرح جامع این شهر است. از ویژگی های این حوزه می توان به میزان زیاد و شتابان ساخت و ساز اشاره کرد. بررسی اجمالی سیمای کلی هر یک از منطقه های حوزه نشان می دهد که شرایط به نسبت متفاوتی در منطقه ها جاری است. به طور مشخص، سؤال پژوهش پاسخ به پرسش «سناریوهای آتی توسعه فرم شهری در حوزه شمال غرب مشهد چیست؟» است. روش پژوهش حاضر از حیث هدف، کاربردی و از حیث روش، توصیفی-تحلیلی است. همچنین، در این پژوهش برای جمع آوری داده ها از روش های اسنادی و میدانی و برای تحلیل اطلاعات از روش دلفی و سناریونویسی اسمیک پراب اکسپرت استفاده شده است. بر مبنای نتایج به دست آمده از سناریونویسی، سناریوی سوم با بیش از 17 درصد، بیشترین احتمال وقوع را دارد. بر اساس سناریو سوم، چهارگمانه به وقوع پیوسته و تنها یک گمانه رخ نداده است.Identifying Possible Futures of Urban Form Development with a Scenario Planning Approach (Case Study: Northwest District of Mashhad City)
Turbulence and unexpected events have significantly impacted cities, accelerating the process of urban growth and development. In this ever-changing urban landscape, utilization of scenario planning tools is crucial for urban planners. The northwest district of Mashhad is a key area within the master plan of the city. Notably, this area is characterized by rapid and extensive construction. The following research question guided this study: "What are the potential future scenarios for urban development in the northwest area of Mashhad?" The research was purposefully applied in terms of methodology and employed a descriptive and analytical approach. Both documentary and field methods were utilized for data collection, while the Delphi method and Smicprob Expert scenario planning were employed for data analysis. The results of scenario development indicated that the third scenario held the highest probability at 17%. According to this scenario, 4 events were continuous with only one event not occurring.Keywords: Possible Futures, Scenario Planning, Urban Form, Northwest District of Mashhad. Introduction:The occurrence of unexpected events and turbulence has had a profound impact on cities, accelerating the process of urban growth and development. In this dynamic environment where cities are constantly subject to change, the use of scenario planning tools is indispensable for urban planners. The northwest area of Mashhad is recognized as one of the seven key areas within the master plan of the city. Notably, this area is characterized by a high and rapid rate of construction. A comprehensive overview of each area revealed relatively distinct conditions in the current areas. Specifically, the research question was as follows: "What are the potential future scenarios for urban form development in the northwest area of Mashhad?". The current research aimed to employ scenario-based planning and methods, particularly utilizing Smik Probe Expert's scenario planning, to identify potential futures for the development of the urban form in the northwestern area of Mashhad. Therefore, the primary objective of this research was to generate scenarios for the development of the urban form in the northwest area of Mashhad. Methodology:The current research employed a purposeful approach and utilized descriptive and analytical methods. Drawing from the field of future research, the study adopted the French futuristic scenario writing approach and utilized documentary methods (including books, articles, and urban development plans), as well as field methods (such as observation and structured questionnaires targeting an elite audience group) to gather data. The statistical population for the target group consisted of 25 individuals and the snowball method was employed to select the sample size. Additionally, the Delphi method and Smik Prob Expert scenario writing were utilized for data analysis. Research Findings:Scenario writing provides a means to delineate various potential futures. In this study, the Smic Probe Expert scenario writing method was employed to identify future scenarios for the study area. Through this method, 32 potential scenarios were identified, resulting in 15 feasible scenarios. Results and Discussion:The primary objective of scenario writing is not only to forecast, but also to broaden vision and gain insight into the future for making more informed decisions. According to the findings, the 3rd scenario had the highest probability of occurrence, exceeding 17%. Following that, the 18th scenario held a probability of occurrence of over 10%. The 2nd, 25th, 10th, and 1st scenarios were ranked 3rd to 6th, respectively. Based on the 3rd scenario, speculations included the "occurrence of population movements and migration of the less privileged to other areas due to increased rent prices," "intensification of land exploitation (increased density and compression) and adaptive changes in infrastructure," "development of specialized functions based on land prices and the road network," "acceptance of urban and suburban tourism and commercial functions due to market trends and available spaces," and "expansion of specific residential and activity patterns within the city limits to prevent the formation and expansion of marginalization in the North-West Development Corridor." The only hypothesis that did not materialize was the "disruption of the fabric and division of the area into two types of developed fabrics (centered on urban and suburban tourist and commercial centers) and undeveloped fabrics." In essence, the potential future of urban form development in the northwest region presented a "challenging yet hopeful" outlook. Conclusion:In the foreseeable future of the area, the trend towards investing in urban and extra-urban tourism and commercial functions had intensified due to rising land and housing prices, market dynamics, and the presence of large vacant lands. Additionally, with the ongoing population growth and a shortage of housing, a significant increase in rental rates was expected, posing challenges for residents and tenants in the area, particularly those in the middle-income bracket. However, a promising aspect was the absence of growth in informal settlements located in the northern region, primarily attributed to the development of specific residential patterns, such as garden villas, which effectively mitigated the potential for marginalization. The histogram of the sensitivity analysis indicated that the most significant value was associated with the scenario of "disruption of the fabric and division of the area into two types of developed fabrics (centered on urban and extra-urban tourism and commercial centers) and undeveloped fabrics."