شناسایی عوامل موثر بر ریسک گریزی افراد در ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
ریسک و نااطمینانی نقش مهمی در تصمیم های اقتصادی بازی می کنند. از آنجایی که نگرش های متفاوت نسبت به ریسک منجر به انتخاب های متفاوت می شود؛ از این رو، آگاهی از عوامل تعیین کننده این ترجیحات برای درک و پیش بینی رفتار افراد بسیار مهم است. هدف اصلی این پژوهش بررسی اثر برخی از عوامل موثر بر نگرش افراد به ریسک (درجه ریسک گریزی) با تاکید بر خوش بینی و صبوری (نرخ ترجیح زمانی) افراد است. در این پژوهش به منظور گردآوری اطلاعات از پرسشنامه استفاده شده است. جامعه آماری پژوهش، کشور ایران است و تعداد نمونه برگزیده 304 نفر از افرادی هستند که در کشور ایران زندگی می کنند و از طریق نمونه گیری تصادفی انتخاب شده اند. روش تحقیق، مدل رگرسیون چندمتغیره است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می دهد که متغیرهای خوش بینی و درآمد، اثر منفی معنی دار و سن، اثر مثبت معنی دار بر ریسک گریزی دارند. این در حالی است که صبوری، اثر معنی داری بر ریسک گریزی ندارد.Identifying the Factors Affecting the Risk Aversion of Individuals in Iran
Risk and uncertainty are key factors in making economic decisions. Since individual attitudes towards risk can greatly influence choices, it is crucial to understand the determinants of such preferences in order to predict and comprehend individuals’ behavior. The present study aimed to investigate the impact of several factors on individuals’ attitudes towards risk, specifically the degree of risk aversion, by examining individuals’ optimism and patience (time preference). The study used a questionnaire to collect data from a sample of 304 individuals in Iran selected through random sampling. The research method was a multivariate regression model. The findings indicated that both optimism and income have a significant negative effect on risk aversion, while age has a significant positive effect. Furthermore, the study found that patience does not have a significant impact on risk aversion. Introduction Risk and uncertainty are critical factors that heavily influence most economic decisions, including investment, education, employment, and the decision to buy a house or insurance. Such decisions involve an element of risk, so they are highly influenced by individuals’ attitudes towards risk. In developing countries, such as Iran, most individuals typically experience unstable incomes, limited access to insurance, and possess few assets to cushion the impact of severe economic shocks. As a result, individuals in these circumstances are more exposed to risk, and these factors can significantly influence their attitudes towards risk. Understanding the determinants of these preferences is crucial to comprehending and predicting people’s behavior, as different attitudes towards risk lead to different choices. The present study was to examine how certain factors, such as optimism and patience (time preference rate), influence individuals’ attitudes towards risk. In addition, socio-economic variables were included as control variables to account for their potential impact. Materials and Methods To gather data on individuals’ degrees of risk aversion, optimism, and patience, this study used a questionnaire based on internationally recognized surveys. The model was then estimated by the general multivariate regression through the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. Results and Discussion The descriptive information related to demographic variables is presented in Table 1. Table 1: Frequency distribution of demographic s Variable Variable level Frequency Relative Frequency Gender Male 155 49 Female 160 51 Total 315 100 Marital status Single 219 70 Married 96 30 Total 315 100 Age Less than 20 years 16 5 Between 20-30 years 172 55 Between 30-40 years 100 32 Above 40 years 27 8 Total 315 100 Level of education High school 4 1 Diploma–BA 99 31 BA–MA 139 44 MA–PhD 73 23 Total 315 100 Employment status Unemployed 51 16 Retired 1 0 Housewife 27 9 School student 7 2 University student 131 42 Employed 98 31 Total 315 100 The economic situation Income below 1 million Tomans 112 36 Income between 1–3 million Tomans 106 37 Income between 3–6 million Tomans 63 20 Income above 6 million Tomans 34 11 Total 315 100 Source: research findings Model Estimation The OLS method was used to estimate the model. Table 2. Model estimation results RA The dependent variable probability t-stat Coefficients Variables 0.00 -3.71 -0.027 * * * Optimism 0.002 3.07 0.0003 * * * Wealth 0.000 -63.6 0.29 * * * Income 0.418 -0.81 -0.017 Patience 0.024 -26.2 -0.19 * * Gender 0.022 2.31 0.23 * * Single 0.000 5.63 0.044 * * * Age 0.215 1.24 0.06 Education 0.000 75.5 2.16 * * * _Cons 29.13 F(8,295) 304 Number of obs 0.000 Prob > F 0.44 R-squared 0.63 Root MSE 0.42 Adj R-squared * The coefficient is significant at 10 % level, * * The coefficient is significant at 5 % level and *** The coefficient is significant at 1 % level. Source: research calculations The Brush-Pagan and VIF test show that there is no heteroskedasticity and collinearity at estimated residuals. As shown in the table, as the individual’s level of optimism increases, their degree of risk aversion decreases, which is consistent with previous research conducted by Felten and Gibson (2014) and Duhman et al. (2018). In addition, the study found that wealth has a direct and significant impact on risk aversion in Iran, which aligns with the findings of Agassi et al. (2015) and Qanbili (2016). However, this result contradicts the research conducted by Ronald and Grable (2010), and therefore, the effect of wealth on risk aversion warrants further discussion and reflection. Previous research suggests that there is a likelihood that the effect of wealth on risk aversion in Iran may be opposite to that observed in other countries. This could potentially be attributed to errors in measuring wealth In Iran, where information regarding individuals’ assets and wealth is often unclear. In this respect, the present study relied on indicators such as car and house ownership and their estimated values, which were self-reported by the participants and might be subject to bias. The study findings indicated that income has a significant and negative impact on risk aversion in Iran, which is aligned with previous research conducted by Wright (2012; 2014) and Shah et al. (2020). Moreover, it was found that gender has a significant effect on risk aversion, with females being more risk-averse than males. This finding is consistent with Banir and Newbert (2016), Hosseinnejad and Haddadi (2016), and Mohammadi-Majed (2018). The findings also revealed that age has a significantly positive impact on risk aversion in Iran, which is in line with the results of Dankers and Van Suest (1999) and Menadia et al. (2016). Finally, the results showed that time preference rate and education do not have a significant impact on risk aversion in Iran. Conclusion This research examined the impact of several factors on individuals’ risk aversion in Iran. The investigation of the research hypotheses demonstrated that variables such as optimism and income have a significantly inverse relationship with risk aversion, with higher levels leading to decreased risk aversion. Wealth and age have a significantly positive impact on risk aversion, with higher levels leading to increased risk aversion. Furthermore, the variables of time preference rate and education were found to have no significant effect on risk aversion in Iran. The study also found that married individuals are more risk-averse than single ones, and females are more risk-averse than males. The results indicated that young people, males, and the individuals with higher incomes and lower wealth tend to accept risk more readily. The findings can provide fresh insight for investment consulting and insurance companies in Iran.
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