امیرمنصور طهرانچیان

One of the goals of the government is to increase the competitiveness of domestic firms to export goods and services. Moreover, the role of exports in many economic sectors has been emphasized. There are two essential requirements for developing non-oil exports: first, the presence of firms in export markets and increasing their competitiveness; second, the survival of them in international markets. This paper assesses the impact of leverage on export survival by using the data of 16 Iranian manufacturing firms from 1999-2018. These companies operate in the agricultural and food industry and are indexed in the stock exchange market. Based on Cox semi-parametric model estimation, the main result is that leverage harms export survival.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of exchange rate misalignment on inflation persistence. For this purpose, Vector Auto Regression method and Markov Switching model is used for quarterly data during 1989:4 -2014:3. The results show that, the impact of liquidity growth and exchange rate misalignment on inflation persistence is positive. On the other hand, GDP growth has a negative effect on inflation persistence. By Markov Switching model the nonlinear relationship between variables was investigated; based on Markov Switching model, quarterly inflationary environment (inflation regime) were extracted for economy of Iran, and the results show three different regimes for quarterly inflation. Markov model findings are consistent with VAR model findings. Results also show that, the impact of exchange rate misalignment on stable inflation regime is positive and the impact of exchange rate misalignment on unstable inflation regime is negative. JEL Classifications: F31, E3, D31, C22, H5

EXTENDED ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION Exchange rate is a variable transferring international economic shocks to domestic economy. In countries like Iran which are experiencing a high inflation and whose GDP as well as consumption expenditures are mostly dependent on imports and foreign capital flows, exchange rate changes and its effects need to be carefully monitored by policy makers and economic researchers. Considering the importance of inflation in the theoretical discussions and the high inflation rate in some developing countries, the effect of exchange rate on inflation has attracted economists interested in monetary issues and international economics.Nonlinear behavior in the exchange rate effect on inflation can provide false estimates of exchange rate coefficient when the econometric model is estimated linearly. In such a circumstance, we can accommodate cases when the inflation condition and its rate affect economic factors in response to an exchange rate shock. Indeed, domestic prices may not be sensitive to an exchange rate shock due to a low and stable inflation. However, they may respond wildly to a similar shock when inflation is above some significant thresholds.Although studies have mostly focused on measuring the extent of exchange rate effect on price levels, we believet that investigating the possible existence of one or more thresholds in exchange rate effect is important, because the reaction of monetary policymakers may somehow depend on the extent of exchange rate effect with respect to one (or more) threshold value(s). For instance, policymakers might not take care of the exchange rate fluctuations below a certain level, but as soon as it crosses such a level, they believe it damages the economy and the country welfare, thus triggering some intervention in the currency market. METHODOLOGY A reason for the non-linear response of inflation is the non-linear nature of exchange rate trend. In fact, geometrically, among all the time paths of exchange rate, the probability of a linear path between the two time points is very weak. The effect consequence of all determinants of the exchange rate is displayed in its changes. Here are two important points to note. First, the cross-effects of exchange rate determinants can influence the impact of each determinant. Second, the importance of currency, especially in developing countries, and its key role between the foreign exchange and financial markets, has made the exchange rate an intelligent variable, which corrects mistakes at the next rate through the learning process. Hence, the course of exchange rate over time is expected to be nonlinear.The purpose of the present paper is to the test a nonlinear model estimating the response of inflation to real effective exchange rate in Iran. In order to examine threshold effects of exchange rate on inflation in Iran, following Posedel & Tica (2009), pattern was used:where inflation π is a function of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER). The variable  is a dummy variable:  if the REER () is equal or bigger than the threshold () and  if the REER () is smaller than threshold (). FINDINGS Finding based on time series data for the period 1971-2017 and Threshold Regression (TR) model indicates that real effective exchange rate of 6160.27 Rials has been applied as a threshold value. In other words, based on the above threshold value, the estimated model shows the exchange rate coefficient has increased somewhat from the first to the second regime.CONCLUSION Considering the fact that preserving the value of the national currency is one of the most important tasks of central banks and to control inflation, it seems necessary to give the due attention to exchange rate and its threshold impacts when planning, designing and implementing monetary and exchange policies. The results of this study suggests a policy guideline, namely, that, in order to limit the damaging effects of inflation on the economy and household welfare, monetary policymakers in Iran must restrain the foreign exchange shocks.

In a situation where the country's banking system is vulnerable, the behavior of depositors based on their assessment of the banks' risk level can lead to an increase in the probability of systemic crises and instability of the banking network. Recently, network theory and agent-based simulation are used to investigate complex banking systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a new computational method that studies economic phenomena by representing the behavior of individuals and agents. Using this approach, the present study evaluates the phenomenon of bank runs and the effect of deposit insurance on the country's banking network. The agents in this ABM include banks, central bank, firms and depositors. Banks and depositors are intelligent agents that operate on an adaptive learning model. This research was conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of depositors' behavior on the banking network and the safety policy of deposit insurance based on the balance sheets of 25 banks that are members of the Iranian interbank market during the years 2006 to 2019. We find that when depositors act strategically, bank operations occur and banks choose adaptive strategies with lower capital adequacy ratios (CARs). Also, our findings are that the safety of the banking network through deposit insurance has not been significantly successful in reducing the risk of contagion in the system.

In the present study, the role of quantitative easing on the stability of financial markets in Iran has been analyzed from the quarterly data of 2006-2021 using the econometric model with vector error correction model (VECM). To estimate the model from some observable variables, the effects of quantitative easing on financial market variables, including (liquidity volume, capital adequacy rate, credits granted to the private sector by banks, bank deposit interest rate, stock market index and exchange rate) were estimated. The data was extracted from the official website of the Securities and Exchange Organization and the Central Bank. In VECM models, the estimation was done in both short-term and long-term periods with the aid of Eviews software. The findings of the research, based on the estimation of long-term and short-term relationships, show that quantitative easing has a positive and significant effect on the stability of financial markets. With the MP1 index increasing by one percent, the Financial Market Stability Index increased by 4.157 percent.