Journal of Money and Economy

The daily unofficial exchange rate is crucial role in economic agents' decision-making and expectations in Iran. Hence, policymakers have tried to manage the unofficial market by promoting the official exchange rates as a leading price. In this regard, they have established official platforms for foreign exchange transactions. This study investigates the causal relationship between exchange rates discovered on the platforms and unofficial exchange rates by employing the Hong time-varying causality test based on the DCC-MGARCH method. Empirical results show a unilateral causal effect between the unofficial and official exchange rates. The instantaneous causality test results show an instantaneous unilateral causality from unofficial to official exchange rate over the whole period. However, the reverse is only found for some special sub-periods, such as when the extent of sanctions decreases, and the possibility of the Central Bank's intervention increases.

This paper focuses on the fragmentation of the production stages in a related production process. Comparing alternative technologies that produce similar goods, one with fewer production stages and the other with a greater number requires a holistic perspective for the entire production sequence. What matters is not only the strength of production links but also the length of the links, determined by the number of production stages. In this study, using the Inter-Country Input-Output table (ICIO) including Iran in 2016, We quantify the production status of 42 activities for 68 countries and the rest of the world, with a focus on the Iranian economy. To achieve this, we concentrate on the global output supply chain and input demand chains, specifically considering Iran. We use the output upstreamness (OU) measure and input downstreamness (ID) measure to quantitatively determine the relative positions of Iran's economic activities along the global output supply chain and input demand chain, respectively. This study provides insights into countries with the highest and lowest IDs globally, attributing them to industrial and agricultural activities, respectively. Iran's lower ID is explained by its role as a main supplier of natural resources, particularly in activities like oil and natural gas extraction.

This study aimed to investigate the performance of diverse stock market indices on the Tehran Stock Exchange during two distinct phases: a boom from September 2022 to December 2022 and a recession from December 2022 to September 2022 in the foreign exchange market. The results of this study diverged from the anticipated outcomes and show that by using dynamic conditional beta and conditional Treynor ratio during the period of exchange rate boom, export-oriented companies such as metals and chemicals in the Tehran Stock Exchange did not perform better than non-export-oriented companies such as Insurance and medicine. While it is always believed that export-oriented firms outperform the others when the Rial depreciates.

In a situation where the country's banking system is vulnerable, the behavior of depositors based on their assessment of the banks' risk level can lead to an increase in the probability of systemic crises and instability of the banking network. Recently, network theory and agent-based simulation are used to investigate complex banking systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a new computational method that studies economic phenomena by representing the behavior of individuals and agents. Using this approach, the present study evaluates the phenomenon of bank runs and the effect of deposit insurance on the country's banking network. The agents in this ABM include banks, central bank, firms and depositors. Banks and depositors are intelligent agents that operate on an adaptive learning model. This research was conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of depositors' behavior on the banking network and the safety policy of deposit insurance based on the balance sheets of 25 banks that are members of the Iranian interbank market during the years 2006 to 2019. We find that when depositors act strategically, bank operations occur and banks choose adaptive strategies with lower capital adequacy ratios (CARs). Also, our findings are that the safety of the banking network through deposit insurance has not been significantly successful in reducing the risk of contagion in the system.

Providing financial services for social projects represents corporate social responsibility (CSR), because it indicates ethical commitment for creating better social environment. It improves public image and loyalty of customers, increases the commercial value of the trademark, promote public trust, create confidence of the beneficiaries, and attract valuable resources by the corporate. Corporates have realized that they are responsible for the society in which they operate. We examined the impact of CSR on the efficiency and profitability of banks. The statistical population of the research is 16 banks listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during the period 2014-2018. Four variables represent efficiency and profitability. Also, six variables included in the model as control variables. The results indicated a positive and significant effect of social responsibility on the efficiency and profitability of the banks, so that the CSR has most effect on the return on assets, net profit margin and return on equity respectively.

The purpose of this article is to simulate the behavior pattern of shareholders in the Iran’s capital market according to the monetary policies of the Central Bank of Iran. The research method in the first stage was qualitative (interview) and in the second part it was quantitative (statistical and inferential tests). According to the purpose of the research, the research method was of fundamental-applied type and based on the research method of survey type. The statistical population of the research consists of the shareholders of the Tehran Stock Exchange, whose number was about 650 stock companies until the end of the fiscal year 2023. Semi-structured interviews with experts of this market have been used to identify model indicators. Then, by coding the data obtained from the interviews, a research questionnaire was designed. Finally, to extract the model from the factor-based model (ABM) using the exploratory factor analysis method, Netlogo software was used for simulation. The investigated period can be divided into three periods without applying a targeted monetary policy to control the behavior of shareholders. The first period is the period when economic variables such as exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate are constant. In this situation, the number of buyers in the capital market has increased and purchases have taken place in this market (in this purchase, the share of emotional buyers is higher). In the second period, when inflation decreases and the interest rate remains the same, the number of shareholders in the market is reduced, but purchases still occur, but the share of volatile buyers is higher in this period. In the third period, when the inflation rate and the interest rate both increase, with the greater effect of expansionary policies (increasing the volume of money) than the increase in the interest rate, the number of shareholders and the amount of purchases increase. The study of the behavior of shareholders and their buying and selling in this market indicates that the profit from the buying and selling of volatile shareholders in the period under review is more than that of emotional shareholders and shareholders who hold their shares for a while in order to gain profit with a long-term view. The results indicate that due to uncertainty, this market, which has the nature of long-term financing, has lost its function and the shareholders' view of this market is short-term profit.