تأثیر ابتکار کمربند و راه بر همگرایی اقتصادی اتحادیه اروپا (2010-2022) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
اتحادیه اروپا در مسیر توسعه حوزه های مرکزی و شرقی خود با رقابت چین روبه رو شده است که دارای سیاست هایی مشابه و اهدافی متفاوت است. چین در تعامل خود از انعطاف و آزادی عمل بیشتری نسبت به اتحادیه اروپا برخوردار است. از نتایج اجرای ابتکار کمربند و راه چین و موافقت نامه 1+14 با کشورهای مرکزی و شرق اروپا، افزایش محسوس حجم مبادلات تجاری میان چین و این کشورهاست که این امر تأثیر منفی بر همکاری های درون اتحادیه اروپا و همچنین با کشورهای متقاضی عضویت در این اتحادیه داشته است. بر این مبنا می توان این پرسش را طرح کرد که ابتکار کمربند و راه چگونه بر همگرایی اقتصادی اتحادیه اروپا تأثیر گذاشته است؟ در پاسخ این فرضیه مطرح است که در راستای سیاست «به غرب برو» جمهوری خلق چین از طریق انعقاد موافقت نامه 1+14، حجم تجارت و میزان سرمایه گذاری خارجی چین در منطقه افزایش یافته است و بر واگرایی اقتصادی در اتحادیه اروپا دامن زده است. برای آزمون این فرضیه از نظریه کانتوری و اشپیگل بهره گرفته شده است. روش پژوهش نیز بر اساس روش ترکیبی تحلیل سیاستگذاری و اقتصادسنجی است. دستاوردهای مقاله حاکی از آن است که پروژه های زیرساختی و تجاری ابتکار کمربند و راه سبب کاهش جذابیت طرح ها و پاداش های اتحادیه اروپا شده و بر واگرایی اقتصادی دامن زده است. به عبارتی اختلاف های اقتصادی بین کشورهای اتحادیه اروپا در بازه زمانی 2010-2022 افزایش یافته است و نابرابری در دسترسی به سرمایه گذاری و منابع فناوری، این کشورها را تحت تأثیر ابتکار کمربند و راه، به همگرایی اقتصادی با چین سوق داده است.The Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the Economic Integration of the European Union (2010-2022)
IntroductionIn 1996, China launched a long-term modernization plan aimed at promoting the economic development of its western regions, aligned with the Go West campaign and the Made in China 2025 initiative. These strategies were designed to elevate China's global standing in high-tech industries, while the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), introduced in 2013 by President Xi Jinping, sought to establish transit corridors for goods and services across Asia, Africa, and Europe. Together with China's peaceful rise strategy, these initiatives aim to position China among the world's top powers by 2025. A critical component in implementing the BRI is the 14+1 Agreement, a framework for cooperation between China and several Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC). Originally proposed as the 16+1 in 2011, it became the 17+1 in 2018 with Greece's inclusion, and was later reduced to 14+1 following Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia exit in 2021 and 2022, respectively. The primary objective of this Agreement is to enhance regional cooperation and facilitate significant Chinese investments in the industries and infrastructure of CEEC. Under this framework, China has committed to undertake infrastructure projects, such as upgrading and developing ports, communication networks, bridges, and railway lines. According to what was mentioned, the main goal of this research is to answer the following question: “how the Belt and Road Initiative has affected the economic integration of the European Union”. In response, the research hypothesis is proposed as follows: “In alignment with the People's Republic of China’s ‘Go West’ campaign, the implementation of the 14+1 Agreement has led to an increase in foreign trade and a rise in the rate of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the region. This, in turn, has contributed to economic divergence within the European Union.” MethodIn this research, the hypothesis was comprehensively explored by integrating Cantori and Spiegel's theoretical framework with Policy Analysis and Econometric Modelling. The study focuses on the timeframe from 2010 to 2023, providing a robust temporal scope for analysis. ResultsAccording to the defined indicators, foreign trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) statistics between the European Union, China, and the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) were reviewed for the period of 2010–2022 (up to 2021 for FDI). The results of these reviews and comparisons reveal that CEEC maintained the highest rate of trade with the European Union and their neighboring states, reflecting complementary economies in the region and favorable conditions for regional convergence. A notable outcome of the Belt and Road Initiative and the 14+1 Agreement is the significant increase in trade between China and CEEC. Based on the data in Table 3, and after calculating the growth rate of foreign trade between China, the European Union, and these countries, the necessary information and statistics were obtained to plot Charts 2 and 3. The statistical data from these tables and graphs can be summarized as follows: EU Foreign Trade with CEEC: Chart 2 illustrates that the EU's imports and exports with Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries have experienced consistent, exponential growth overall. Table 4 shows a 5.8% growth in EU imports from CEE countries and a 5.4% growth in exports to these countries. Additionally, Table 4 identifies four points of disruption in EU-CEE trade relations, which are clearly marked in Chart 2. Overall, trade between the EU and CEE countries grew by 5.6%, reflecting steady and robust economic ties. China’s Foreign Trade with CEEC: Analysis of Table 3 reveals an 8.5% increase in China’s imports from CEE countries and a 9.2% increase in exports from China to these countries. Chart 3 confirms this growth trend, showing disruptions only at three points: 2012, 2015, and 2022. China’s trade with CEE countries has grown at a higher rate than the EU's, achieving a 9.03% increase from 2010 to 2022, which suggests deepening economic ties. A comparison of Charts 2 and 3 highlights that while the EU's trade volume remains higher, China’s rapid growth rate indicates a shift among CEE countries toward diversifying economic relations beyond the EU.A second indicator analyzed is the comparative foreign direct investment from the EU and China into CEE countries. Charts 4 and 5 indicate a rising trend in Chinese FDI since 2012, with China’s investment showing a steeper upward trajectory than that of the EU, particularly in capital flows. China's FDI growth in CEE countries reached 15.3%, surpassing the EU's 13.8% growth rate. In terms of investment stocks, China exhibited a 16.6% growth compared to the EU’s 6.7%, highlighting China’s significant advantage in FDI. These figures suggest that China has outpaced the EU in FDI within CEE countries, maintaining a stronger and more dynamic growth trend in the region. ConclusionsIn summary, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has significantly strengthened economic relations between China and most Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) through extensive economic plans and investments. This trend is clearly illustrated in the relevant charts, which highlight the growing alignment of CEEC economies with China’s higher growth rates and the deepening economic integration between the two regions. However, since 2020, the BRI has faced challenges, including the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and political disputes between China and CEEC. Despite these setbacks, the data presented in this article suggests that the BRI remains a powerful force with significant potential to further enhance economic ties between China and CEEC. Consequently, it can be argued that the BRI has, to some extent, weakened economic integration within the European Union, particularly in the realms of foreign trade and foreign direct investment.
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