روابط چین و عربستان در دوران گذار نظام بین الملل و پیامدهای آن بر جمهوری اسلامی ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
با سربرآوردن چین در مقام قدرتی جهانی و پدیدارشدن نشانه های تحول در نظم بین الملل پس از جنگ سرد، عربستان به عنوان یکی از کنشگران مهم منطقه ای، با درک چنین برداشتی بر آن شده است تا مناسبات تجاری جدیدی را با پکن پی ریزی کند. بر این اساس، رهبران عربستان سعودی هم زمان با کوشش برای کاهش وابستگی دیپلماتیک و اقتصادی به آمریکا، به دنبال فاصله گرفتن از مبادله سنتی امنیت – انرژی با ایالات متحده، بازی میان خطوط و احیای توازن در مناسبات خارجی خویش هستند. با در نظر داشت چنین تحولی، پرسش اصلی پژوهش پیشِ رو آن است که چگونه راهبرد اقتصادی نوین عربستان در تعامل با چین و در ساختار جدید نظم بین المللی، منافع ملی جمهوری اسلامی ایران را تحت تأثیر قرار داده است؟ نویسندگان با اتخاذ رویکرد توصیفی – تحلیلی و با بهره گیری از روش کتابخانه ای در گردآوری داده ها و نظریه واقع گرایی نئوکلاسیک برای تحلیل داده ها، سعی بر آن دارند تا به این پرسش پاسخ دهند. یافته های پژوهش بیانگر آن است که کوشش «ریاض» جهت توسعه مناسبات با چین، متأثر از ادراک راهبردی نوین مقامات سعودی از تحولات ساختاری نظام بین الملل، قدرت نسبی عربستان در نظم چندقطبی آینده نظام بین الملل و توان اقتصادی ریاض است و تناظر زمانی ابتکار کمربند-راه و چشم انداز 2030 می تواند بستر همکاری نزدیک ریاض-پکن را فراتر از حوزه انرژی فراهم کرده و منافع جمهوری اسلامی ایران را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد.International Order Transition; Saudi Arabia's Economic Strategy And Its Consequences On The Islamic Republic of Iran
With the rise of China as a world power and the emergence of signs of change in the international order after the Cold War, Saudi Arabia, as one of the important regional actors, has decided to establish new trade relations with Beijing. The expansion of relations between actors within the framework of the international system is based on the discovery of the need and, subsequently, the provision of mutual benefits, and the development of Beijing-Riyadh relations also follows the above principle. China's increasing need for energy resources and the security of its transmission lines, the need to diversify sources of energy imports and the need to reduce the dependence on imported oil from the Strait of Malacca, and Saudi Arabia's effort to develop its diplomatic and economic partners in line with moving towards a foreign policy and a balanced trade balance, are driving forces to expand relations and the factor of Beijing's special view on Riyadh in its economic-diplomatic activism in the Persian Gulf region. This expansion of relations occurs in a situation where the United States, feeling increasingly threatened by China's rise to power, has followed the strategy of pivoting to Asia since the Obama era and has reduced its dependence on Middle Eastern energy to a strict focus on West Asia. America's unsuccessful experience or lack of commitment in helping its regional allies, the perception of regional Arab leaders regarding America's support for Islamic awakening developments, the belief of regional Arabs regarding Washington's passivity in the face of Iran's regional presence, Obama's nuclear agreement with Iran and Biden's attempt to revive it, reducing the American physical presence and weapons in the region, such as the gathering of the THAAD system in Saudi Arabia in early 2021, the multiplicity of world economic power sources and the economic development of China, and the relative weakening of American
economic hegemony and the reduction of its distance from the world's competitors, They are the most important variables that have forced Saudi Arabia, as a middle power in the region, to revise its strategic perception and finally adjust the foundations of its foreign policy towards balancing economic-diplomatic relations and reducing dependence on a single hegemon. In this framework, the perception of the Saudi authorities towards the non-constructive activism of the United States during the developments of the Islamic awakening, strengthened the will of Riyadh to move towards the balancing of political, economic and security relations, among which, China, considering the all-round growth of its capabilities in recent years, it was considered the first option. The unveiling of Saudi Arabia's 2030 Development Initiative and China's Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, which involved connecting China to Europe by passing through Central Asia and the Middle East through ports, railways, and land routes, led to the development of China's relations with Arab states in the region. In this regard, based on the Belt and Road Initiative, China has signed a strategic partnership agreement with 12 Arab countries of the region and a cooperation document of the Belt and Road Initiative with 20 Arab-speaking countries of the region.
Accordingly, while trying to reduce diplomatic and economic dependence on the United States, the leaders of Saudi Arabia seek to distance themselves from the traditional security-energy exchange with the United States, play between the lines, and restore balance in their foreign relations. Considering such a development, the main question of the upcoming research is how the new economic strategy of Saudi Arabia in interaction with China and in the new structure of the international order has affected the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran? The authors try to answer this question by adopting a descriptive-analytical approach and using the library method in data collection and neoclassical realism theory for data analysis.
Recognizing this strategic perception of the Saudi authorities has several implications at the regional and international level. Riyadh's diplomatic, commercial and economic activism in the framework of this new perception has a serious effect on the activism of extra-regional actors and the interests of regional actors, including the Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, the adoption of a policy in line with this new approach of the Saudi authorities can only be done with a comprehensive, accurate and thorough understanding of this strategic perception, which indicates the importance of addressing the aforementioned issue. On the other hand, the lack of this recognition certainly leads to analytical weakness in terms of opinion and delay in diplomatic activism in the action scene, which makes the necessity of investigating the topic of this research even more obvious. The purpose of the present research is to investigate the domestic and international factors affecting the Saudi authorities' perception of the structural changes in the international system that have caused this country to move towards balancing foreign-economic relations and the increasing
tendency towards China. Based on this, the main question of the research is how and with what variables Saudi Arabia has established new trade relations with China and what consequences will the development of these relations have for the interests of Iran?
The question: How did Saudi Arabia establish new trade relations with China and what consequences will the development of these relations have for the interests of Iran?
Theoretical framework: In this article, neoclassical realism has been chosen as a theoretical framework due to the combination of structural level factors and internal factors to explain the foreign policy of governments. This theory shows how the structural changes of the international system by passing through transition belts such as leaders' beliefs, lead to foreign policy decisions
Hypothesis: Realizing the structural evolution of the international system and the emergence of China as a global power, the leaders of Saudi Arabia have tried to pursue a new and balanced foreign policy. With this view, Saudi Arabia has tried to strengthen security relations with the United States of America at the same time as expanding commercial interactions with China.
Key findings: Saudi Arabia's new foreign policy and the simultaneous pursuit of strengthening trade relations with China and expanding military cooperation with the United States of America, It has affected the security, economic and political interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This influence has caused changes in Iran's grand strategy.
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