تبیین داده بنیاد پیمان ابراهیم با رویکرد ژئوپلیتیکی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
از مهم ترین تحولات ژئوپلیتیکی سال های اخیر غرب آسیا، شکل گیری پیمان ابراهیم است. این پیمان را می توان نقطه آغاز تحولات بنیادی در نظم منطقه ای غرب آسیا دانست که تأثیر بسزایی بر محیط سیاسی و امنیتی این منطقه خواهد داشت. بنابراین تبیین آن با رویکرد ژئوپلیتیکی ضروری است. ارائه پاسخ مناسب برای سؤال محوری «چیستی ابعاد و مؤلفه های پیمان ابراهیم از منظر ژئوپلیتیک» و ترسیم الگوی نظری پیمان، هدف اصلی پژوهش محسوب می گردد. در این پژوهش با روش «گراندد تئوری»، مفاهیم، مقوله ها، پیامدها و الگوی نظری پیمان از درون داده ها پدیدار و رویش پیدا کرده است. به منظور افزایش اعتبار و دقت فرایندها و یافته ها، از نرم افزار(MaxQDA) استفاده شده است. یافته های این تحقیق، فرا مقوله های «عوامل شکل گیری» متشکل از 14 مقوله، «پدیده محوری» متشکل از 9 مقوله، «تسهیل گر» متشکل از 8 مقوله، «موانع و آسیب ها» متشکل از 10 مقوله، «راهبردها و اقدامات اساسی» متشکل از 10 مقوله، «پیامدها» متشکل از 18 مقوله، «اهداف» متشکل از 12 مقوله و ارائه الگوی نظری پیمان ابراهیم هستند. در نهایت می توان مهم ترین پیامدهای این پیمان را عدول برخی کشورهای عربی از آرمان فلسطین، تشدید مبارزات فلسطینیان و پویایی سیاست خارجی ایران در تعامل با همسایگان دانست.Explanation of Abraham Accord Using Grounded Theory with a Geopolitical Approach
IntroductionOne of the most important developments in recent years in West Asia is the formation of the Abraham Accord and the normalization of relations between several Arab countries and the Zionist regime. This Accord and its expansion can be seen as the starting point of fundamental changes in the regional order of West Asia; Such a matter will have significant effects on the political and security environment of West Asia in general and the Islamic Republic of Iran in particular, and the geopolitics of the region will face many changes. In order to understand its nature, characteristics, dimensions and various components, it is necessary to explain this Accord with a geopolitical approach. Providing an appropriate answer to the question of "what are the dimensions and components of the Abraham Accord from a geopolitical point of view" and drawing its theoretical model are the main goals of this research.MethodologyThe main paradigm of this project is based on the nature of research, interpretation and its strategy is inductive. The main approach in this research is qualitative, the grounded theory method and the data collection tool is semi-structured interview. The statistical population of the research includes two groups; the university professors in related scientific fields and political and security agents in related work fields. The sample size was determined based on the logic of theoretical saturation and selected by snowball sampling. For the validity and accuracy of the research process, qualitative analysis software (MaxQDA) was used.Results and DiscussionResearch findings are, meta-categories of "central phenomenon" consisting 9 categories, "formation factors" consisting 14 categories, "facilitator" consisting 8 categories, "obstacles and damages" consisting 10 categories, "strategies and basic measures" "consisting 10 categories, "consequences" consisting 18 categories, "objectives" consisting 12 categories and presenting the theoretical model of the Abraham Accord. The nature and features of this Accord are as follows: bilateral convergence, American and Zionist plan, defensive measures against resistance, West Asian strategic plan with broad political, economic, cultural, tourism and etc. Its basis has been changed from "Peace in exchange for land" to "Peace in exchange for peace". The most important contextual factors for the formation of the Abraham Accord are as follows: "change in the geometry of the world power system", "Iran deal with 5+1", "transformation in the concept of geopolitics", "fragile geopolitics of West Asia", "discord in the Arab world" and "victory of Islamic Revolution and the causal factors of its formation are as follows: "strength building in the international system", "mutual needs of members", "geopolitical expansion of resistance", "constructed common threat", "evolutions of Islamic awakening" and "weakness of Iran's foreign policy".The most effective facilitating factors of this Accord are as follows: "The United States of America", "rulers of Arab pragmatism", "internal consensus in the Zionist regime regarding this agreement", "concern and fear from resistance", "mutual interests of the members of the agreement", "the demographic structure and dominant economic approach of the people of the UAE" and "Zionist lobbies in the world". And the most important obstacles and damages are as follows: "Palestinian ideal", "Iran's neighborhood policy", "Israel's cruel and arrogant nature", "Israel's internal fragile situation", "the lack of companionship of the awakened nations" and "the failure of Arab peace with Israel".Goals of members of the Abraham Accord are as follows: establishing Israel as a natural element in the region and leaving it from geopolitical isolation, maintaining the hegemony of America in the world power system, confrontation with the progress of Iran and issuing the Islamic Revolution, confrontation with the religion of Islam, forgetting and moving away from the cause of Palestine, Iran's divergence from West Asia and decreasing its importance. They follow the geostrategic Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz with strategies such as: creating internal and economic priorities for Arab countries in order to marginalize the Palestinian issue, Iran securitization, interweaving regional capacities with the interests of world powers, outsourcing West Asia and building coalitions against resistance, establishing communication between Arab nations and Zionists and a comprehensive balance. The most important consequences of this Accord have been the deviation of a number of Arab countries from the Palestinian cause, the dynamism and revision of Iran's foreign policy towards its neighbors, the growth and influence of the Zionist regime in the southern border of the Persian Gulf, the expansion of political, economic and intelligence cooperation between the members which have some opportunities and threats. The growth of the Zionist regime's influence in Rimland and its reconstruction, and the presence of the Zionist regime in the security arrangements of the Persian Gulf Among are the most important consequences of the agreement in the long term. ConclusionsThe research findings showed that with the Abraham Accord, the pattern of behavior between the Arabs and Israel has changed and has become official and diplomatic, which is affected by geopolitical developments at various national, regional and global scales in order to build power at these levels. The designers of the Abraham Accord, while creating new domestic and economic priorities for Islamic and Arab countries in order to move away from the Palestinian cause, try to build power on these scales. Finally, the most important consequences of this agreement can be seen as the deviation of some Arab countries from the Palestinian cause, the intensification of Palestinian struggles, and the dynamics of Iran's foreign policy in interaction with its neighbors. It seems that in the case of the expansion and membership of the influential countries of the Arab world and the Islamic world, such as Saudi Arabia, a great geopolitical transformation will take place in the security complex of West Asia, and the Zionist regime will become a natural element and member in the region.
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