بندر بزرگ فاو، کدی جدید در ژئوپلیتیک کشور عراق (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
کشورهای جهان برای تقویت حوزه های ثبات ، قدرت زایی و تقویت موقعیت بین المللی خود اقداماتی را برای شناسایی و استفاده از فرصت های ژئوپلیتیک انجام می دهند که «بنادر و کریدورهای اقتصادی» نقشی تعیین کننده در این رابطه ایفا می کنند. در محیط پیرامونی ایران بنادر مهمی از جمله بندر «دقم» در عمان، بندر «گوادر» در پاکستان و بندر «فاو» در عراق در حال توسعه هستند که توسعه آنها موجب ارتقاء جایگاه ژئوپلیتیکی کشورهای دارنده خواهد شد. در میان این بنادر، طرح توسعه «بندر بزرگ فاو» نه تنها تاثیرات عمیق و برترسازی برای عراق خواهد داشت؛ بلکه با توجه به وجود زمینه های رقابت برانگیز، موجب تشدید رقابت بین عراق با ایران شده و چالش ها یا تاثیرات محدودکننده ای را نیز به ویژه در حوزه اقتصاد متوجه ایران خواهد نمود. بر این مبناست که خنثی سازی و حتی المقدور تبدیل این تهدید به یک فرصت کاربردی مستلزم بررسی جامع و شناسایی راهکارهای موثر می باشد.پژوهش حاضر به روش توصیفی تحلیلی و با اتکاء به منابع کتابخانه ای، مستندات در اختیار و... در پی بررسی آثار متعدد این طرح بر روابط ژئوپلیتیکی عراق و ایران می باشد. مهم ترین نتایج اجرای این طرح را می توان «خلق یک ارزش ژئوپلیتیکی جدید در منطقه»، «ارتقاء جایگاه ژئوپلیتیکی عراق» و «تاثیر این طرح بر موقعیت کشورهای همسایه عراق به ویژه ایران» به حساب آورد. تلاش این مقاله پس از پرداختن به تعاریف، سوابق و کلیات طرح مذکور، به بررسی میزان اثرگذاری اجرای این طرح بر کشور عراق و دیگر کشورها، منجمله ایران و سپس ارائه پیشنهادات مرتبط معطوف می گردد.Faw Grand Port, a New Code in Iraqi Geopolitics
Extended IntroductionDespite the importance and global status of the Persian Gulf region and the Strait of Hormuz, the negative effects of geopolitical and geo-economics issues and limitations have affected the interests of the oil-rich countries of this region and their Western partners, politically and economically. Among these issues is the geopolitical impasse of the Persian Gulf region and the governance-security conditions of the Strait of Hormuz, which necessitates the passage of commercial paths from this source through the Suez Canal or Cape of Good Hope in Africa; In addition to imposing time and economic costs, it has also imposed some considerations and costs, especially in the political and security dimensions, for regional and extra-regional countries. This is where the role and position of identifying the geopolitical codes of neighboring countries in the Persian Gulf region become doubly important. In this regard, countries would achieve geopolitical and geo-economics superiority through the definition and implementation of appropriate plans, while influencing the interests of their neighbors and even creating dependence for them. On this basis, during the last few decades, the countries of the Persian Gulf region have made great efforts to identify and use the effects of the geopolitical impasse of this region and to prevent the negative effects of the neighbors' activities in this area. practical solutions have been implemented; among them, we can impose the eight-year war on Iran and the occupation of Kuwait by the Iraqi Baath regime, the construction of energy transmission lines from the oil resources of the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea by Saudi Arabia, or the connection of the UAE and Saudi railway lines Through Jordan, to the occupied lands of Palestine and the Mediterranean Sea. Research MethodologyIn terms of modality, this research is an applied, and in terms of research methodology is descriptive-analytic. In some parts of this research, according to the field aspect, proof methods have used. The research sample is the elites, experts, experts in the field of geopolitics who have at least a master's degree and have a history of field observation of the project and aristocracy on the subject, related documents and documents, spatial maps, books, and articles. Results and DiscussionThe Republic of Iraq, as one of the largest owners of energy resources in the West Asia, has a very small share of the geopolitical foundations of the Persian Gulf region. For this reason, the relations, and economic activities of this country through the seas heavily influenced by other regional countries. However, with the implementation of the "Faw Grand Port" project, Iraq will become one of the international trade gateways and this port, as the largest port in the Persian Gulf, will connect the sea trade routes of the Asia to the European ports without passing the Suez Canal or the Cape of Good Hope, throughout the Syria and Turkey. This port, while having the advantage of saving time and reducing transportation costs, will solve a significant part of Iraq's geopolitical problems that arise from limited access to Persian Gulf and legal restrictions arising from the Talog line.Completing the implementation phases of this plan will bring various positive effects and benefits to the Iraq. After the removal of sanctions and political economic openings, Iraq's desire to implement this project increased; In addition, factors such as the increase in population to more than 30 million people, the destruction of the country's infrastructure due to the occurrence of three devastating wars between 1980 and 2003, and the backwardness of this country in all economic, military and political fields due to the war with ISIS and The stability resulting from this security phenomenon has played a significant role in increasing the motivation of the Iraqi authorities to implement this plan.Faw Grand Port will be the biggest positive economic development in the history of Iraq. According to the statements of some Iraqi officials, this country will occupy the first place in the trade of the region and the sixth place in the world. This port will make Iraq free from the oil-based incomes; and will provide Iraq with an income equal to three times the current oil income. Undoubtedly, the completion of this project, due to Iraq's exit from the geographical deadlock, will solve a major part of the country's geopolitical concerns. With the implementation of this port, Iraqi ports will be safe from the problem caused by the low water depth and the treaties related to the Talog line.With the entry of this project into the exploitation phase, the status of Iraq will improve outside the borders; and with international assemblies and organizations. Also, it is very likely that the country will be able to become a member of many of these influential global economic assemblies and agreements. The most obvious example of this change will be in the GCC, the increase of influence and bargaining power of Iraq. By taking advantage of the transit cooperation opportunity with Turkey, there is also the option that Iraq would use Turkey's oil infrastructure to export as much energy to the European markets as possible instead of using the Suez Canal and Cape Good Hope routes. This, in turn, would increase Iraq's oil revenues and strengthen the country's position in the world's economic and oil forums-- especially OPEC.With the emergence of Faw Grand Port as a new option for international transportation, which naturally leads to the promotion of the transit and commercial importance of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Iran's regional influence and control power in this geographical area will also increase. This means that the establishment of this port will also bring challenges to the region; and will intensify the regional competition between the member states of the GCC and Iran. In this way, the field of intensifying the competitive actions of this category of regional rivals of Iran and even the possible formation of military alliances and the participation of extra-regional forces in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz will intensify. Of course, with the completion of the Grand port of Faw project, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, who were seeking completion the railway known as PEACE to "reducing dependence to the Strait of Hormuz; will find a new option.The weakening of Egypt's international position resulting from decreasing role of the Suez Canal and the consequent negative economic effects, will also be among the consequences of Iraq's increasing role in the field of international transit. In this way, it seems that Cairo is to take a negative approach towards this plan; and as a result, the competition between Baghdad and Cairo will intensified. The occurrence of these conditions, in turn, would cause the sensitivity and mobility of the allies of these two Arab capitals.The completion of this port in the Persian Gulf, will arouse the sensitivities of the United States due to the rich benefits it will bring to East Asian countries-- especially China. The competition of USA and PRC as two economic powers of the world, which is currently being pursued through mutual economic actions reactions, and the display of US military power in the Pacific region-- specifically in the South China Sea, and China's efforts to attract the cooperation of the Gulf countries on the other hand; It will lead to the intensification of the competition between this two countries in the Persian Gulf.Regarding Europe's view of this project, it should be said that, the approach of the Green Continent countries and especially the NATOs European members towards this project will be accompanied by considerations; Because Iraq has long been one of the Russians favorite countries, and Russia's influence in this country and the experience of the joint approaches of Moscow and Ankara in the last few years towards some issues related to Europe and the United States, along with the chronic insecurity of Iraq and the activities of terrorist groups from Among the considerations that can lead to the uncertainty of European capitals to use this new transit route.The effects of this project on Turkey will be dual and contradictory; On the one hand, this project has affected the transit route from West to East Asia, which is supposed to connect Europe to China through Turkey and the countries of the Caspian basin, with the initiative of Turkey and under the title "Blue Lapis Lazuli Project". It will strengthen the economy and improve Turkey's position in the field of international transit; For this reason, it follows that Turkey's cooperation process with this plan will probably be slow and accompanied by occasional demands from Baghdad, especially in matters related to Iran and the Iraqi Kurdistan region. ConclusionsThe results of the article show the deep impact of the completion of Faw Grand Port on the Persian Gulf. The most important regional effect of this plan after improving the status of Iraq will be an increase in the geopolitical importance of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. The occurrence of this situation will in turn create certain political and security considerations for extra-regional countries, to reconsider their interactions and actions in this region-- especially the United States. Also, due to the creation of a new geopolitical value in the region, with the development of the Grand Faw port, long-term and strategic negative effects in the field of port-economy and transit will be directed at Iraq's neighboring countries- especially Iran. However, at the same time as Iraq exploits this plan Iran's sovereign role will also be strengthened due to the promotion of the importance of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf in the international arena and due to the aristocracy to this strait.
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