تحول در راهبرد ایالات متحده در موازنه گری از راه دور و رقابت های منطقه ای ایران و شورای همکاری خلیج فارس، 2021 -2001 (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
کلان راهبرد «موازنه از راه دور» یکی از راهبردهای بزرگ سیاست خارجی امریکاست که در نقطه مقابل راهبرد بزرگ «چیرگی» می تواند برای رسیدن به هدف انزوا یا برعکس حفظ هژمونی دنبال شود. اهداف اصلی کلان راهبرد «موازنه از راه دور» در سه دوره ریاست جمهوری جورج بوش، باراک اوباما و دونالد ترامپ دگرگون شد. هدف اصلی این پژوهش پاسخ دهی به دو پرسش زیر است: 1. تا چه اندازه رفتار سیاست خارجی و اقدامات امریکا در خلیج فارس در دوران ریاست جمهوری بوش، اوباما و ترامپ متفاوت بودند؟ 2. با وجود تفاوت هایی بین این سه رئیس جمهور، چرا رفتار سیاست خارجی و اقدام های امریکا در خلیج فارس بر پایه یک کلان راهبرد مشابه استوار بود؟ در این پژوهش استدلال می شود که تفاوت هایی در ویژگی های شخصیتی، سبک سیاست گزینی و ارزیابی تهدیدهای امنیتی این سه رئیس جمهور بر دگرگونی سیاست خارجی امریکا تأثیر داشته اند، ولی هر سه آنها از راهبرد «موازنه از راه دور» به عنوان یکی از اشکال موازنه قوا پیروی کرده اند. برای آزمون این فرضیه، داده های گردآوری شده با رویکردی کیفی و با استفاده از روش تحلیل رویدادهای تاریخی بررسی می شوند. روشن می شود که اگرچه از 2006 «موازنه از راه دور» کلان راهبرد امریکا در خلیج فارس بوده، اهداف آن بر پایه شرایط مختلف دگرگون شده بود. بوش در دو سال پایانی ریاست جمهوری خود تحت تأثیر ناآرامی های عراق در پی ایجاد موازنه با هدف حفظ هژمونی بود. با هدف انزوا، اوباما این کلان راهبرد را برای کاهش هزینه دنبال کرد تا بتواند پیامدهای بحران مالی 2008 در اقتصاد امریکا را مدیریت کند. در دوره ترامپ این کلان راهبرد همراه با واقع گرایی از ایده «بازگشت عظمت امریکا» تأثیر پذیرفت.Transformation in the US Offshore Balancing and the Regional Rivalry between Iran and the GCC, 2001-2021
In contrast to the strategy of preponderance, the grand strategy of offshore balancing can be pursued to achieve the goals of isolation or hegemony. The U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East has been changing from preponderance to offshore balancing, which has occasionally (and erroneously) been interpreted as the US isolationist tendency to begin the total withdrawal of its forces from the Middle East, followed by the decline of its influence in the region. The authors investigate why and how George W. Bush (2001-2009), Barack Obama (2009-2017), and Donald Trump (2017-2021) followed a similar strategy of offshore balancing, despite all their differences. The study intends to answer the following research questions: 1. To what extent were the US foreign policy strategies and its actions in the Persian Gulf different during the presidencies of Bush, Obama, and Trump? 2. Why did the three presidents follow the same grand strategy, despite the apparent differences, particularly in their worldview, leadership style and personality traits? In the research hypothesis, it is postulated that even though the U.S. pursued the strategy of offshore balancing during the presidencies of Bush, Obama, and Trump, differences in personality, policy-making style, and security threat assessments of these presidents have had an impact on the transformation of the U.S. foreign policy in the region. With a qualitative approach, the method of events and historical data analysis is used to test the hypothesis. The U.S. policies and reactions to the recent events such as the rivalries between Iran and the southern Persian Gulf countries, the political instability of Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, the great powers competition in the region are examined. International relations scholars have different ideas regarding what the strategy of offshore balancing represents, and whether a given U.S. president is an offshore balancer or not. The present study views these differences as an indication of the variations of this strategy. First, one needs to present an inclusive definition of offshore balancing, and for such a definition, one needs to identify the common elements of the various definitions given by different scholars. Different policy goals and means of implementation of offshore balancing have been discussed, but most scholars agree on two points: First, offshore balancing emphasizes the use of naval and air forces, while ground forces should be used only in very special circumstances and on a temporary basis. Second, offshore balancing assigns roles to regional actors, whether allies or competitors which must contribute to the cost of collective defense in the region on the basis of a burden and responsibility sharing formula. Variation in offshore balancing occurs at different levels; for instance, between defensive versus offensive realism, between pursuing a more offshore presence versus a more favorable balance of power. In conclusion, the authors argue that offshore balancing has been the U.S. grand strategy in the Persian Gulf since 2006, but its goals have changed in response to the need to react to different circumstances. In the last two years of Bush presidency, he was under pressure to find a balance of power arrangement that would end the war in Iraq, while achieving the hegemonic goal of democratization. The cost of upholding the current liberal global order and providing American security guarantees for US allies have adversely affected the prosperity of American people, who expect their politicians to give priority to the economic national interest. Because of the slowdown in the U.S. economy as a consequence of the 2008 financial crisis and military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, Obama followed the strategy of offshore balancing with the goal of reducing the costs of the U.S. foreign policy adventures, and finally ended up being more in favor of an ‘offshore than balanced’ strategy. During the Trump era, offshore balancing was more influenced by the idea of “make America great again,” with its touch of realism. Bush had to deal with the security implications of the September 11 attacks, and acted on the basis of offensive realism and the logic of hegemonism. Obama sought isolationism based on defensive realism, while Trump returned to offensive realism.
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