Journal of Money and Economy

The present study aims at developing an aggregate financial stability index by using banking sector indices to assess financial stability and examine if the variable of credit-to-GDP gap corresponds to its long-term trend which represents the macro-prudential indicator has co-movement with the built financial stability index? To this end, monthly banking balance sheet data were collected from the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran from March 2007 to March 2017. Co-movement of two time series was assessed at two dimensions of time and frequency through wavelet analysis. It can be observed that there is a greater relationship between the two variables at short-term and medium-term. In the short-term, there is a negative correlation between financial stability and the representative of the macro-prudential variable. The increase of the credit-to-GDP gap results in a decrease in financial stability while these variables are positively correlated at medium-term. An increase in the credit-to-GDP gap increases financial stability, whereas such a relationship cannot be observed for the long-term. Thus, it seems necessary to adopt a macro-prudential policy more at medium term.

The present study suggests a model for predicting liquidity gap, based on source and cost of funds approach concerning the daily time series data (25 March 2009 to 19 March 2018), in order to control and manage the liquidity risk. Using the family of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models, the behavior of bank liquidity gap is modeled and predicted. The results show that the APGARCH with the Johnson-SU distribution is the most suitable model for explaining the liquidity gap behavior. Based on the rolling window method the more accurate model has been selected to be the APGARCH model with T-Student distribution which provides the least error in forecasting liquidity gap.

The present study investigates the impact of financial self-efficacy on personal finance behavior. To this end, the data collected from the questionnaire have been employed. Once the validity and reliability of the questionnaire are confirmed, the relation between financial self-efficacy and the likelihood of holding a specific financial product is studied using the multivariate Probit model. Products are subsequently categorized into two distinct groups based on the type of relationship. Afterward, the relation between financial self-efficacy and the likelihood of holding the number of products in each category is evaluated using the ordered Probit model. In this study, the cluster random sampling method is employed. The results are indicative of a negative and significant relationship between financial self-efficacy and the likelihood of holding bank facilities as well as a positive and significant relationship between financial self-efficacy and the likelihood of holding time deposits, Qarz Al-Hassaneh savings account, insurance, and corporate bonds and stocks. Furthermore, it is inferred that financial self-efficacy has a positive and significant impact on desirable financial behavior and a negative and significant impact on undesirable financial behavior.

The use of technology acceptance models is a way to understand the users' attitude towards new technologies. The present study aimed to investigate drivers affecting the customers' behavioral intention to use blockchain capabilities as a financial instrument using a combination of several technology acceptance models to determine what factors encouraged users to use blockchain capabilities as a financial instrument. Therefore, determinants of the behavioral intention to use blockchain capabilities as a financial instrument were first explored by the literature review, and then the structural equation model was built according to this basis. Results of data analysis indicated that the personal propensity to trust and structural assurance beliefs directly affected the initial trust that in turn, affected the users' behavioral intention. On the other hand, task and technology characteristics directly affected the task-technology fit that in turn, affected the users' behavioral intention. Furthermore, the performance expectancy directly affected the users' behavioral intention. Results of the present research indicated that the intention to use blockchain capabilities as financial instrument came from a social need; and users were keen to use blockchain despite some limitations of this technology.

In this research, non-linear inflationary dynamics based on the concept of missing money is studied using the threshold autoregressive models based on seasonal data of the time interval (1990:04-2016:07) for the economy of Iran. The finding of the research shows that simple and Divisia liquidity growth variables are determined as threshold variables, and inflation reacts to changes in the growth of money through a three-regime process. The variables of simple liquidity growth, Divisia liquidity growth with a time lag and inflation expectations are the most critical factors influencing inflation. In both clarifications, GDP has anti-inflationary effects. In both models, the exchange rate has a stronger and positive impact on inflation than other policies under expansionary monetary policy conditions. The simple liquidity growth variable in the low monetary growth policy, due to the stimulation of economic activities shows anti-inflationary effects, and in the medium-term monetary growth, the policy explains the expected inflationary effects. Lagged Divisia liquidity growth in these policies always shows visible inflationary effects. It seems that the use of Divisia liquidity variable instead of a simple liquidity variable explains the non-linear behavior of inflation in a more satisfactory way.

Buy and sell of foreign currency is one of the banking operations and the Central Bank is responsible for formulating and setting its regulations, as well as monitoring their implementation. The essential criminal laws supporting exchange policies are; the Monetary and Banking law of the country approved 09/07/1972, the punishment of the disarrangers of country’s economic system approved 10/12/1990, the regulation law of the non-monetary market approved 11/1/2005, as well as the anti-smuggling of goods and currency, approved 24/12/2013. In this study, we investigate these rules and answer the question by the descriptive and analytical method that whether the criminal legislator’s intervention in the protection of the government communication’s policies in buy and sell of foreign currency is based on the principles including clarity and transparency, or not. We have concluded that the non-observance of some tenets of criminalization as well as the lack of attention to other laws which are approved in this area, causes ambiguity and the conflict between laws as well as controversy in the judiciary precedent. This matter eventually leads to the failure of adopting a single and coherent criminal policy which has been used to confront this illegal behavior.