Journal of Money and Economy

Journal of Money and Economy

Journal of Money and Economy, Vol. 11, No. 3, Summer 2016 (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

مقالات

۱.

Identifiability of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models with Covariance Restrictions(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلید واژه ها: DSGE model Identifiability Monte Carlo Simulation

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : 466 تعداد دانلود : 509
In this paper, we study the identification problem of parameters of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models with emphasis on structural constraints, in order to make the number of observable variables is equal to the number of exogenous variables. We derive a set of identifiability conditions and suggest a procedure for a thorough analysis of identification at each point in the parameters space. The procedure can be applied, before DSGE models are estimated, to determine where identification fails. We also use a Monte Carlo simulation and study the effect of restrictions on the estimate. The results show that the use of restrictions for estimation, when identification is reduced, leads us to inaccurate estimates and unreliable inference even when the number of observations is large.
۲.

Crypto Currencies and the Blockchain Technology: An Evolutionary Review of Money and the Payment Systems(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلید واژه ها: cryptocurrency Money Payment Systems Blockchain Return Volatility

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : 891 تعداد دانلود : 428
In this paper we utilize the main findings from the recent literature to set the economic foundation for the existence of money, its modern interpretation as “memory” (Chokerlakota 1998) and how the Blockchain technology has empowered crypto currencies to perform this role in the information age. To locate the issue in a historical perspective and in line with this strand of thought, we consider direct and indirect exchange and the Wicksell triangle and discuss the frictions under which the need for fiat money arises. More specifically, it will be argued when “reputation” (trust) is imperfect, high cost of enforcing contracts undermines the case for pure private money (credit). The corner stones of the present system, a remnant of 20th century central banks’ fiat money and “private money” issued by the banking system and the current payment system relies primarily on the technologies and centralized “trust” protocols developed before the early 1990s. The internet and the digital technology have greatly reduced the costs of gathering and storing information and thus is able to compete with the traditional payment system in the future in the niche markets. In this connection, how the Blockchain technology can complement internet technology for creation of crypto currency for payments, money transfers and asset purchases will be discussed. Finally, the paper examines whether crypto currencies can replace money in its current form. It will be shown that in the case of crypto currencies, high price volatility undermines the store of value function of money and this factor plus issues pertaining to money laundering and taxation prevents them to become a widespread form of money, though they will be used as a medium of exchange in the niche markets.
۳.

Investigating the Effect of the Perceived Value of Banking Services on the Key Indicators of Consumer Behavior(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلید واژه ها: Perceived Value Satisfaction loyalty word of mouth Banking Services Consumer behavior

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : 856 تعداد دانلود : 90
This study aims to investigate the effect of perceived value of banking services on the key indicators of consumer behavior. The study population includes the customers of private banks in Tehran City. The data collection tool used in this study is a questionnaire the face validity of which was confirmed by the experts and respondents and the reliability of which was measured and confirmed using Cronbach's alpha coefficient and construct reliability (CR). Depending on the type of the sampling method which was non-random convenience sampling technique, a questionnaire was distributed among 300 customers of banks. Out of them, 236 questionnaires were returned and analyzed using partial least squares method, which is one of the methods of structural equation modeling. SPSS20 and Smart-PLS2.0 were used for this purpose. The results showed that the perceived value of banking services has a positive effect on consumer behavior and its key indicators such as satisfaction, loyalty and word of mouth advertising. Based on the findings of this study, it can be said that the results will lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms of consumer behavior, which is an acceptable basis for maintaining and increasing customer loyalty to banks.
۴.

Implementation of Value-Added Tax on Iran Banking Services: An Application of DSGE Model(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلید واژه ها: VAT Banking Services Exempt Treatment Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : 296 تعداد دانلود : 520
In the Value Added Tax (VAT) system some goods and services, such as banking services, are exempted from taxes. Based on theoretical foundations, exempt treatment leads to several distortions and inefficiencies in the economy. In order to understand the importance of exemption on macroeconomic fluctuations as well as the fundamental role of financial intermediaries in economy shocks, this study using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model provides an empirical analysis for policy simulations with consideration of VAT on financial services under different scenarios. Accordingly, the values of model parameters was estimated via calibration method and also the model accuracy were evaluated by Brooks & Gelman test and impulse-response functions. Simulation results of the policy exercise suggest that shifting from exemption to full taxation, reduces the cost of bank, and increases the bank free resources leading to higher investment and output through more bank loans.
۵.

How Do Agricultural Subsectors Respond to Productivity Shocks? Evidence from a Bayesian DSGE Model in Iran(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلید واژه ها: Agricultural Subsectors Bayesian Estimation DSGE model Productivity Shocks

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : 330 تعداد دانلود : 308
Understanding the dynamics of productivity shocks is instrumental if we are to identify the sources of economic growth. This paper, investigates dynamic effects of positives productivity shocks to agricultural subsectors during the period from 1991-2015, by disaggregating agricultural sector in Iran into four key subsectors (crops, livestock, fishing and forestry) through an estimated DSGE model. Our Bayesian estimation results suggest that positive productivity shocks lead to an increase in output, consumption, capital, employment and real wages and a fall in marginal costs and price indexes in all four subsectors. Comparing the results across the subsectors shows that following the shocks, generally, crops and livestock have the strongest reactions and forestry has the weakest ones. Additionally, among the variables, output indicates the highest responses to the shocks. Variance decomposition analysis reveals that agricultural fluctuations are mainly explained by productivity, monetary, preference and government spending shocks.
۶.

Analysis of Legal Framework of Joint-Stock Cooperative Bank(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلید واژه ها: Cooperative Qarzol-Hasaneh (Free-Rate Loan) Ministry of Cooperatives Central Bank Principle 44 Joint Stock

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تعداد بازدید : 581 تعداد دانلود : 742
Joint-stock cooperative company is not recognized in Commercial Code of Iran and the amendment bill of the Commercial Code adopted in 1968. This business entity has a unique description because of both being cooperative and having joint stock. It is a joint-stock company that is chartered based on Commercial Code of Iran, amendment bill of the Commercial Code adopted in 1968, and Principle 44 of the Constitution. Joint-stock cooperative Qarzol-Hasaneh Bank is not involved with commercial activity; the maximum share of each real shareholder is equal to half of company’s capital at the time of establishment and during company’s function. Ministry of Cooperatives and the Central Bank monitor activities of joint-stock cooperative companies. Joint-stock cooperative bank like joint-stock cooperative company should be subjected to amended bill of the Commercial Code adopted in 1968, enforcement Act of general policies of Principle 44 of the Constitution. Formation of joint-stock cooperative bank is not possible in practice unless violating the cooperatives regulations and doing activities that are out of jurisdiction of cooperative companies. It should be noted that cooperative banks are considered as nongovernmental banks, therefore they must obey regulations expressed in rules and regulations of non-governmental banks.

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