This paper is concerned with the saddle-path stability of monetary growth rules in a two-country two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Alongside standard features of emerging economies, such as a combination of producer and local currency pricing for exports, fiscal dominance and oil exports, this model also incorporates informal labour and production sectors and examines how these features matter in the context of monetary policy in emerging economies. We estimate the model on Iran and US data for home and foreign block respectively using Bayesian estimation techniques. Under a benchmark instruments of monetary policy, we show that a Taylor-type money growth rule rather than interest rate, even up to a four period ahead forward-looking has complete stability and determinacy properties in the economy which is also hold regardless of the level of asset market participation, therefore the inverted Taylor principles does not apply in our economy. Our findings confirm the important propagation channels which are active in the emerging economies and taking into account these features is essential for any policy-related study, such as the stabilizer effect of terms of trade between formal and informal sector, buffer behaviour of informal sector which is dampened in the model of higher informal frictions, disturbance effects of credit constrained household on the business cycle fluctuations and finally, monetary policy shock which is less effective in an environment of high share of informal sector, low informal frictions, high share of limited asset market participations and a trade autarky economy.
An Analysis of Circulation of Decentralized Digital Money in Quantum Electrodynamics Space: the Econphysics Approach(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
The study aimed at showing how to create and release cryptocurrency, based on which one can introduce a new generation of this money that can continue its life in the quantum computers space and study whether cryptocurrency could be controlled or the rules should be rewritten in line with new technology. Regarding this, we showed the evolution of money and its uses in economic relations. According to the theoretical basics, the concepts, principles and rules of quantum theory in the physics economics were distributed and the use of modern money by simplified electrodynamic patterns of Richard Feynman was shown. The result showed that the subject could be tested through the physics if the system is closed, and due to the limited nature of the creation of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, with such conditions, this currency can supply the borderless economics with a new approach with infinite probabilities in the quantum paradigm. Furthermore, given the structure of cryptocurrencies, one cannot control them completely controlled and it is better to rewrite the rules for the creation, release and uses of cryptocurrencies
Political Stability, Corruption, Democracy and Terrorism In the Middle East and North Africa(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
Terrorism has been considered as a challenge with serious effect in the world as a result of instability, corruption and lack of democracy in most countries. Confronting this phenomenon requires recognizing its roots to find possible solutions. This study aims to examine the effect of some actual factors which causes the terrorism in short and long run. To this end, investigation has been conducted using statistical and regression methods using the data obtained from the 17 MENA countries. Findings indicate that in the long run, political stability and corruption controlling have a negative effect on the number of terrorist attacks, but democracy has no significant effect on terrorism. Morover, in the short term, there is also an inverse relationship between the number of terrorist attacks with political stability and corruption controlling, but unfortunately, democracy has a positive and significant effect on the number of terrorist attacks in the selected countries.
Establishment of Integrated Accounting Information Systems in an Emerging Market-Problems and Barriers(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
This research study is aimed to investigate barriers and problems of establishment process of integrated accounting information systems (IAIS) in the universities of an emerging market (Iran) in order to facilitate their establishment. The research population includes Iranian state universities’ CFO and his/her deputy, as well as IT specialists involved in the process of establishment of IAIS in those universities in 2016 and 2017. The required data was collection using a questionnaire designed and developed by the researchers in accordance with the literature (there was no standard questionnaire).The collected data was analyzed at three levels "Total population (Population) ", "CFO or Deputy" (Managers) and "IT Specialists"(Specialists). The results at “Population " level show that the most important problem is related to” design and establishment of the IAIS" and problems related to “project analysis and risk” and “plan” are the least important. Other problems are “employees“, “culture”, “managers”, “and level of information technology and information systems in the university”. From the Managers and Specialists’ point of view problems related to "design and establishment of IAIS” have the most importance. This case study would be of value to regulators, senior managers, system analysts, university authorities especially CFOs and IT managers, and researcher especially in developing and emerging markets.
Climate change is the main phenomenon that directly affects the world environment, and changes in the environment affect economic sectors differently. The most important impacts of climate change would be on enhancing the average global temperature and the decrease in precipitation. The agricultural sector is the first and most affected sector in the climate change. We examined the impact of temperature and precipitation variables on the agricultural yield for three common products namely fruits, rice and corn in 14 OIC countries including Iran. The share of employment in the agricultural sector as compared to the total employed is a control variable. By estimating the model using the panel data method over the years 1992 and 2015, the results indicate a negative effect of temperature on the agricultural sector. Precipitation has a positive effect and the share of employment in agriculture has a negative effect.
Estimation of Static and Dynamic Demand Function of Household Water in Qazvin Province and Review of the Rate of Change in Consumer Behavior Over Time(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
In this research, the demand function of drinkable water in Qazvin Province was estimated using dynamic and static methods. The required data were collected from the data of the provinces of Qazvin in the time period (1996-2016) and collected by referring to the statistical system of Statistics Center of Iran and the provincial planning and budget organization of Qazvin Province. The explanatory variables used in the model include household income, temperature (minimum and maximum), urban population, water price, rainfall, number of subscribers. The method used to estimate the static model, generalized least squares, and in the dynamic model, is a two-step generalized moment method. The results showed that the water price coefficient in the static and dynamic model is -0.217 and -0.19, respectively, which is a negative sign of the correctness of the demand law and less than one indicative of the low elasticity of water. The variable coefficient of household income in the static and dynamic model was 0.2 and 0.15, respectively, which positive and less than one, respectively, indicating the normality and necessity of water in the drinkable sector. In relation to the price of other goods, the coefficient was estimated in both negative models were -0.72 and -0.9, respectively, which indicates that water is a complementary product. Finally, the value of the variable coefficient was 0.5, which indicates that the demand for water is 0.5 times the demand for water last year.