Inflation

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of internal and external factors on the ratio of outstanding claims in those banks which are accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, we used the data obtained from 8 banks and credit institution active in the Tehran Stock Exchange and using data regression panel.  The present survey was examined over the period 2011 till 2015. The study includes three external variables (inflation, GDP and interest rates) and two internal variables (rate of return on assets and the size of the bank). The results of the hypothesis study showed that the rate of inflation, GDP and asset returns had significant negative effect on the ratio of outstanding claims. The results also showed a positive significant impact of the interest rates on outstanding claims, but there was no evidence to prove a significant impact of the banks size on outstanding claims.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of inflation and operating cycle on cash holding in Tehran Stock Exchange in the period 2010 to 2014.The sample is comprised of 103 companies which are selected by systematic elimination method and total of 515 year-firm collected. In this study for testing the hypothesis is used of linear regression and correlation. To analyse data and test hypotheses is used of Eviews software. After designing and testing hypotheses for each main hypothesis, it was concluded that inflation and operational cycle has not a significant impact on the level of firm's cash holding. The results show no significant effect of inflation through the operating cycle on cash holding.

Negative relation between unemployment and inflation is known as the Philips model, which states, when inflation is high, unemployment gently decries and when unemployment is low, salaries will increase rapidly. While economic planners of the country tend to impart this situation highly, it would fall down, because frequent increase of inflation with the hope of keeping unemployment low permanently, ultimately will cause rise in expected inflation of organizations and lead to change in their recruitment decisions. In a section of this model, it has also analyzed, relation between income, investment, and consumption. Regular Philips model with derivative deals with first and second level of calculations, however this model has faced many weaknesses and deficiencies in economic cycle of Iran. Regarding its implementation in the economy of Iran, in this research, through substitution of Caputo fractional-order derivatives, we reach out “Philips model of Fractional-order”. Moreover, by numerical calculation of resulted equations and using Maple software, we over reach to Philips curve of Fractional-order in multiple various orders. According to achieved results, this model highly depends on derivation orders and different outcomes will be acquired through various derivation orders. Acquired model in the economy of Iran (situational format in Sugar and Sugar cube Industries) has been studied through phasic technic which proves meaningfulness of relations between variables of the model.

Governments always affect the economic environment as legislators in the field of business. The economic conditions governing the market and business require different conditions and contexts for decision making and corporate execution practices. Companies and managers administering them under environmental conditions, achieve their goals by employing various earnings management methods. Hence, the present study examines the effect of governments’ economic performance on the earnings management methods used in listed companies of Tehran Stock Exchange (2004-2016) for a sample of 16 industries and 271 companies. To test the hypotheses, multivariate regression model was used. The results showed that during the research period, companies managed earnings, and while more than 70% of companies used the accrual earnings management method, there was a relationship between annual economic indicators and real earnings management, and the change in general level of prices and the political connections of states have affected the relationship. Also, the accruals-based earnings management method occurred independent of annual economic indicators and there is a significant relationship between governments changes and earnings management methods.

Since the 18th century, the western world has gone through political and economic alterations. Gold has been of economic importance over thousands of years in several civilisations. It gained international economic significance during the 19th century, when several countries officially adopted the Gold Standard. With the world becoming more intertwined, gold has found new importance for economies and investors alike. It has been a safe haven during a time of economic crisis which has been reflected on its price. This paper examines the development of gold in a changing global, political and economic environment. For investors it has become a safe haven during the crisis, but how reliable is gold? How far can investors predict gold’s worth in times of crisis and what kind of crises drives gold? The interplay of global players, governments, their policies, currency strategies and large private investors have complicated the predictability of the gold price. Hence, the present study is aimed to analyze the reliability of gold when countries are headed into crises as well as economic and political impacts on the gold price, using content and data analysis method based on library resources<strong>.</strong>

This paper focuses on developing models to study influential factors on the inflation rate for a panel of available countries in the World Bank data base during 2008-2012 . For this purpose , Random effect log-linear and Ordinal logistic models are used for the analysis of continuous and categorical inflation rate variables . As the original inflation rate response to variables shows an apparent right skewness , the log transformation in the linear mixed effect model seems necessery . In the ordinal logistic mixed effect model , as a new approach , the inflation rate variable is categorized based on two threshols to increase model predictibality and precision . These two models consider the potential serial correlation between annual infltion rates and categories through introducing some latent random effect parameters . The results of both models show that money growth , GDP , oil price and income levels of the available countries are significant predictors with increasing effect on the next year inflation rate category . Using the categorical inflation response variable yields some superior results where government expenditure , exchange rate and capital formation are also detected as significant determinants of ordinal inflation variable . Also , the random effect variance is highly significant in both models which shows the necessery need for consideration of the potential association of inflation variables across time . JEL Classifications: E17, E27, E31, E37, E47

One of the main issues in international finance is the ratio of exchange rate pass through to consumer prices. The main objective of this study is to examine the exchange rate fluctuations and its asymmetric effect on consumer prices in Iran’s economy. In the present study, the effects of positive and negative impacts of the exchange rate on inflation rate and other macroeconomic variables of Iran during the period from 1988 to 2017, in the framework of a recursive VAR model have investigated. The results indicate that exchange rate pass through in the short run is 33.5% and in the long run is 43.03%, which indicates that the exchange rate is incomplete. In addition, the results indicate the asymmetric effect of the exchange rate, which is about 38.43% increase in the exchange rate and 16.38% decrease in the exchange rate negatively reflected in consumer price inflation.

In this research, non-linear inflationary dynamics based on the concept of missing money is studied using the threshold autoregressive models based on seasonal data of the time interval (1990:04-2016:07) for the economy of Iran. The finding of the research shows that simple and Divisia liquidity growth variables are determined as threshold variables, and inflation reacts to changes in the growth of money through a three-regime process. The variables of simple liquidity growth, Divisia liquidity growth with a time lag and inflation expectations are the most critical factors influencing inflation. In both clarifications, GDP has anti-inflationary effects. In both models, the exchange rate has a stronger and positive impact on inflation than other policies under expansionary monetary policy conditions. The simple liquidity growth variable in the low monetary growth policy, due to the stimulation of economic activities shows anti-inflationary effects, and in the medium-term monetary growth, the policy explains the expected inflationary effects. Lagged Divisia liquidity growth in these policies always shows visible inflationary effects. It seems that the use of Divisia liquidity variable instead of a simple liquidity variable explains the non-linear behavior of inflation in a more satisfactory way.

Given the effects of inflation on the decline of household welfare and its impact on production and investment, identifying the factors affecting it in order to adjust inflation and achieve price stability is necessary. Therefore, using the TVP-FAVAR model, which differentiates the fluctuations in factors affecting inflation, we try to identify the effects of different shocks such as liquidity, oil revenues, spot market exchange rates, economic growth, interest rates on bank facilities, budget deficits, inflation uncertainty and unemployment on inflation in Iran. In this study, seasonal data from 1370 to 1394 are used. The results, based on the TVP-FAVAR model, reflect the fact that all variables affecting inflation have a positive effect on this variable. Due to the negative effect of changes in economic growth on inflation rate, especially from 1388 to 1394, the existence of stagflation is confirmed. The shock caused by changes in oil revenues is also an important factor in creating inflation in the economy.

Theories on the relationship between money and inflation had largely been shaped around the positive relationship and money causality for inflation before the Post-Keynesians. Since the 1980s, this idea emerged that there might be no correlation between money growth and inflation. In the case of existence, the causality is reversed, so money is endogenous somehow. However, practically there is a suspicion that the causality between money growth and inflation is not fixed and linear. According to the experience of Turkey in the last seven decades, which has experienced fluctuated inflation rates, it is supposed that the causal relationship between Broad Money Growth (BMG) and inflation is not constant. This paper examines this idea over 1961–2019 using a Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive model (MS-VAR), which allows for regime shifts. Findings show that the causal relationship between BMG and inflation has not been constant, and different regimes have generated different causality orientations. There was a one-way causality from inflation to BMG during 1971–2001 that inflation rates were high. Whereas, during 1961–70 and 2002–19, when the Turkish economy experienced milder inflation rates, there was a one-way causal relationship from BMG to inflation.

The present study aimed to investigate the effect of financial fragility on macroeconomic variables within a TVP-VAR model. For this purpose, first the financial fragility variable was calculated. Then, this study evaluated the effect of this variable on macroeconomic variables including economic growth rate, inflation rate, and exchange rate. In this study, the quarterly data for the period 2001-2020 were used. The results indicated that financial fragility had a negative effect on economic growth but a positive effect on exchange rate and inflation by creating uncertainty in the economy. In other words, financial fragility in Iran increased economic fluctuations by reducing economic growth and increasing inflation and exchange rates.

This article examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the Turkish economy in this period 2004:01-2014:12. This relationship is explored in two ways: a) with the effect of structural breaks; b) without the effect of structural breaks. In fact, with regard to the main structural break have occurred over this period, we examine whether structural break has affected the causal relationship between these two variables or not. Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models are used to obtain inflation uncertainty. The EGARCH model has been identified as the most appropriate model for inflation uncertainty. Lee-Strazicich test is applied for checking any structural break in inflation and inflation uncertainty series. Then, the relation between inflation and its uncertainty is tested using Granger causality Test. This study shows that the structural break has no effect on the Friedman-Ball hypothesis. This hypothesis is supported whether with the structural break or without the structural break. But Cukierman-Meltzer’s view is affected by the structural break. Since this hypothesis imply that inflation uncertainty causes inflation, so politicians need to implement policies that pay more attention to inflation uncertainty.

Background: Sports Investments is one of the most unique sports events, in the country dealing both with collectors and dealers. Aim : The purpose of this study was to compare the sports investment o Iran in 2016 and 1998. Therefore, we estimate the value of the sports investment sector and share of total investment, GDP, GDSP and compare with 1998 in Iran. Materials and Methods: In this study, national accounts were used. Most of the basic data fare available in a decentralized manner in the Statistics Center and the Program and Budget Organization of Iran. Due to achieving real changes in sports investment between 1998 and 2016, prices in 1998 was considered as the base year and were considered. Then using the price index of the desired years, the effects of inflation were eliminated and growth real was calculated. Results: The results indicate that investment in sport in 1998 was 360 billion Rials, which is 0.43% of total investment, 0.1% GDP, and 26.2% of GDSP. Also, investment in sport in 2016 was 15449 billion Rials, which is 0.46% of total investment, 0.11% GDP and, 73.38% of GDSP. Investment in sport in 2016 compared to 1998 had 2347% real growth. Conclusion : Although, investment in sport in 2016 compared to 1998 has grown, but it is very small compared to the total investments. Results also show the major share of the public sector and the low participation of the private sector.

Economic growth is a major goal for developing countries; governments therefore strive to create favorable conditions and allocate necessary resources for the prosperity of their nations. This study examines the impact of International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans, along with other macroeconomic variables, on the economic growth of selected countries in the D8 group. The study utilizes panel data covering the period from 2001 to 2020, and employs a panel data method to investigate the effects of explanatory variables on growth. The research findings indicate that IMF loans have had a positive impact on the economic growth of member countries. Furthermore, IMF loans have contributed to the promotion of structural reforms and trade liberalization, which further enhances economic growth. Other variables, such as foreign direct investment, labor, and exports also had a positive impact on economic growth in the D8 countries. However, an increase in inflation rate has been found to have an adverse impact on economic growth. Therefore, economic policymakers in the D8 countries should seek loans for economic growth from the IMF and invest in projects that promise high returns. This study contributes to the existing literature on the relationship between IMF loans and economic growth in developing countries, and provides valuable insights for policymakers in D8 countries. The findings suggest that prudent borrowing, along with strategic investment in high-return projects, can help these countries achieve sustained economic growth.

In recent decades, many countries have improved systematic control over monetary policy and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. There is a great literature on how to conduct a monetary policy. A lot of macroeconomists (for example Taylor, McCallum, Woodford and others) proposed specific monetary policy strategies, regimes and rules. This paper considers a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE), and two basic factors have been applied. The first one is a belief that monetary policy has impact on real economic activity in the short run. This effect comes from the presence of rigidities, which give rise to non-neutral effects of a monetary policy. The second factor is a considerable improvement under theoretical frameworks used for monetary policy analysis. The research also presents a sensitivity analysis of the optimal rules to deep structural parameters and investigate properties of an optimal simple rule with respect to prevailing type of shocks. Finally, the study highlights how an optimal policy rule depends on model structure, on the model calibration and nominal rigidities. According to the research findings, based on the theoretical expectations, the effect of a positive shock inflicted on the government investment leads to increase and gradual accumulation of fixed capital formation in the public sector. Among estimated parameters consumption is first affected and reduces, then employment increases consequently, finally production will also be affected. Also with the shock of oil revenues, increased oil revenues results in public investment at first, because the increase in oil revenues, the government increases development expenditure. Though increase in development expenditure is more than Increase in current expenditure. Enhancing development expenditure & construction spending causes total spending increase and as a result of increased production of oil income, consumption and total investment will rise. This increase leads to inflation too. Though by increasing the inflation resulted from oil revenues, the monetary authority will react through reducing the growth rate of the monetary base.