Scenario

Iran is one of the most important oil and gas producing countries in the world with 153.8 billion barrels of crude oil and 33.5 billion cubic meters of gas has 9.3% and 18% share of total oil and gas reservoirs, respectively. Rich hydrocarbon reservoirs along with a special geographical location are of the most important competitive advantages of Iran. The oil value chain has a special place in the social, economic structure and level of development of Iran. In policy-making, especially in global equations and in the long run, where uncertainty is an integral part it is necessary to pay attention to this area. As a strategic knowledge, futures studies can play an important role in mapping the future. In current study, the possible and plausible futures of Iran's fossil energies (oil and gas) in the 2035 horizon are presented in the form of four scenarios. In an environment where variables are dynamic and constantly changing and uncertainty is high, using scenario building methods is preferable for long-term horizons. In this study, 30 drivers with high uncertainty and impact on the future of Iranian oil and gas were produced. Using the cross impact analysis model and the balanced impact model, out of 41,472 possible scenarios, 10 scenarios with maximum compatibility were obtained, that presented in four scenarios namely: clean scenario (low carbon), a bipolar Middle East scenario, a cooperation and development scenario, and finally a postponed dream scenario.

The security-based futurology of political units is a type of futurology focusing on geographic areas to assess their security status in the future. The Caspian region as one of the regions facing various factors has gained geopolitical significance, has a wide range of probable futures. The operational objective of this study is to identify the criteria affecting the security of this region and its final objective is to delineate an optimal security-based future for the region through a future study approach. It is a qualitative case study being formulated based on some qualitative and quantitative models and the relevant literature is used as the basis for classifying security standards into six groups of military, economic, spatial, sociocultural, political and environmental. the results were used to present 18 criteria of this region security. Then, 26 questionnaires were distributed among a group of faculty members of geopolitics from the universities of Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. The collected data were analyzed using the combined mean TOPSIS method and key criteria of the Caspian region security were extracted. The findings indicated that the three key criteria of joint military and weapons investment, commercial relations and human development as the most critical geopolitical criteria of security in this region formed eight security scenarios and finally the scenario based on ‘regional joint military and weapons investment, free trade, and the homogeneous human development’ with higher scores were introduced as the criterion for the delineation of security perspective for the leaders of countries in this region.

Undoubtedly, the present is the age of organizations and custodians of these organizations are humans, humans who, by possessing the greatest source of power, that is, thinking, can create the causes of excellence, movement and growth of organizations. By integrating effective talent management strategies into their workforce programs, organizations can use proven methods and systems to properly optimize human capital resources to increase their competitive advantage and maintain their market share. In this article, the system dynamics method is used in the design of the talent management system model. In this research, using articles, library sources, and using the opinions of experts and experts of the National Petroleum Products Distribution Company, as well as academic experts in the field of talent management, cause and effect diagrams have been drawn. Vensim software has been used to design the dynamic model of the system and the variables of talent alignment, human resources empowerment, organizational strategy and talent evaluation are the accumulation variables. The talent management model is specified as the final accumulation variable. Other variables are communication skills, mental characteristics, moral values, flow variables, and finally, five scenarios were developed to analyze the talent management system.

This research aims to identify the factors that influence the growth of cultural tourism in Iran and propose a corresponding model. Following the identification of these factors, a scenario is written to optimize their utilization. The research employs a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to achieve its objectives and finalize the factors. Semi-structured interviews are conducted with experts in the field. In the second phase, after the formal validity of the factors is confirmed, their fuzzy cognitive mapping and scenario are designed using the FCMapper and Pajek software programs. As the results show, the factor of “creating investment opportunities and attracting financial resources in the field of cultural tourism” is the most influential, while the factor of “providing diverse and creative services in Iran’s cultural tourism” is the most impressionable for the development of cultural tourism in Iran. In the task of scenario writing, it has been discovered that, by focusing on attracting financial resources, managers can enhance the infrastructure, create a context for interaction with other countries, identify new target markets, and offer creative services to Iranian cultural tourists through diverse tours. The findings can help stakeholders, managers, and policymakers in Iran’s tourism industry design and develop plans and strategies for the growth of Iran’s cultural tourism

INTRODUCTION: Considering the location, the frequency of faults and the probability of earthquake, district 20 is distinguished from other areas as the most dangerous region of Tehran. Due to the uncertainty of the time of the previous destructive earthquake, the probability of activation of these faults is very high. METHODS: Regarding the exploratory nature of this research, the environmental scanning technique was used, and due to the dominant approach of this research, which is future research, the Delphi technique was used. Structural analysis has been used in MicMac software to analyze data. FINDINGS: The results of the dispersion of the variables indicate the instability of the system in the studied area, and accordingly, five categories of variables were identified. CONCLUSION: The results showed that based on the quantitative analysis of the Scenario Wizard software, three golden, static and crisis scenarios were obtained for the 2051 horizon of district 20, which is the most valid scenario related to the static scenario.