District 20 of Tehran

INTRODUCTION: Informal settlements in cities are one of the most vulnerable regions to natural disasters, including earthquakes. The investigation of the vulnerability of Tehran's 20th District to earthquakes revealed that the plans and measures taken to make this area more resilient were unsuccessful. This research was conducted to systematically identify and analyze the key drivers effective on the resilience of District 20 of Tehran against earthquakes. METHODS: The present study was mixed (quantitative-qualitative) with an analytical-exploratory nature, and the statistical population consisted of a group of 35 experts in the two fields of "futuristic approach" and "resilience". The Delphi technique was utilized in this research, and the obtained data were analyzed in MicMac software using structural analysis. FINDINGS: The findings obtained from the distribution of variables in the axes of influence and dependence of factors in MicMac software indicated the instability of the system within the scope of the study, based on which, five categories of variables were identified. CONCLUSION: According to the high score of direct and indirect influences of the factors, 11 main factors were identified as the key drivers affecting the resilience of District 20 of the Tehran metropolis against the earthquake.